I have confirmation from the source that I am correct. Two half pound burgers will be fine. I'm not really a steak fan.

A small price to pay in order to get to meet you in person. :ThmbUp:

And...who knows? I might be able to get even with you on the tennis court. :jump:

I heard CJ likes to bowl. as well...:cool:

Naw...that's a no-win situation for him. In bowling...I'm a NATURAL! :)

I guess it's on me that people seem to frequently miss my point. In my opinion that horse ran worse than all of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th finishers, and only a particularly inept ride on the #4 horse, sorry I've forgotten his name, allowed the winner to win...or even possibly hit the tri.

If I wasn't busy, and laboring to type on an iPad, I would go into more detail ( assuming people care ).

Sorry you lost the bet but if it's any consolation, based on what Andy said the most likely interpretation was that the horse was the 4th best before the race.

As far as the alleged class factor. I agree with cj. When a horses' speed and pace figures, along with other strong pluses, indicate it belongs, one should not overestimate usual class distinctions. The mistake I made in this race were due to my missing other horses' better figures - nothing to do with class.

How high did Cartwheelin Lulu rate PRE-RACE...in your opinion?

Whenever I hear someone state that something horserace-related has "nothing to do with class"...I always find myself on the opposite side of the argument. And this is after a lifetime of using speed and pace figures.

Fringe player at best. I would never use her in my play, for whatever that is worth, and highly doubt she would hit the board if they ran the race again, especially on a fair/even track.

She would have been much longer odds on a fair track, but by that point I think most people realized speed was king.

It's not like she had to clear...and certainly didn't figure to do it going that slowly! It's the rail, not speed, that had been strong.

I think the younger guys are intimidated by Johnny, which is ridiculous, and I also think Kendrick being out for a few months, unfortunately, might slow paces down even more. Such a great opportunity for some...at least in theory.

I haven't heard anyone in this thread say that "horse racing has nothing to do with class'", nor have I myself ever made such a statement, so there is no argument here to be on an opposite side of in that statement. I would never say that class should be totally eliminated from one's handicapping as if it had nothing to do with racing. What I did point out is that under certain circumstances, the collective evidence of other major factors can overcome a traditional notion of class.

What I believe cj was saying that in certain cases, such as statebred racing, the class difference between Finger Lakes and Belmont is not as great as many people with traditional mind sets believe and Finger Lakes horses should be evaluated on all factors when they come to Belmo and not just eliminated on the basis of class.

I'll tell you what...let's you and I work on a little homework assignment. You can gather some more examples of horses of various class levels who have successfully made the jump from Finger Lakes to the Aqueduct/Saratoga/ Belmont circuit...and I'll come up with examples of seemingly off-form horses who have "come to life" when they make the transition from the major NY circuit, to Finger Lakes. And then we can put this "track-class" question to bed for good.

Let me ask you something, bobphilo:

You started this thread by congratulating Cj for his superior figure-making...because Cartwheelin Lulu had the top TFUS speed figure, and was tied for the top pace in the Gimma Stakes. And now you've come back to tell us that you had made a mistake...and that there were other horses in that race that had even BIGGER ratings than Cartwheelin Lulu. Seeing that you seem to be a little careless in your handicapping endeavors...how confident are you in the accuracy of your Finger Lakes/Belmont "track-class comparison"?

In my experience, class is difficult to measure with lightly raced horses like these because you don't always know what a horse has in the tank until it's tested against better horses. The cheap ones wilt and don't duplicate their prior figures when challenged by better and the good ones up their game a bit and run a little faster. Figuring out which category a horse fits into beforehand is as much about probability (trainer, breeder, owner, pedigree, price paid, visual impression) as it is about actual knowledge of the horse (unless you get to see it work in company regularly).

But really, the primary use of class is to try to avoid the complicating and subjective errors innate in figure making.

The class handicapper is looking at who beat who with what trip. He doesn't have to worry about the impact of track speed changes, gusts of wind, the run up, the rail setting, malfunctioning timers, or the subjective interpretation of a figure maker. It's all on him to look at the quality of the field, how the race developed, and subjectively determine how well each horse ran. For those advantages, you occasionally have to deal with races and horses whose quality is not obvious to you. In those situations, it's probably better to look at the times to get you into the ballpark. IMO, there's no single right answer. Each situation calls for different tools. If I didn't think about this stuff so much, I'd still have hair. Tough game.

If you play a lot of statebred races at AQU, BEL, and SAR it's probably a good idea to keep profiles on horses coming from Finger Lakes so you learn the pecking order at both tracks and where they fit relative to each other.

OK, So after I'v gathered my horses who have made a successful transition from Finger Lakes to Bel, Sar, Aqu. and you've made your collection of horses improving when they go from major NY tracks to Finger Lakes. So what have we proven?

As for the error I made in missing a few speed figures in one race. Which I readily admitted to. Are you casting aspersions on my handicapping because of an error in one race and saying I am so incompetent as to not know the difference in class between a major and minor track? I see you must be perfect in all your numerical calculations. One little numerical error in speed and suddenly I'm an incompetent when it comes to identifying class. I find that insulting and uncalled for.
Of course, in general the major NY tracks are at a higher class level. Again, aside from insulting me, what's your point.
Are you so sensitive about me not giving the proper respect to your precious class factor that you have to resort to insults and comparisons that make no sense?