WORTHY OF A THREAD OF ITS OWN. FORMULA'S 500 EXACTA RACE STUDY
 

THERE ARE TWO SEGMENTS WITH SIGNIFICANT PROFITS.
THE QUESTION IS, WILL THESE PROFITABLE SEGMENTS REVERT TO THE MEAN IN THE NEXT 500 RACES. I WILL WORK ON THAT.

Have you placed a bet yet?

Nope. At this point betting is a distraction. I'm onto bigger things, like the next 500 race!!:)

There is one additional element which is not charted. It's the one that has held my interest. It's a "play", " no play" designation. I'll chart it shortly along with yesterday's results. I have a touch of the gout today, slowing me down a bit. However I am looking at the belmont 4th race. 2nd choice is the 6. Just need the bet size calculation.

YESTERDAY'S RESULTS FOR ALL SEGMENTS
$1 EXACTA RETURN $1.04

2-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL SEGMENTS. 42 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN $0.80

3-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL SEGMENTS. 61 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN remains at $0.80

4-DAY RESULTS FOR ALL SEGMENTS. 86 RACES
$1 EXACTA RETURN INCREASED TO $0.90

I BROKE OUT THE SEGMENTS 1.1 AND 3 THAT COMBINED FOR A PROFIT OF $1.01 ON TH EDOLLAR.

I STILL NEED TO PRESENT THE YEA AND NAY PLAYS

at best a one-penny return is worthy of a thread of its own? :lol::lol:

I need to be thankful to the "Late Money Bettors" for my biggest win of the day.
Pen race 2 which was rated as my segment 3 class.
the significant late money went this way:
#7, probability increased by 141%
#9, probability increased by 181 %
#10, probability increased by 106%

they all lost
my winner, #5 probability decreased by 18%

here is an interesting point regarding the segments 1.1 and 3.

in the 500 out of sample races the betting choice returned $0.97 exacta dollars in over 150 races.
in the current out of sample races they returned $1.08.

I will follow up with this.