Who Do You Like?? (✮DEL MAR Race#4 FRIDAY✮)?
 

Del Mar Friday, November 30, 2018
Race 4

7 Furlongs. ⒻClm 16000 Purse $24,000 FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD.

https://images4.alphacoders.com/164/...920-164066.jpg

Interesting race.

post7 Eskenforadrink could step up in class and fire for Peter Miller.

There are several interesting horses. I'll break down my opinions more as time unfolds.

Del Mar Race #4:


:1: We Will Re Joyce Likes to win, and has the figures to back up the wins. Trainer change is a drawback, so is the distance. Will be bet, but not by me. Pass.

:2: Cinnamon Twist Likely favorite, but the 6 months away after the claim and the drop are not good. Would not surprise me, but I will loose money if she does.

:3: Empress of Lov Gets DVD and that is a help, also is the only horse to win in ALW company. Speed figures are mostly light but shows a couple that can compete. Second race since a break and back in 13 days. Looks to be set for a win, but I think looks are deceiving. Pass.

:4: Atrevida Steady runner needs the speed to stop and no one else to close. That will not happen. Pass.

:5: Bragging Rights Beat a couple of others in here in her last, but was at a lower class. has not competed at this level. Pass.

:6: Ciao Luna Light weight is another steady runner. Might get a piece, but not a big one. No thanks.

:7: Eskenforadrink Improving runner wired MC company in last at this distance. Trainer can keep her improving also. Bet against for me.

:8: Pulpitinthesky Horse should really like this distance. Jockey switch is a positive. Sits a clean trip and can get by the others in the late stages. My pick.

:9: Easter Dream Just not good enough without a lot of improvement. Pass.

Thanks Jay and thanks to the voters so far.

Morning line published today and I think it is reasonable enough.

contender overview
 

:1: We Will Re Joyce Tossing from the exacta.

:2: Cinnamon Twist She's a bit of a wildcard at a short price, but must be respected.

:3: Empress of Lov Looked good physically last time vs better. Should compete. Has the look of a bridesmaid type.

:4: Atrevida Interesting as a possible long-shot key to round out a tri or super. Seems to be doing well enough, just hasn't shown any talent.

:5: Bragging Rights Tossing from the exacta.

:6: Ciao Luna Looks terrible, but I like the price and I like that she has 2 works since the last in a new barn. If she is really big odds, I may pair her with the #4 in those underneath keys.

:7: Eskenforadrink I'm not in love with this filly, but she has talent, and draws into a weak bunch. Depending on how the #2 runs, her 'class hike' may be more of a stroll.

:8: Pulpitinthesky She looks slow to me. She can run her race, and close into a piece.

:9: Easter Dream Dream trip last time, low ml-odds, slow speed figs... I won't bet her to win.

:2: and :7: are the only contenders that I can see winning this race outright.

If neither 2 nor 7 'fire', it leaves things more wide open... B's :3::8: are definitely in that group, but I also think that C's :4: and :9: have a longshot chance in that scenario...

Talamo won with #2 Cinnamon Twist 3 times, but is riding #5 Bragging Rights.

I'll take #5.

Final Thoughts...

My 2 A's would be the :8: and :3:, the B's would be the :1:,:2: and :7:.

The problem with this race is all of them have drawbacks.

:8: Has a declining speed figure pattern. Even if you toss the last turf try, you still get that. She is my pick, but the odds have to be there. 6-1 or higher.

:3: Her best effort can get her very close here. But she has to run one of the best races of her life to do it, if the odds on the :8: get up there would consider dutching if she is 5-2 or higher.

:1: Has not tried the distance and the trainer change is a negative. Figure wise is probably the second best horse here, but with the trainer change can not be played.

:2: Has run the best races of the group. 6 months on the bench and the drop in class is enough of a warning to not play this one either.

:7: Beat Maiden Claimers on a uncontested lead for only win of her life. Not a encouraging speed figure in the win also. Can improve, but the odds would have to get out of hand on her, and that probably will not happen.

In the end the main focus is the odds on the :8:, and if the odds are not there, pass, pass, pass.

early bet ideas
 

Pick-3's from Race 2
50c 23458/13467/7 = $12.50
50c 358/347/7 = $4.50
$1 5/347/7 =$3
50c 358/347/237 =$13.50

10cent Superfectas keying 3 in every slot and the 4 second/third/fourth, with the 1 and 5 out of the exacta:

3/4/All/All
3/2,3,4,6,7,8,9/4/A
3/2,3,4,6,7,8,9/A/4
2,3,4,6,7,8,9/3/4/A
2,3,4,6,7,8,9/3/A/4
2,3,4,6,7,8,9/2,3,4,6,7,8,9/3/4
2,3,4,6,7,8,9/2,3,4,6,7,8,9/4/3

Good Luck Jay, Money :ThmbUp:

Win contenders :5::7::8:

:5: looks to have the most potent late kick of these in here.
:7: steadily ascending figs for Miller has to be respected.
:8: jock switch is huge, would have to run her best race to win, but should be a fair price.

Have to toss the :2: as many others have said...6 months on the shelf and a drop with some average works doesn't do much for me.

Love the :6: Ciao Luna underneath. Stute 50% itm first off claim, two decent works since claim, second at this level 2 back. Good enough for me.

Tri :5::7::8:/:6:/:5::7::8:
:5::7::8:/:5::7::8:/:6:

My pick if I had to take one would be :5: if I can get 4-1 or better.

Edit to add that the :3: is the horse I'm most afraid of leaving off. Love DVD but when will the horse fire? 6-0-0-2 at DMR. Might use in the 3rd spot in the tri

I like the :8: too.


Ex :3:, :8: / :2:, :3:, :8:

scratches
 

scratched the #s :4: and :8:

early bets after scratches
 

Pick-3's from Race 2
50c 23458/136/7 = $7.50
$1 358/13/7 = $6
$3 5/3/7 =$3
50c 358/13/237 =$9
50c 358/3/237 =$4.50

Race 4 verticals
$2 'cold' exacta 7/3 =$2

50cent Trifectas:
3/2679/2679 = $6
2679/3/2679 = $6
2679/2679/3 =$6
$1 27/3/2679 = $6
$1 27/2679/3 = $6
$1 TBX 237 = $6

Dime Super:
27/2367/23679/23679 = $3.60