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-   -   Delaware 10/11-Class Hcp Method (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=141248)

FakeNameChanged 10-11-2017 09:50 AM

Delaware 10/11-Class Hcp Method
 
Race 5- Del-5.5 f.-4000 n1y-Purse 10k-10/11/17

Using Class Hcp method: Eliminate the 1, 3, 4, 10, & 11 for recency. Elim. 1 for form for starters.

:1a: Synchronous 3-1 ML 30% - 6194 (3-1) 4 pts.- Qual 2nd - 6 bl’s @ 8000

:2: Carolina Speed 4-1 ML 44% - 4189 (2-2) 4 pts.-Qual ?? 8th-31 bls’ on turf. 2LR > 5 mos.

:5: Mr. Game Seven 5-1ML 10% - 3419 (6-3) 9 pts.-Qual. 3rd - 1 bl. @ 4000

:6: Oxford Street 10-1 ML 25% - 1193 (4-5) 9 pts.-Qual 2nd -4.5 bl’s @ 5000b

:7: Portent 8-1 ML 42% -4015 (2-2) 4 pts.-Qual 4th-6 bl’s @ 8000

:8: Faithful Servant 15-1 ML 16% - 840 (5-6) 11 pts. -Qual 4th-4.75 bl’s @ 4000

:9: Nico’s Prize 6-1 ML 50% - 2700 (1-4) 5 pts. - Qual 2nd - hd @ 4000

So we have three horses tied at 4 points with a 4th horse close behind at 5 pts. I so want to put a NQ next to :2: Carolina Speed since his last race was dismal on the turf, and we have to go back over 5 months to get a qualified race on dirt. However, his huge drop looks formidable. So I get :2: Carolina Speed first for now; :7: Portent, :1a: Synchronous, & :9: Nico’s Prize.

I said in the Hcp Method thread I give “little” consideration to speed. But when three horses are tied with the same numbers, I do two things to break ties. List the last two speed ratings(same dist) and /or look at EPS for this year only. In both cases the :2: wins in both categories. The :1a: is competitive with :2: for SR’s and the :7: beats the :1a: for EPS this year only.

For Races 1 & 2 at Delaware, see Handicapping Thread.

FakeNameChanged 10-11-2017 12:54 PM

Race 4-Del 10/11
 
R4- MSW 34K -6 f.

:1: Pucon 6-1 ML FTS (16% trnr)-scratched at Parx recently
:2: Just Flashy 4-1 50% - 5270 (1-1) 2 pts. Qual 2nd -5 @ same level
:3: Under The Graydar 8-1 ML FTS (18% trnr-Greg Sacco)
:4: Create Again 2-1 ML 0% - 3740 (2-2) 4 pts. -Qual -3rd 6.25 Bl's @ same
:5:Talon 3-1 ML FTS- (24% trainer)
:6: Scurlin 10-1 ML FTS (0% trainer ?)
:7: Settle All Scores 8-1 Ml (18% trainer-Greg Sacco)

So with 5 FTS'rs, we have the :2: Just Flashy at (1-1) 2 pts.(top pick) and :4: Create Again (2-2) 4 pts.(2nd pick). I'm also using the :1: Pucon FTS due to him scratching at Parx.

FakeNameChanged 10-11-2017 02:29 PM

Race 6-Del 10/11
 
R6-Del- 6f- 6250 n2L-12K purse


:1: Blumin Sweetheart 20-1 ML 0% -$765 (5-6) 11 pts.- Qual-5th-7.5 bl's
:2: Sweet Plebe 12-1 ML 14%-1294 (4-5) 9 pts.-Qual 4th -2.75 bls
:3: Leapt 4-1 ML 0% -2376 (5-3) 8 pts.-Qual -Up close @7500
:4: Tybee 3-1 ML 52days l/o (33%-2372)- NQ recency, only win after layoff?
:5: Sweet Tandy 6-1 22% -1300 (3-5) 8 pts.-Qual 2nd-nk same
:6: Sunshineinmypocket 15-1 (13%-866) -NQ 6th-9.25 bl's
:7: Makeyourselfathome 5-1 13% -2062 (4-4) 8 pts.-Qual. 3rd-5.5 bl's @10k
:8: Redeeming Love 8-1 22% -2531 (3-2) 5 pts.-Qual. up close @ 25000
:9: Nerve Love 10-1 25% -3726 (2-1) 3 pts.-Qual 2n LR 3-2.75 bls' @12500
:10: Lady Gregoria 6-1 53% -1227 (1-5) 6 pts. -Qual. 4th -5-3/4 bl's

:9: Nerve Love at (2-1) 3 pts. is first choice; :8: Redeeming Love (3-2) 5 pts. is 2nd; :10: Lady Gregoria (1-5) 6 pts. is third. The :4: Tybee, the layoff horse is the danger who would be a (2-3) at 5 pts. if qualified.


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