Head-scratcher at Parx
 

The first race at Parx today(Monday) featured a competitive field of 7 horses (after the obligatory 2 late scratches)...and after spending considerable time handicapping it, I concluded that the :9: would be a solid bet if I could get odds of about 3-1. The only other serious contenders in the race seemed to me to be the :5: and the :8:...and they shared identical front-running styles which figured (to me at least) to be a disadvantage in a race seemingly loaded with early speed. The :9: figured to get a perfect trip in the race...and had the ability to take proper advantage of it. But, to my great surprise, I noticed that the nondescript :4: was getting hammered on the board...eventually going off at the unbelievable odds of 3-2!. Although I make it a point to never ignore seemingly illogical betting action such as this, I couldn't persuade myself that the "overbet" :4: was a legitimate contender in this race...and I proceeded (although gingerly) to place my money on the "logical" :9:.

The :5: and the :8: jumped into the predictable early speed battle, my :9: settled into the golden trip that I had envisioned, the overrated :4: was languishing in last place...and all was right with the world. Alas...my smug feeling was short-lived, because the :4: uncorked a furious late rally which saw him swallow up the entire field...including my "logical" :9:. And I have come here hoping to learn that someone here can make a convincing case for the betting action on this :4:...otherwise, my dark suspicions are sure to interfere with my sleep.

Thanks in advance. :ThmbUp:

No big mystery here Gus, it's simply.....PARX..:lol:

Watch race #5 today.....same huge closing kick from the :9:, only difference was this horse paid 15-1 instead of 3-2....AND ran down the 3-5 Favorite!

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...rx-on-10-15-18

When a longshot wins the race, it doesn't bother me much. The only time I get annoyed is when the longshot wins...at odds that are reserved for the favorite.

The info I use has that the 2 and the 4 are the only horses that were not racing in restricted company in their last few races; so everything else in there was rising in class today. I'd take the 4 over the 2 based on form.

Also, this Howard Brown Jr. character seems like a pretty bettable trainer; 31% off a trainer change (5 out of 16 is a pretty useful sample size).

Wouldn't touch him at all at 9-5, but I can see it happening. Question that has to be answered is "who is Dave Cannizzo (trainer in previous race)" and what's his relationship with Howard Brown Jr? Note that there's just a trainer change, the horse wasn't claimed out of its previous race.

Mike

You're talking like you're playing 4-D chess, maybe you should give up the ponies...:cool:

Nothing terrible shocking here. The price can be anything, dependent on how much those that think the horse will win decide to risk at the windows.



Big class edge IF they can get the horse right. Seems to like wet tracks as well, earning a back 104 fig


Would I bet the 4 at those odds? Probably not.


But, I'd bet less than zero on the 9 at 7/2, whose trainer is 0-36 with an 8% itm. Sure the horse ran a decent second. Not the point.




Dave Cannizzo, is the NY trainer. Obviously, this horse not fit to run in NY for whatever reason, but appreciates the trees and lakes of PA

Tell me...if YOU were making a betting line for this race, what price would you list the :4: at?

Better yet, since your suspicions were raised on the :4: being pounded down for no apparent reason, did you make a 4-9 exacta saver to cover your investment in the race?....It sounds like you did not.

No...I did not. But I bet less on the :9: than I normally would.

My selection process had the :4: as a clear legit favorite for whatever reason. Now I reviewed this in my logs tonight because of this post. I am surprised at the late action in the pools on this horse, I'm ok at calculating final odds, but not so this race.

my computer dutch bet (2 horses to win)
ROI upon bet: 96 and 107
ROI after race: 40 and 120

I think I'd chalk this up to too much late action and move on, no sense in losing sleep over it or even trying to rationalize it it's a little mini black swan. :sleeping:

4 horse mystery
 

2nd race over the track,new owner,new trainer,the race is loaded with speed,This horse comes from off the pace,Is a huge class drop,And second time in for a new low.Get some sleep now.

Didn't you just post the other day about this kind of betting action?

I can't speak to the odds since I don't have the PPs for the respective races but the winner's performances do make sense when looking at the early pace relative to the slow final times. In the 5th race in particular, the optical illusion of a "huge closing kick " was actually the result of the race utterly collapsing after running an opening quarter in 21 and change in a race with a final time of 1:13 and change. The winner merely just wisely layed far off it allowing him to far outrun his odds.

You are in error, the opening 1/4 was :22.1, the 1/2 in :46.2 and the 5/8 in 1:00, and this is a MSW finishing in 1:13.3.....guess that's what you get from PA-bred races.