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-   -   Longshot for Wednesday (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=144487)

Ray2000 04-25-2018 06:30 AM

Longshot for Wednesday
 
Buffalo Race 2 . . .#7 Er Monica-8/1 . . .Watch List pick from Apr 17

Key box Exacta with 5,8


pandy 04-25-2018 09:20 AM

You have guts if you can bet a horse from post 7 at Buffalo. The win percentage is 5.6, pretty much an industry standard now. But Buffalo has a terrible inside bias, post 1 wins at 27%, which should be unaccepetable. If I was the GM or director of racing at Buffalo, I would not allow that type of bias, I would figure out how to change it.

EdZone 04-25-2018 09:48 AM


sharkey11 04-25-2018 10:01 AM

buf has one of the better sites of the smaller tracks and a great vidieo also. but the % of winning favs is too high for me .by the way arent the worst horses supposed to be placed to the inside if so then rays horse should have a better chance than its post suggests happy handicapping :headbanger:

pandy 04-25-2018 12:22 PM

46% winning favorites, terrible...Monticello is 50%!...Northfield is 47%.

It's ashame how they killed half mile track racing.

sharkey11 04-25-2018 02:23 PM

i think the tracks mgment is part to blame they would rather see the odds on favs. meaning more winners and more churn for them but the bottom line it comes from the owners of said tracks an most of them are casino minded only !

Ray2000 04-25-2018 03:04 PM

I wish tracks would post ROI data for Drivers / Trainers / and Post Positions
Statsmaster at Trackmaster has ROIs for DR/TR but not post.

Here's what I have for Buffalo last year, not official.
Code:

Post                  BR        PP1          PP2          PP3          PP4          PP5          PP6          PP7          PP8
Starts                BR        800        800        800        800        780        767        733        469

% Wins                BR        24%        16%        16%        18%        15%        8%        4%        3%

Dev from Exp*        BR        81%        22%        22%        31%        12%        -37%        -68%        -74%
ROI                BR        0.75        0.80        0.72        1.03        0.77        0.67        0.52        0.43


*This is the Trackmaster number seen in the program beneath the Post number.
It is the deviation from what a "non post biased" track should be,
meaning in 8 horse fields, all posts should win 1/8th of the time.

The BR / BTVA numbers for the rail are the worst in the industry.
BR        81%
BTVA        97%
FHLD        62%
FLMD        17%
HAR        50%
LON        60%
MR        34%
NFLD        42%
STGA        57%
YR        47%


Ray2000 04-25-2018 05:09 PM

Er Monica Scratched, something strange about this horse, back on watch list.

Instead go with Race 10

#1 Painter'S Edge-4/1 on top of 3,6,7,2,4 in the dime super

Good Luck All

sharkey11 04-25-2018 06:56 PM

thanks ray for the post chart using that i grabed a 30-1 shot there seeing that the roi on the 4 was in the plus side thanks sir love those charts gl capping :headbanger:

Ray2000 04-25-2018 08:09 PM

Glad you got it, sharkey!:headbanger:

10 race super was $1.00 . . 8-5-4-2 $9,569.00, and somebody had it.:eek:

coachv30 04-25-2018 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pandy (Post 2307501)
46% winning favorites, terrible...Monticello is 50%!...Northfield is 47%.

It's ashame how they killed half mile track racing.

At NFLD.....Wrenn and Merriman probably drive at least 80% of those winning favorites too. Is there an imbalance of driver talent there? Are those two that much better than the rest? When they drive elsewhere, they don't stand out.

pandy 04-25-2018 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by coachv30 (Post 2307699)
At NFLD.....Wrenn and Merriman probably drive at least 80% of those winning favorites too. Is there an imbalance of driver talent there? Are those two that much better than the rest? When they drive elsewhere, they don't stand out.

They're talented. Merriman does very well at the Meadows and now Wrenn is starting to make inroads at the Meadows. I think he won five races there one day last week. I'm a big fan of Wrenn, he has a lot of ability.


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