2016-2017 NBA thread
 

I was in Reno last weekend and made these season win total wagers: Minnesota over 41, New York under 40.

These are both Bulls second derivative plays. Tibs is a great coach, and this young team needs a taskmaster to keep them focused on the defensive end. As for the Knicks, I believe its addition for subtraction for the Bulls. Rose is a shell of the 2010 Rose, and Noah has just had too many injuries. I laugh when I see the public hammering the over. The public can't get these right. They hammered the Diamondbacks over this year and got slaughtered. They hammered the Padres in 2015 and also got slaughtered. They like to bet teams that make free agent moves, which often don't work, and very rarely work in their first year.

I also look for the Spurs to be more of an uptempo team with Duncan retiring and Gasol coming aboard. The linemakers will catch up taking SA/GS Over 213 tonight.

Go Spurs
 

Generally agree with this take on these teams, but don't think Spurs will be any quicker with Gasol on the floor. I was pleasantly surprised by tonight's blow-out. Dubs looked sluggish and the much improved J. Simmons was awesome -- if he's added the three to his game, the Spurs could be tougher than anyone (including me) thought. Think Kawhi will give Curry a serious run for the MVP -- in beast mode all night. OTOH Gasol looked 100 years old -- like Duncan, he just can't run with GSW -- still working his way into the offense.

Understood that Dubs are still learning to play together, but they look like they seriously miss Bogut's D, passing and (illegal?) screens. Iguodala was a shadow of himself -- wondering if he's completely recovered from his Finals injury. If Pachulia doesn't get it together by Christmas, think Kerr will be shopping for another big man.

Re T'Wolves -- a good young team and certainly much better than Knicks, but wouldn't be surprised to see tensions develop between he and either/both KAT and/or Wiggins.

BTW, have had some opportunities to see Embiid in pre-season action -- may sound like hype but looks like easy HOFer -- if he stays healthy, good chance for 20/12 this year -- soon will be better than KAT, maybe => AD.

Embiid
 

To follow up -- Embiid begins his NBA career tonight vs. OKC. OKC will crush Sixers, but will be interesting to see how Embiid fares vs. Adams -- did pretty well in pre-season. Believe he's still on limited minutes. Unheralded Lauvergne has looked good for OKC in pre-season.

The Spurs tempo isn't so much about Gasol, but the fact the offense will be less half court without Duncan. And Duncan's defensive ability will be missed.

Spurs/Kings for Thursday was at 206. When these two teams face off in 3 weeks back in Sacramento, I think we see a total of 212-213.

Gasol
 

Aside from Duncan, the Spurs also parted with D. West and Diaw, also not speed-demons, at this point, so they should be a bit quicker. But most of the speed is still on the bench. Of the starters, only Kawhi and Green really get out on the break -- LMA is okay, but Gasol and TP can no longer run with the GSW/Clips/OKC faction. That said, Gasol is still a valuable talent -- he can score, rebound, and despite weak D overall, can block shots. As you say, with the absence of Duncan's D, the team will show a decline in that area, but think Gasol's scoring will even things out, giving them the same ca. 10-pt. differential overall.

Agree re Spurs/Kings -- BTW, O/U I see is now 203, so even more worth grabbing.

And re the season O/U board in Reno you mention, both those numbers are huge bargains -- Westgate is the same on Minn., but has Knicks at 38, so anyone in the Reno are should jump on this.

Nowadays, most of the books in Reno are affiliated with William Hill. I think the only non WH books may be the Peppermill and Atlantis, although Horses 4 Courses may be the one to ask on that.

I think that total drop on Spurs/Kings is more about the Kings and some comments that were mentioned about maybe playing a little slower. But, the Kings, on no rest and off a win, are also possible to take the night off on the defensive end.

first play of the year
 

Clippers always get over bet.
Taking Portland at home with the 2.5 points.
Only 33% on the Blazers.

Warriors are playing tonight after coming off a loss to San Antonio I look for them to get back on track.

The Warriors look lost without Durant. Hard to believe they won 73 games last year without him. Curry, Thompson and Green all in shooting slumps.

They did lose quite a bit from their roster to get Durant. It isn't like it is the same team as last year when Durant doesn't play.

There were some changes but the core is still intact. Even the two main guys off the bench, Iguadala and Livingston, are still there. Right now, its three guys in a shooting slump at the same time.

Harrison Barnes was a starter and is gone, as is the starting center, Bogut, and the backup center. They gutted themselves on defense. Durant was filling a lot of the role and doing it well. I wish he played half that much defense in OKC.

Now I know the offense is struggling, but particularly in basketball it is very tough to separate the two. Less stops equals less rebounds equals more set defenses, not transition. How many 3s did we see last year on the break from Curry and Klay?

Westbrook fan or not, this is a really good article.

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/sto...sell-westbrook

Spurs future bet
 

Haven't been paying much attention to the NBA (except Embiid before his injury)since it looked like a pretty cut-and-dried post-season. However, it seems to me that the Durant injury and absence may have altered the Finals situation enough to create some betting value. GSW no longer looks like a mortal lock to face Cavs for the title, and I now give the Spurs a much better shot to win it all. Of course, Durant could come back in 100% shape, as I hope he does, but assuming he is able to return by the playoffs (and apparently there is no guarantee) if his game is off to a degree, it could cost Dubs the championship. If he doesn't return, I think they have no shot vs. Spurs -- they just depend too much on his game at this point.

Spurs were 8/1 a couple of days ago, now 6/1. Think betting Spurs here is not a bad play.

Re MVP -- looks like Harden, with all due respect to the great triple-double year of Westbrook. Don't remember any player on team not at least at close to the CF level winning it. Interesting factoid: in 13 out of the last 17 years, the player with the top WS/48 has taken the MVP. Right now that player is Kawhi Leonard, who has been given more shots in the last month or so and is averaging ca. 30 ppg during that time. Don't think his scoring average will be high enough by the end of the year to be competitive though.

That was very well written, good piece.

The MVP is in town tonight, something to fall back on in case my Buds sh*t the bed again.