Louisiana Derby
 

Excited for the premier race at my home track, Fair Grounds. Excellent card on offer with plenty of Stakes races, including three Grade 2 races.

This will be the 5th time that the LaDerby will be run at the 9.5f distance. Three of the previous four were won wire to wire in pretty much dominating fashion (Wells Bayou, Hot Rod Charlie, Kingsbarns). The other was won by Epicenter, who stayed close to the pace before taking over after about 6f.
Unless #3 Antiquarian(or another runner) is sent early to challenge #12Track Phantom, we may see another front end waltz. I get the feeling Pletcher will do just that with Antiquarian in order to aide the late rally of #4 Agate Road, who looks the better of his two runners.

Back to Track Phantom, who has been solid all meet long at FG, but I wonder if they catch up to him on Saturday. He basically runs the same race and the same figure every time. Last four Beyers are 89-90-89-88...he's not getting any better, which is what you look for from 3yr olds, esp ones who are being pointed to the Kentucky Derby. He's also been in steady training since his debut on Oct 1st.
A few others in the field are improving, and I project them to run a number that can beat the expected favorite.

#5 Catching Freedom - a half to Bishops Bay, has paired up 87 Beyers in his first two starts this year, which could set the stage for a nice move forward on Saturday. Prat takes the mount and he looks like a solid win candidate. I would be all in on this colt if it weren't for his antics in the stretch. He has trouble changing leads and was really playing around in his win two back at OP.

#10 Common Defense - to be fair, he got an absolute dream trip in the Rebel Stks last out at OP, but he was on the bridle all the way & looked loaded turning for home. Couldn't stay with arguably the top 3yr old right now in Timberlake, but put distance on the rest of the field, and galloped out strongly, heading the winner around the clubhouse turn. Drawn wide today but has plenty of room to find a spot before they hit the turn.

Maybe #2 Hall Of Fame can rebound off his Risen Star Stks run (without lasix), but I'm against him.
#4 Agate Road will be coming late with Irad in the saddle and can be used, but he will have a lot of work to do. Will be interesting to see where Irad places him early.
#7 Honor Marie must be given a chance. He did get a dream set up in November at CD and took full advantage of it. Surely needed his last when he lagged far behind early, but was going nicely late & galloped out well.

The rest of the field doesn't excite me much. I will add that #1 Triple Espresso will scratch and run at Turfway instead.

Great card, can't wait
Who ya got?

Going to be a fun this weekend at the track. Always sad when the meet ends though.

Really like what the folks in Nawlin's have been doing with this race the last several years Phantom.

1. Move to 9.5F
2. Moving back on the calendar

I think the results have been more than fruitful, sans Kingsbarns and crew last year.

A good test for trainers/connections to see if their horse can get 10F, and with 6 weeks rest I feel it will be more popular as time moves on.

It isn't like Epicenter in 2022 and Hot Rod Charlie in 2021 embarrassed themselves on the Triple Crown trail. ;)

The supporting stakes for LA Derby Day are always entertaining, too. In the days when I was a more active participant, this was one of my favorite days that wasn't Triple Crown or Breeders Cup. :ThmbUp:

Derby things start getting real now. Buckle Up!:jump:

Wonder why there's no GPS data available for Fair Grounds.

:7: Honor Marie to hit the board

The Louisiana Derby is a race I think is fantastic to watch and to wager on, with my top choice opening at 6 to 1 odds. Read my thoughts and how I plan to bet the race here https://www.keeneland.com/media/news...-march-23-2024

Interesting race to watch but unplayable unless you are betting Track Phantom to win. I personally don't think he is a world beater by any means but there is one huge advantage he has over the next four contenders, which are the :4::5::7::10:

He could possibly be the lone speed in pedestrian fractions if the :3: doesn't push him, which we don't know. If that plays out the four I just mentioned are dead closers and the only hope for one of them to win is to pull what Blazing Sevens did in the Preakness and run up close to the lead. Yes, he lost the race but at least he had a chance, unlike Mage.

Now here is the problem! None of them are going to risk being near the lead for fear of falling apart and missing the Derby. That's right, all four of them will be content to sit back and finish second and punch their ticket to Louisville, their only goal. That makes Track Phantom tough to beat. We all know Asmussen isn't going to slit his own throat and have Hall of Fame pushing his stable mate. It is hard to bet any of these deep closers to win. We all saw the Tampa Derby and it is possible we can have a repeat of that pace.

I bought past performances for this card. There’s enough races on the undercard to make reliable variants. So speed figures will be a good indicator of where the field fits in the derby picture.

If Sierre Leone doesn't show up in the Risen Star, we are likely getting 4/5 on :12: Track Phantom. Now? Likely 5/2 to even 7/2 for a horse that is a front runner that ran extremely well out of the 11 post last time out. He is a grinder and likely the one to catch and beat.

:5: Catching Freedom has been getting better his last two and shouldn't mind more distance. Prat gets the call this time and Sheets/Thoros players may well push this one towards favortism over the :12: even though he was beat by him last out.

:10: Common Defense out of the McPeek barn ran a big fig last time out. Gotten better his last two and the more distance should be well within his wheelhouse. Could be sitting on a monster.


As for the rest?

:7: Honor Marie was who I thought had a shot in the Risen Star. Didn't get a good trip and caught up a bit. Still didn't do much late. Gotta let him beat me this time.

:4: Agate Road is now second time dirt and likely training the best of his career thus far. Could get a real nice price on a Pletcher/Irad horse that should be coming late.

:9: Real Men Violin: Got a pure crap trip last out, but wasn't bet either. Think he runs much better today and shows what he has. Training well, and McPeek/Lanerie aren't newbies to longshot winners.

:11: Tuscan Gold: The price should be right for a $600K purchase out of the Chad Brown barn attracting Gaffalione in the irons. No idea what this one could be, and the romp his 2nd time out wasn't fast in the least. Maybe one to watch for later on down the road.

I'm going to go with :2: Hall of Fame and :4: Agate Road exacta box add :5: Catching Freedom and :10: Catching Freedom for a tri and super box.

Agate Road has been working lights out coming into the race

$20 ex box :2::4:
$1 tri box :2::4::5::10:
$1 super box :2::4::5::10:

It turns out that one of the deep closers, Common Defense went up to put pressure on Track Phantom and that did both of them in. I think if Track Phantom could have gotten the six furlongs three lengths slower he might have held on. I question running him in the Derby but Asmussen has never won it and he probably will put him in but he seems like an easy toss if there is other early speed.

The entries were taken for the Florida Derby, 11 horse field with Fierceness drawing the 10 hole as the 8-5 ML favorite. I didn't like this race but I love the Florida Derby.