Belmont Late Pick 4 Thread
 

A thread to post Belmont Late Pick 4 selections...next race date is Thursday June 8...
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...-BEL-20170608D

Preliminary Selections
 

r6 :7::10:
r7 :5::7::8:

r6 :7::10:
r7 :5::7::8:
r8 :1::5::7::8::9:
r9 :1::5::6::11:

You going to actually bet the Pick 4 on Thursday? Or is this more "creativity"?

What difference does it make...the real question is ARE YOU GOING TO BET IT...?
And CAN YOU ADD TO THE CREATIVITY..?
No offense intended...who do you like..?

I see these handicappers getting together on video.drf.com and conversing with each other with the goal of putting Pick 4 tickets together and I think to myself "WE COULD DO THAT HERE AT PA, the premier horse racing forum...But horse players are notorious for being independent and secretive with their picks, afraid that their profit will be reduced by sharing (there is truth to this) but it is more likely that their ticket will fail so what is the big deal in sharing and working together..?

I see nothing wrong with this comment. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:
GL w/pick4

Good answer. That's kinda what I thought.

I figure if we all spend more time putting quality tickets together, we can ALL make more money, instead of working against each other and nit-picking each other's faults...I think there was a part of the movie A BEAUTIFUL MIND that highlighted this concept...REGARDING COMPETITIVE BEHAVIOR and the odds of improved outcomes by working together.....how about it?

The Pick 4 is the best bet in racing...let's go after them together...

I only looked at the 9th race, and I see that you have #6 Charge Latouche included in your picks.

On Thursday, Charge Latouche will have 713 days off since his last race.
The only time that I ever bet on a horse with that much time off was in 1998.
The horse won.
His name was Da Hoss and he was trained by Michael W. Dickinson.
Michael W. Dickinson just happens to be the trainer of #6 Charge Latouche.

P4s are not my type of bet.
I like my money so I only handicap and bet 7, 8 & 9 horse fields on the dirt,
(no 1st timers or coupled entries). I bet lightly & I have fun.

#7 Summer Mischief's only race was a throw out.
I think that he will do better, running on the turf for Christopher Clement.

Good Luck

Da Hoss had a prep race though before the 1998 BC Mile at Colonial Downs. However if there is anyone who could do it....it's Dickinson.

I don't buy any of this for a second and can guarantee there will be an ulterior motive behind it.

He sure did. He won at Colonial Downs on Oct. 11th 1998, the Breeders Cup was on Oct. 26th. Betting on Da Hoss was better than finding money.:)

My selections are preliminary in nature, DaHoss, and are meant as a starting place for constructing an affordable .50 cent Pick 4 ticket....I welcome your input but if you think this is "ulterior" you may as well drop out now...are you interested at all in working together....?

Not at all. Why would I? I do very good on my own. Why would I need to work with someone who spends countless hours posting smilies?

But I look forward to tracking your picks. Should be fun!

I guess I don't have to worry about you wasting money betting my bad selections, huh....? Why don't you post a horse or two for evaluation into the mix....your selections just might be keys to someone else's benefit....?

Other horses to look at for Thursday's ticket
r6:1::3:
r7 :11::3:
r8 :4::2:
r9 :3::8:

Horses to look at

Race 6 #11
Race 7 #7, #12
Race 8 #8
Race 9 #4

This thread is going to be a little trickier than I thought...There are many factors that go into Pick 4 ticket construction...Many players play multiple tickets using a variety of SINGLES and SPREADS....

So I need some coaching on how to proceed...One idea I thought was to start with trying to identify which races were SINGLE races and which were SPREAD or CHAOS races...

I also wanted to keep the ticket on the smallish side for the .50 cent wager...so there are some options to consider...

I also wondered about how we could work together and agree on combinations...that maybe that was too difficult in a forum such as this...

But I do want to move forward with this somehow....

This is what we have so far:

r6 :7::10:
r7 :5::7::8:
r8 :1::5::7::8::9:
r9 :1::5::6::11:

Other horses to look at for Thursday's ticket
r6:1::3:
r7 :11::3:
r8 :4::2:
r9 :3::8:

Horses to look at

Race 6 #11
Race 7 #7, #12
Race 8 #8
Race 9 #4

r6 K1:7:
r7 K1:5:
r8 K1:5:
r9 k1:11:

Key1 Key2 / Possible Selections

r6 K1:11: K2:10: with :7::1::3::4::9::14:
r7 K1:5: K2:8: with :11::12::13:
r8 K1:5: K2:9: with :8::4::7:
r9 k1:11: K2:16: with :5::4::8::7:

Under $100.00..

Ticket 1: 1,7,10,11 / 5,8 / 2,4,5,7,8,9 / 1,4,8 $72.00

Ticket 2: 1,7,10,11 / 3,5,8,11 / 4,5,9 / 5 $24.00

Call an audible:

Ticket 2: 1,7,10,11 / 3,5,8,11 / 3,4,6 / 5

My LATE Belmont Pick-4

Good luck

-NCG


https://image.ibb.co/mzsLJF/late_pick_4_Belmont.png

Going to use my 1st thought

And by the way, Belmont has put together a good Pick 4. Lot of choices, it should be interesting.

$91.50
threw this together for fun

http://oi68.tinypic.com/15i53ig.jpg

Like to see another ticket. just looking at the similarity and the differences. See that in the second leg we both like the 5 and 8, and the use of the 4 in the third leg.

Was lucky to get a value in leg 1.

If the 11 wins this 7th, it will be a nice ticket.

Not super confident, I haven't really capped the 8th and 9th.


For race 7, my feeling was that the :5: will win his duel with the 8. A little surprised to see the 8 open up heavily favored.

And now the 9 opens at 1-5 with 80,000 bet to win.

Her place price is still higher than her win price. Usually when I see that, the win ends up paying better by post time.

EDIT: or the next 'flash' of the tote after I post

down goes the favorite
 

only alive to the 3 'A' horses , but happy to be alive.

Pick 4 Willpays $0.50
:1: $543.25
:8: $337.00
:11: $337.00

not using the heavy chalk 8, in race 7, as an 'A', was an 'unforced error'.

Exactly what you try not to do in learning and playing this game.

It's like playing a casual game of tennis. You don't try to paint the line or hit the ball 100mph. Don't hit it into the net or way out of bounds, let the other guy do that.

difference between being alive to the :5:, or not.

Not a HUGE deal, but maybe 10% worse chance of cashing. This was also a ticket where I played everything 1 x 50cents, so a weighted ticket would have magnified the error, additionally.

Thurs June 08 '17 Results

$2 Pick 4= $9,216
r6 :14:
r7 :8:, :7::12::13:
r8 :5:
r9 :10:

Verify all numbers and tickets...!

Wow, great payout for those fortunate enough to have it...let's keep trying everyone...remember, let's work together on this....

Robert, I love how you structure the bets A B C D....helps me a lot...
Greg, thanks for your contribution...

....hoping a few of our Aces here can help make this thread a winner and a favorite...

Next Pick 4 set for Friday, tomorrow, June 09....thanks again.

Review of Thursdays Selections, (after the race)
Key1 Key2 / Possible Selections

r6 K1:11: K2:10: with 71349:14: (10 ran second, beat a neck
r7 K1:5: K2:8: with :11::12::13: (8 won, 5 ran second)
*r8 K1:5: K2:9: with 847 (5 won)
r9 k1:11: K2:5: with 487 (5 ran second)

*I noticed my r8 selection came in at::5::7::8::4:
The $2 superfecta paid $2541.

I didn't bet the super here, but in the future I will...
I know that this thread is primarily for Pick 4 selections, however, can I use a format that is understandable AND that can be adapted for vertical exotics also...?

For example:

r6
:11::10:
:11::10:71349(14)
:11::10:71349(14)
:11::10:71349(14)

r7
A :5::8:
B :5::8:(11) (12 (13)
C :5::8:(11) (12 (13)
D :5::8:(11) (12 (13)

r8
A :5::9:
B :5::9:847
C :5::9:847
D :5::9:847

r9
A :11::5:
B :11::5: 487
C :11::5: 487
D :11::5: 487

http://oi68.tinypic.com/15i53ig.jpg

I like this format....

Friday June 9 2017 Late Pick 4 Selections Belmont

Preliminary Selections subject of discussion and change prior to final selections:

r8 :3::8:
r9 :6::8:
r10 :10::11:
r11 :5::7:

Whitmore baby :8:

Is that DRF ticketmaker app free? Cool.

I really like today's races but can't get away from work. Putting more time in tomorrow's card, though it looks really tough.

love Steve Crists book and his ticket structure

yes , it's FREE
http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker

If you like the app, obviously support them by at least taking a look at the DRF store and all that they have to offer in terms of DRF+, and formulator, etc...

If you want to post pictures you can do a screen-capture - upload to an image site like tinypic - resize to 'message board' size and - post in [img][/img] tags