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formula_2002

05-16-2018 07:01 PM

Code:

"Mountaineer

Race 

1



Post 

7:00



MTP 

2



$2 Exacta Pool

$3,561"                 

pgno        yellow BET SIZE        blue BET SIZE

1        ----        $11

2        $100        ----

3        ----        $57

4        ----        $21

5        ----        $11

6        ----        ----

7        ----        ----

8        ----        ----

9        ----        ----

10        ----        ----

11        ----        ----

12        ----        ----

13        ----        ----

14        ----        ----

15        ----        ----

16        ----        ----

        100.00        100.00





pgno        box BET SIZE        BET SIZE

1        $35         

2        ----         

3        ----         

4        $65         

5        ----         

6        ----         

7        ----         

8        ----         

9        ----         

10        ----         

11        ----         

12        ----         

13        ----         

14        ----         

15        ----         

16        ----         

        100.00

formula_2002

05-17-2018 12:38 AM

CALCULATING THE FAIR EXACTA PAYOUT.
THE PROBABILITY OF A HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/ THE RACES TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE .

THE TOTAL BOOK PERCENTAGE FOR A TRACK WITH A 15% TAKE OUT SUMS TO ABOUT 1.18

THE PROBABILITY OF ANY HORSE WINNING IS (1/(ODDS+1))/1.18

TAG THE WIN HORSES WIN PROBABILITY WITH "A"

TAG THE PLACE HORSE WIN PROBABILITY WITH "B"

EXACTA PROBABILITY FOR A/B IS:

A X (B/(1-A))

EXAMPLE: A HORSE ODDS =2-1, B HORSE ODDS = 3-1, TRACK TAKE OUT IS 15%

A HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(2+1))/1.18 = .282

B HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(3+1)/1.18 = .212

PROBABILITY FOR THE A/B COMBINATION IS,

.282/(.212/(1-.282)) = .083

THAT EQUATES TO A $1 RETURN OF (1/.083)= 12.04

THE FAIR $1 PAYOUT IS $12.04

formula_2002

05-18-2018 11:39 AM

Code:

"UK York

Race 

5



Post 

11:35



MTP 

0



$1 Exacta Pool

$10,209"        

pgno        bet size

1        95

2        67

3        83

4        66

5        44

6        146

7        53

8        102

9        0

10        87

11        87

12        73

13        97

14        0

15        0

16        0

        1000.00

formula_2002

05-18-2018 11:49 AM

tote board indicates an 11/6 $1exacta payout of $351. that would mean a $1 normalized exacta return of $56.00 compared to a $1 win bet return of only $9. we will see if that holds up or if someone made an adjustment to the betting

formula_2002

05-18-2018 11:54 AM

1 Attachment(s)

yea :jump::jump:

formula_2002

05-20-2018 07:54 PM

Code:

"Santa Anita Park

Race 

9



Post 

7:54



MTP 

2



$1 Exacta Pool

$168,829"        

pgno        11

1        0

2        0

3        302

4        0

5        0

6        0

7        0

8        0

9        298

10        0

11        400

12        0

13        0

14        0

15        0

16        0

        1000.00

formula_2002

05-20-2018 08:40 PM

Code:

"Los Alamitos QH

Race 

1



Post 

8:40



MTP 

2



$1 Exacta Pool

$7,540"        

pgno        1

1        358

2        0

3        0

4        313

5        0

6        0

7        330

8        0

9        0

10        0

11        0

12        0

13        0

14        0

15        0

16        0

        1000.00

formula_2002

05-24-2018 07:45 PM

Code:



        Code:


        
"Evangeline Downs

Race 

3



Post 

7:45



MTP 

2



$1 Exacta Pool

$2,845"        

pgno        bet size

1        177

2        0

3        66

4        218

5        118

6        117

7        305

8        0

9        0

10        0

11        0

12        0

13        0

14        0

15        0

16        0

        1000.00

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