Superfecta Filler(s)
 

One of the best things about the Kentucky Derby is wagering the Superfecta.

Life-changing payouts have been had. $800K or so can be in the cards if you play them right.

With that said who is your bottom fillers to create that 'lifer'?

:18: Tawny Port
:14: Barber Road

Those are my bottom fillers.

Rich Strike. The name fits.

I still like :17: as a legit selection, and qualifies as a filler at 80/1 (!). Another legitimate use is :13: at 40/1.

:18: is a huge price that's not a hard toss. Not sure I can fit him in.

:11:,:19:,:4: worth a look.

Rich Strike, :14: and especially :2: are just tosses for me, even for a hail Mary super.

That gets you to the upper half of the win pool. I need to study the exacta pool a little more—there's some significant discrepancies with the win pool. Not sure how much that matters in the bottom of a super. But I wonder if that 50/1 17th choice will pay proportionally as well in the exotics.

I think :4: is a sneaky top choice for this.

He's paying much better underneath the top choices than :9: in the exacta pool, even though they're similar values in the win pool. He's paying about the same as :11:, which is a substantially more generous price in the win pool.

I know he's "only" 13th choice at 33/1 in the win pool, but suspect he's value underneath. I bet folks are betting him only on top on the off chance he wires the field. But he's come in second twice, and fourth once—within three lengths. He's 14th choice in the place and show pools.

Dosage is 2.11. DRF gave him the best rating for the distance in the field, 333. BRIS rating and sire/dam sire AWD are meh, though.

Most of the other figs and ratings are "N/A," which is probably more good than bad.

Got it down to $77.

:3:,:6:,:1: / :6:,:1:,:16: / :10:,:1:,:16:,:7:,:17: / :4:,:13:,:17:,:18:

Tiz the Bomb has points, money, local connections, etc. And is about 25-1 now. May not make for a life-changing score, but would surely help one finish in the black.

And then, if you hook him up with the other Turfway connections in exactas, like I just did, there might not be too many of those out there. :D



:cool:

For me it is the :11::13::19: I don't see any other horse over 20-1 who appeals to me whatsoever.

Modified my wager

:1:,:3:,:6:, / :1:,:3:,:6:,:16: / :1:,:7:,:16:,:17: / :4:,:7:,:13:,:17:,:18:

I was right. He did fill in one of the superfecta spots. :faint:

:headbanger:

This is the best post of the year so far.