Quick Look at Final 1/8 and 3/8ths for Derby contenders.
 

I did a quick run-through of the Derby contenders for the final 1/8th and final 3/8s for their 9f final prep. The times are in 1/10 sec.

Some horses only ran 1 1/16 and others are non-US runners for which I don't have access to splits which I have indicated they are indicated. Also for La. Derby horses ( *) I did a quick conversion and will be going back to check these numbers. Also if a horse had a prior 1 1/8 race as a 3 year-old I ran those numbers and they are indicated by a ( ).

I will be going back to check all of these in the next few days. I may also try to extrapolate out the 1 1/16 horses to get a rough estimate and see where they stand.

Horse/ Final 1/8 of final prep / Final 3/8 of final prep
Sierra Leone 12.9 (12.1) 38.0 (36.9)
Fierceness 12.6 36.8
Catching Freedom 12.1* (12.6) 36.1*(37.3)
Stronghold 13.1 38.7
Resillence 12.9 (13.1) 37.8 (38.0)
ForeverYoung (JPN) Non-US
Endlessly 12.2 (12.0) 36.5 (36.7)
Dornach 13.9 40.1
Just a Touch 13.7 39.6
Track Phantom 12.9* (12.8) 37.7* (37.5)
West Saratoga 12.9 37.9
Just Steel 12.3 37.5
Honor Marie 12.3* (12.5) 36.7* (37.2)
Domestic Product 1 1/16
Catalytic 13.6 39.3
Deterministic 14.5 41.1
Society Man 12.9 38.0
Mystic Dan 12.8 37.9
No More Time 1 1/16
TO Password (JPN) Non-US
Grand Mo the First 13.6 39.8
Common Defense 13.0* 37.9*
Epic Ride 14.1 40.0
Hades 13.9 39.7
Uncle Heavy 13.0 38.8
El Grande O 13.6 39.3
Sieze the Grey 13.6 (12.6) 39.9 (37.6)
Le Dom Bro 15.1 42.3
EJ Won the Cup 13.7 39.6
Pandagate Non-US
Tuscan Gold 12.5 37.5
Protective 12.8 37.3
Liberal Arts 12.4 38.4
Encino 1 1/16

Are those RAW time fractions or do they factor in the track’s variant and wind conditions?

One might also want to consider the overall pace of each race being utilized as well as the final (adjusted) time of those particular races.
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These are raw times, based on the horse's incremental times.

T O Password- 13.2 final 200m 37.9 600m; course starts and ends on an incline with a corresponding decline on the back stretch.

The undulation is a net 2m, basically up 4m, down 4m, finish up 2m over the final 200m.

None of this probably means anything but I’ll be using him underneath. I thought he looked pretty professional in the fukuryu, for only a second start. Need someone weird to blow up these exotics.

Good job. I haven’t done this work in some time. Stan’s work was amazing. I’ve been working with Valuecapper, but I still somsider Stan’s work when the derby comes around. I still have his book and emails he sent me when we corresponded. He’s greatly missed.

Here is a link to an article from Bloodhorse where they calculated the final 3/8s and 1/8. They projected for the 1/3/16 races, races at 1 1/16, and the 2 Japanese horses. May numbers were taken from Bris PPs and are similar and any differences don't change those qualifying for 13.0 @ last 1/8 and 38.0 @ last 3/8ths. However, I do question the projected times for Domestic Product,


https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...m_medium=email

Those numbers at Bloodhorse are interesting. Street Sense sticks out like a flaming thumb.

Thanks for the numbers hondo, it sure helps figuring out who's gonna pass the "gut check" (as Lukas says) at the quarter pole.

I think that year the Blue Grass was run on a synthetic track surface. Probably a factor with his fast closing fractions, not that he wasn't a really nice horse too.

A very interesting and well-articulated article! As a former speed handicapper myself, it was nice to read how someone else legitimately understood and can portray how early fractions can affect final fractions.
I have always preferred to favor animals that are fast at both ends of a race. :ThmbUp:

I was skeptical of the numbers they put on Sierra Leone as neither would qualify him on the old Stanley Caris system. That said, some credit could be considered for a less than stellar, albeit winning, trip. The raw 3/8th in the BG was 39.25 and SL made up 6 lengths = ~1.2 second adjustment = 38.05, within a few hundredth of the Blood Horse.

I think I'll let anything not in the top 12 of that list beat me in the trifecta.

The only one not in the Top 12 that I would be afraid to leave out of the tri, is Just A Touch. What's your thoughts on him?

Bloodhorse highlights two runners that don't make the 0:38 cutoff, Sierra Leone and Stronghold. My takeaways from those performances are very different. From the article:

"Sierra Leone unleashed an eye-catching homestretch rally to win the Blue Grass"

Stronghold "finished slower than ideal when battling to a tenacious victory in the Santa Anita Derby"

Sierra Leone won in the stretch easily after working through a trip. Stronghold prevailed in a tight stretch duel after tracking the pace uneventfully.

Looks like Stronghold gave all he had to beat Imagination, but still logged an uninspiring final 3/8. Sierra Leone blew by Just a Touch, who showed just a bit more finish after keeping pace and grinding out the lead in the stretch.

I suppose you could argue that Stonghold did no more than he had to, but Sierra Leone delivered the goods with time to spare.

Thanks!7

Sierra Leone did indeed deliver the goods in the BlueGrass. He didn't appear to be pressed even a bit when he was passing horses in the final 1/8th like Nuns standing at a Bus stop. He has that long athletic stride that simply eats up the ground beneath him. I believe that he will relish the added distance of 10 furlongs.

I think his final prep was too slow but the horse only has three races and has room to improve. The big Brisnet EP pace figures remind me a bit of Battle of Midway at SA some years back who managed to snag a piece of the trifecta at a big price. TmeformUS pace was also hot. The raw clock splits supports the light Brisnet 83 LP figure. A ~26 second 3/4-mile split doesn't inspire win confidence, nor does the ~39 second final 3/8th. This is what I'd argue makes Sierra Leone's late kick in the BG a bit deceiving to the eyes. The speed was gasping in the lane. On the other hand, Equibase scored the race quite high. Absolute head scratcher for me.

I see a lot of 100+ Brisnet EP2 horses in this field. This suggests strong potential for a contested pace that Just a Touch could be part of. Interestingly, there are fewer (than usual) LP 96+ horses in this field. My projected pace sets it up well for those types. Only three have a 100+ LP in most recent start and those include Catching Freedom, Fierceness, and Domestic product, the latter aided by an absolute snails pace early. I'd have a hard time leaving the first two out of a trifecta, and the Chad Brown isn't a total toss from a gimmicks clunk up at the expected price.

Steve Haskin pointed out that only three horses since 2000 have won the Derby coming off a Thoro-Graph figure slower than a 3 1/2. The qualifiers include Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Just Steel, Just a Touch, Catalytic, and Mystik Dan.

I suppose Catalytic could be this year's version of Instilled Regard finishing 10 lengths back in a big prep then blow up a super at massive odds. Who knows what concoction will come out of Saffie's chem lab. Forever Young looks iffy in works. The other's would be tough to toss from a tri. The two chalks are very legit from a sheets perspective.