The Woodward via Calibration Hcp.
 

Calibration Handicapping the Woodward -Race 11-Saratoga-9/1/18 - 1-⅛ Mile-Purse $750K

I’ll have to re-read the pdf, but don’t recall it saying much about Grade 1’s.

So scanning thru the entries for Red Scan’s, I count 7! I’ll lay them out and try to separate using the rules.
---------------------------T/M(turn move)------E2---------Pace-------LP-----------FF (⅕’s)- - - Str/M
:1: Yoshida (5/1 ML)- -- 6 L’s - - - - - - - -114 - - - - 111.4- - - - 77 - - - - -23.1(all races on Turf)

:2: Imperative (30/1) - - - 1 L - - - - -- - - - 95 - - - - -112.0 - - - -95 - - - - -23.3

:5: Hence (20/1) - - - - -- -3 L’s - - - - - - - -89 - - - - -112.4 - - - -96 - - - - 24.1 - - -- - -- -5.5 L’s

:7: Kurilov (10/1) - - - - - -1 L - - - - - - - - 95 - - - - - 112.0 - - - -94 - - - -23.4

:8: Discreet Lover(8/1)- - -2.5 L’s - - - - - -96 - - - - - 112.2 - - - -94 - - - -24.1
(t.m finished 8.5 l’s from lead, but 3rd-4L’s at finish)

:10: Seeking The Soul - -2.5 L;s - - - - - 89 - - - - - 111.2 - - - -108 - - --23.4
(9/2 ML)-49 days-7 mos. Prior

:13: Zanotti (20/1) - - - - - -1.25 L - - - - - -101 - - - - -111.3 - - - - 104 - - - 23.2

Using Calib. Hcp rules, we separate using the last fraction, or in my modification use Bris’ LP. The :10: Seeking the Soul has the highest at 108, but that was 2nd at 49 days ago @ ½ for 100K in Indiana. His actual raw final fraction is tied for 4th best. Since his previous race was 7 months ago, I’m eliminating him from a win.

The :13: Zanotti, has the highest LP at 104 in a Grade 3 at Mth, where he fin. 2nd after a bobble at the break and a bump. While Calibr. Hcp doesn’t consider early pace, E2, Zanotti also has the highest LRace at 101. I might add that Z’s actual final fract. is also 1st on dirt at 23.2. I’ve read some of the comments on PA about outside posts being tough to get the lead at Sar. Using the rules as I understand them, he would be the pick.

:1: Yoshida is interesting to me, since he’s never raced on dirt, but had a huge turn move last race on Turf, at 6 L’s, and set a new pace top. NPT’s are what Blinker’s Off advocates. Not sure what it means changing from Turf to Dirt for his first try.
:2: :5: :7: :8: all have their LP’s bunched up at 94-96. The :5: is a dual qualifier with both a T/M & S/M with the next highest LP at 96.


Looking at the pp’s, to me it looks like :4: Tapwrit should be able get the lead if he wants it.
:11: Leofric has a higher LP at 105 than our Calibr. Hcp candidate. The races I’ve posted so far, have only had one or two qualifiers, this one a Grade 1 is not a great place to try it in my limited experience.

I'm going with the outside..

:9::12::10::11::8:

Good luck!!

:1: Yoshida wins and pays $14.40. He had the biggest turn move at 6 Length's albeit on the turf. Have to thank Gus Thaskalos again for suggesting Blinkers Off several months back. I bought a copy back then and still don't understand all the figs and variations the author uses. Yoshida had set a New Pace Top, and his first time on dirt was worth $400,000.