Is This The Year: Forever Young
 

Japan has been cranking hard on the international scene and whipping some of our very best outside of the States. They have 'invaded' the Breeder's Cup more than a few times.

The Kentucky Derby has been a serious prize for the Japan contingent. I fully believe it is simply a matter of time. Is it this year?

Forever Young looks to have all the merits of breeding that lead to success in the Kentucky Derby.

Is it the time now? Is it this year?

He seems to be catching some eyes in his works in Louisville, and very much seems to look the part.

He'll be the only undefeated colt in the field when they go to the gate come the first weekend in May.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses...forever-young/

Well one of these years will be the year but will it happen before we are all dead? I have tossed the UAE horses out of all bets from the very first one and I am doing so once again. None have run in the top five so no reason to think it will occur this time.

it would be fun to see but.... wouldn't bet on it. good shot at hitting the board though

He's an interesting horse.

On the plus side he's got the 5 for 5 record, he's got the breeding - especially on the female side that's like Sierra Leone's, he has the momentum of the Japanese horses pointing to and impacting races on the International Stage over the last decade or so, he's got the UAE Derby scenic trip and long distance travel success to consider, and the Derby field doesn't appear to have Secretariat in the mix.

On the minus side, he's made another long trip to Kentucky in the last few weeks, he ran in minor races last year, the UAE runners have an awful record in the Derby so that race is still not a preferred path to the roses, and while he took the scenic route in his last race - he didn't get roughed up or get kickback, so how much adversity he can weather is still unknown. There's also enough hype about him that his price won't provide much value, even with a bad post.

But, to zico's point, going with the trend/streak of tossing the UAE runners until they beat you means you can be "right" many times, and only wrong once.

My take at this moment is that it's a changing world, and Bluegrass Country does not have the huge edge in racing it enjoyed 40 years ago. With so few starts and breeding losing its impact value, the Derby is now a different puzzle to solve. Best guess is that Forever Young has about a 30% chance to hit the board and a 10% chance to win. I'll be using him.

I wonder if there's any net bias for or against Japanese Derby entrants. Do bettors shy away from a foreign path to the Derby? Or do they generously include a lesser-known novelty? Probably nets out evenly.

Japanese runners won the UAE Derby impressively this year and last. Superior stamina pedigrees.

Derma Sotagake went off as third Derby favorite last year. He ran 6th, but went on to place in the Breeders Cup Classic.

I stuck with Derma Sotagake as my co-pick last year, even though his value eroded after I made my decision. I may fade Forever Young at a short price, but I'm inclined to use him at this preliminary stage.

i'm guessing he'll be around 10/1. 4th or 5th betting choice

Derma Sotogake was one of the horses I was backing last year and he finished 6th after running the UAE Derby in 1:55.81

Forever Young runs the UAE Derby over two seconds slower at 1:57.89

Did he beat any good horses?

He’s a toss for me unless I hear something convincing

Not sure of the quality of the field, but Forever Young and the runner up in the UAE Derby were pulling away from the rest late. In theory this indicates they're superior horses in a superior race.

I don't pay as much attention to times as I do other factors, especially with foreign based horses and younger horses with fewer starts. Two seconds "slower" for races a year apart equates to 10 or 12 lengths in American racing - all other things being EQUAL. Which is unlikely.

However, I'll agree that with the Derby you have to take a stand on some horses to keep wager costs under control, and tossing a horse based on a "sub-par" prep is something we'll all have to do. Tossing a Derby horse that's undefeated OTH.....

... trained by a trainer who's proven he can ship to win big races on American soil (and Australian soil, and Hong Kong soil, and Saudi soil, and Dubai soil ...)

Forever Young had a troubled start in the Saudi Derby. He overcame that adversity, perhaps of his own making.

He took the Abdulaziz turn five wide, spotted rivals three lengths at the top of the stretch, and finished in the middle of the track. Any closer than a mile, Book 'em Dano would have beat him to the wire.

He traveled wide in Meydan as well. That kept him out of trouble, at the expense of ground.

Can he prevail that way in the Derby? Will he pull together a tighter trip and improve?

His workout yesterday was uninspiring. Room for improvement, or spotting rivals too much trouble?

Yep Mike Welsh who does the Clocker Report said he did not like the workout, said he was switching leads and not full of energy

i would have played this horse but i don't like the race he came out of.. i am going to go with HONOR MARIE

wait for it.....
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https://media.tenor.com/-ufB5LdBDFIA...cals-money.gif

Word on the street is Rod Stewart is all over him.

I like 'ol Rod as much as the next guy, but it'll be a relief when this horse goes back home and I don't have the song ringing in my head every time I open the PPs.