Short Shots (spot play)
 

Short Shots

I have been trying to identify horses with both speed and stamina. Of course most are low odds, but occasionally some higher odd ones come in. Most races have no picks so it is certainly a spot play.

Picks for 4/7/18:

Aqu 7-----#2 Discreet Lover
Kee 2-----#2 Wholehearted
Kee 6-----#6 Limousine Liberal
SA 1------#1 Zusha
SA 4------#8 Sho it N Moe it
SA 9------#3 Bolt d'Oro

GP ------none
Tam-----none

Win = 2/6
Bet = $12.00
Back = $26.00
Net = $14.00

Place = 6/6
Bet = $12.00
Back = $23.80
Net = $11.80

Picks for 4/8/18

GP 4-----#7 Super Duper Girl
GP 9-----#2 Coquivacoa
Tam 2---#7 La Femme Royale
Tam 5---#4 Quickluckycoco
Tam 6---#3 Chicory Blue
Tam 7---#8 No Mercy Percy
SA 1-----#9 Kopitar
SA 4-----#9 Radish
Aqu------no picks

Picks for 4/8/18

GP 4-----#7 Super Duper Girl
GP 9-----#2 Coquivacoa
Tam 2---#7 La Femme Royale---------------xxxx, 4.40
Tam 5---#4 Quickluckycoco
Tam 6---#3 Chicory Blue---------------------4.00, 2.60
Tam 7---#8 No Mercy Percy------------------4.40, 3.20
SA 1-----#9 Kopitar
SA 4-----#9 Radish----------------------------xxxx, 6.00
Aqu------no picks

For the Day:

win 2/8
place 4/8

win = (8.40 - 16) = -7.60
place =(16.20 -16) = +0.20

Overall:

win 4/14
net = +6.40

place 10/14
net = =12.00

Picks for 4/14/18:


Aqu 6-----#3 Miss Munnings
Aqu 8-----#2 Barbarossa

GP 9------#4 Browns Gap
GP 12-----#6 Psycho Girl

OP 2------#3 Pete's Play Call
OP 3------#4 The Money Dance

Kee 2-----#8 He Takes Charge

SA 4------#2 Tengs Rhythm
SA 6------#2 Imalocomotive
SA 11-----#6 Insubordination

win today = +16.00
place today = -1.10



Picks for 4/14/18:


Aqu 6-----#3 Miss Munnings-----------------7.20, 2.90
Aqu 8-----#2 Barbarossa

GP 9------#4 Browns Gap--------------------5.00, 3.20
GP 12-----#6 Psycho Girl-------------------13.60, 6.40

OP 2------#3 Pete's Play Call
OP 3------#4 The Money Dance-------------5.00, 3.20

Kee 2-----#8 He Takes Charge

SA 4------#2 Tengs Rhythm
SA 6------#2 Imalocomotive
SA 11-----#6 Insubordination---------------5.20, 3.20

Overall:

win frequency (9/24) = 37%
win profit (+22.40/48) = 46%



place frequency (15/24) = 62%
place profit (+10.90/48) = 23%

Picks for 4/21/18

Aqu 3-----#5 Sand Dancer
Aqu 4-----#1 Javelin
Aqu 8-----#3 Dynamax Prime
Aqu 9-----#9 Orchid Party
Aqu 10----#12 Appealing Briefs

GP 1------#1 Ray's The Bar
GP 8------#4 Gemologister

Kee 3-----#3 Aubrey
Kee 4-----#8 Ravish
Kee 6-----#6 Katie's Cowboy

SA 9------#3 Princess Ashlyn

Lrl-----------none

win today- = -(13.40)
place today = -(11.30)

Picks for 4/21/18

Aqu 3-----#5 Sand Dancer-------------5.40, 2.70
Aqu 4-----#1 Javelin-------------------XXXX, 2.60
Aqu 8-----#3 Dynamax Prime
Aqu 9-----#9 Orchid Party
Aqu 10----#12 Appealing Briefs

GP 1------#1 Ray's The Bar------------XXXX, 3.00
GP 8------#4 Gemologister

Kee 3-----#3 Aubrey
Kee 4-----#8 Ravish--------------------3.20, 2.40
Kee 6-----#6 Katie's Cowboy

SA 9------#3 Princess Ashlyn

Overall:

win frequency (11/35) = 31%
win profit-(+9.00/70) = +13%



place frequency (19/35) = 54%
place profit-- (-0.40/70) = -1%

Picks for 4/28/18:

Bel 3-----#5 Espresso Caliente
Bel 4-----#4 Doyouknowsomething
Bel 5-----#5 Frontier Market

Lrl 4-----#7 Honey Fireball
Lrl 10----#11 Draconic Treasure

GP 4------#3 Mariealena
GP 7------#9 Rethinkme

SA 7------#6 Super Echelon
SA 9------#5 Miss Ricochet

win today- = -(14.20)
place today = -(1.70)


Picks for 4/28/18:

Bel 3-----#5 Espresso Caliente
Bel 4-----#4 Doyouknowsomething
Bel 5-----#5 Frontier Market-------------------XXXX, 2.30

Lrl 4-----#7 Honey Fireball
Lrl 10----#11 Draconic Treasure--------------XXXX, 6.00

GP 4------#3 Mariealena-----------------------XXXX, 5.20
GP 7------#9 Rethinkme------------------------3.80, 2.80

SA 7------#6 Super Echelon
SA 9------#5 Miss Ricochet

Overall:

win frequency (12/44) = 27%
win-----------(-5.20/88) = 6% loss



place frequency (23/44) = 52%
place----------(-2.10/88) = 2% loss

Picks for 5/4/2018

CD 1-----#5 America's Tale
CD 9-----#9 Enrage
CD 12----#10 Gio Game

Results:

Picks for 5/5/18:

GP 4-----#7 Abbot
GP 12----#7 Cotton Colors

CD 2-----#1 Gray Sky
CD 9-----#10 Maraud
CD 10----#5 Mississippi
CD 14----#5 Locomotion

Results:

Overall:

win frequency (15/53) = 28%
win-----------(+19/106) = 18% profit


place frequency (27/53) = 51%
place----------(+18.70/106) = 18% profit

Correction. Must have been gitty. I neglected to subtract the amount of the bets over the weekend.

Picks for 5/12/18:

Bel 3-----#3 Chalon
Bel 10---#4 Blended Citizen

Mth 1-----#8 Last Play
Mth 4-----#4 Salinger
Mth 10---#3 He's Got Talent

Pim 3-----#3 Hot Friesia
Pim 5-----#8 Troublesome
Pim 8-----#6 True Egyptian

GP 2------#3 Bonterra

SA 2------#5 Foxy Fresh
SA 6------#4 Conquest Typhoon

Picks for 5/12/18:

Bel 3-----#3 Chalon-----------------------xxxx, 3.60
Bel 10---#4 Blended Citizen-------------11.40, 4.40


Mth 1-----#8 Last Play
Mth 4-----#4 Salinger---------------------xxxx, 3.20
Mth 10---#3 He's Got Talent

Pim 3-----#3 Hot Friesia-------------------6.40, 3.40
Pim 5-----#8 Troublesome
Pim 8-----#6 True Egyptian

GP 2------#3 Bonterra

SA 2------#5 Foxy Fresh-------------------xxxx, 2.40
SA 6------#4 Conquest Typhoon

Overall:

win frequency (17/64) = 26%
win---------(-3.20/128) = 2% loss



place frequency (32/64) = 50%
place---------(-4.30/128) = 3% loss

Picks for 5/13/18:

SA 1-----#1 Roaring Fork
SA 2-----#1 Get Yourself Home
SA 3-----#3 Avail
SA 5-----#1 Dee Way to Go
SA 8-----#2 Giant Mark
SA 9-----#5 Amazon Cry

For the Day:

win 3/6
place 5/6
win = (20.00-12.00) = +8.00
place =(21.40-12.00) = +9.40


Picks for 5/13/18:

SA 1-----#1 Roaring Fork----------------XXXX, 8.20
SA 2-----#1 Get Yourself Home----------4.40, 3.00
SA 3-----#3 Avail-------------------------XXXX, 3.00
SA 5-----#1 Dee Way to Go------------- 5.60, 3.20
SA 8-----#2 Giant Mark
SA 9-----#5 Amazon Cry----------------10.00, 4.00


Overall:

win frequency (20/70) = 26%
win---------(+4.80/140) = 3% profit

place frequency (37/70) = 50%
place---------(+4.10/140) = 3% profit

Picks for 5/26/18

Bel 1-----#2 Playwright
Bel 2-----#2 Markitoff
Bel 3-----#5 Ride on Faith
Bel 4-----#3 Charnley River
Bel 5-----#6 Polar City
Bel 6-----#7 Appealing Briefs

Mth 4-----#10 Highland Bowl
Mth 6-----#7 Aqua Teen
Mth 12----#2 Projected

Pim 3-----#4 Scoreearlyandoften

SA 5------#2 Accelerate
SA 6------#6 Itsinthepost
SA 8------#6 Beau Recall

For the Day:

win 6/13
place 8/13
win = (32.00-26.00) = +6.00
place =(26.00-26.00) = +0.00


Picks for 5/26/18

Bel 1-----#2 Playwright---------------2.90, 2.30
Bel 2-----#2 Markitoff-----------------XXX, 4.70
Bel 3-----#5 Ride on Faith------------3.40, 2.40
Bel 4-----#3 Charnley River
Bel 5-----#6 Polar City-----------------8.10, 4.10
Bel 6-----#7 Appealing Briefs----------XXX, 2.90

Mth 4-----#10 Highland Bowl
Mth 6-----#7 Aqua Teen
Mth 12----#2 Projected

Pim 3-----#4 Scoreearlyandoften--------8.20, 4.20

SA 5------#2 Accelerate------------------5.80,3.00
SA 6------#6 Itsinthepost-----------------3.60, 2.40
SA 8------#6 Beau Recall

Overall:

win frequency (26/83) = 31%
win---------(+10.80/166) = 6% profit

place frequency (45/83) = 54%
place---------(+4.10/166) = 2% profit

Picks for 6/2/18

Bel 1-----#1 entry
Bel 2-----#2 Ranger in Paradise
Bel 3-----#2 La Naturet
Bel 5-----#4 Ouro Verde

GP 1-----#9 Oscura
GP 12----#3 Heavens Pulpit

SA 3-----#6 Artistic Ab
SA 4-----#6 Kona Coast
SA 6-----#9 Fly First Class
SA 10----#6 Incensed

AP 7------#6 Puntsville
AP 9------#6 Richie'swildcat

For the Day:

win 5/12
place 6/12
win = (22.10-24.00) = -1.90
place =(19.70-24.00) = -4.30

Picks for 6/2/18

Bel 1-----#1 entry----------------------------5.10, 2.70
Bel 2-----#2 Ranger in Paradise-------------xxxx, 6.60
Bel 3-----#2 La Naturet----------------------3.00, 2.40
Bel 5-----#4 Ouro Verde

GP 1-----#9 Oscura
GP 12----#3 Heavens Pulpit-----------------6.80, 3.00

SA 3-----#6 Artistic Ab
SA 4-----#6 Kona Coast---------------------3.80, 2.60
SA 6-----#9 Fly First Class
SA 10----#6 Incensed

AP 7------#6 Puntsville-----------------------3.40, 2.40
AP 9------#6 Richie'swildcat

Overall:

win frequency (31/95) = 33%
win---------(+8.90/190) = 5% profit

place frequency (51/95) = 54%
place---------(-0.20/190) = -0.1% loss

Picks for 6/9/18

Bel 3-----#4 Pacific Wind

Lrl 1-----#3 Graceful Request
Lrl 2-----#6 Platinum Pound
Lrl 4-----#5 Proud Maid Marion
Lrl 5-----#9 Flight Crew
Lrl 8-----#3 Scrapple
Lrl 12----#2 Crossing the Blues

GP 8------#1 Til the End

SA 4------#10 Pointed
SA 5------#1 Sapphire Kid
SA 7------#3 He's Stylish
SA 10-----#9 Myrcella
SA 11-----#6 Conquest Typhoon

For the Day:

win 3/13
place 5/13
win = (32.20-26.00) = +6.20
place =(24.60-26.00) = - 1.40



Bel 3-----#4 Pacific Wind

Lrl 1-----#3 Graceful Request
Lrl 2-----#6 Platinum Pound------------------4.40, 2.20
Lrl 4-----#5 Proud Maid Marion
Lrl 5-----#9 Flight Crew
Lrl 8-----#3 Scrapple
Lrl 12----#2 Crossing the Blues

GP 8------#1 Til the End----------------------XXXX, 8.20

SA 4------#10 Pointed
SA 5------#1 Sapphire Kid-------------------19.80, 7.40
SA 7------#3 He's Stylish--------------------XXXX, 2.80
SA 10-----#9 Myrcella------------------------ 8.00, 4.00
SA 11-----#6 Conquest Typhoon

Overall:

win frequency (34/108) = 32%
win---------(+15.10/216.00) = 7% profit

place frequency (56/108) = 52%
place---------(-1.60/216.00) = -1% loss

Picks for 6/16/18:

Bel 1-----#1 Patriotic Endeavor
Bel 2-----#3 Changewilldoyagood
Bel 5-----#5 Honey Dont

Lrl 1------#2 Daniella
Lrl 2------#6 Margie's Money
Lrl 11-----#6 Limited View

GP 2------#7 Quickluckycoco
GP 3------#2 Mauras Forever
GP 5------#3 Bitacora
GP 7------#11 Kyle's Boy
GP 12-----#4 Home Power

CD 4------#9 Brenda's Fever
CD 7------#2 Mopotism
CD 10-----#1 Honorable Treasure
CD 11-----#3 My Eminence

SA 2------#4 Keyson
SA 3------#2 Move Over
SA 4------#4 Anonymity
SA 6------#5 Chocolate Martini
SA 10-----#10 Beautiful Becca

win 4/17
place 7/17
win = (22.40-34.00) = -11.60
place =(23.90-34.00) = -10.20

Picks for 6/16/18:

Bel 1-----#1 Patriotic Endeavor---------------------xxx, 3.90
Bel 2-----#3 Changewilldoyagood
Bel 5-----#5 Honey Dont

Lrl 1------#2 Daniella-------------------------------xxx, 2.80
Lrl 2------#6 Margie's Money----------------------5.80, 2.80
Lrl 11-----#6 Limited View

GP 2------#7 Quickluckycoco
GP 3------#2 Mauras Forever----------------------5.80, 3.80
GP 5------#3 Bitacora-----------------------------10.00, 5.20
GP 7------#11 Kyle's Boy
GP 12-----#4 Home Power

CD 4------#9 Brenda's Fever
CD 7------#2 Mopotism
CD 10-----#1 Honorable Treasure
CD 11-----#3 My Eminence------------------------xxx, 3.00

SA 2------#4 Keyson
SA 3------#2 Move Over--------------------------scratched
SA 4------#4 Anonymity--------------------------3.00, 2.40
SA 6------#5 Chocolate Martini
SA 10-----#10 Beautiful Becca ------------------scratched

Overall:

win frequency (38/125) = 30%
win---------(+3.50/250.00) = 1% profit

place frequency (63/125) = 50%
place---------(-11.70/250.00) = -5% loss

Picks for 6/23/18

Bel 1-----#3 Saturdays Vapor
Bel 2-----#3 Herecomesyourman
Bel 7-----#7 Dream Passage
Bel 8-----#2 Turco Bravo
Bel 10----#12 Appealing Briefs

Mth 1-----#1 Match the Pot
Mth 7-----#5 Lady Bergen
Mth 8-----#4 Zeven
Mth 9-----#7 Tattered

SA 1------#4 Flammetta
SA 3------#5 Incensed
SA 8------#8 Paddock Pick

win 4/12
place 7/12
win = (21.80-24.00) = -2.20
place =(25.20-44.00) = +1.20

Picks for 6/23/18

Bel 1-----#3 Saturdays Vapor
Bel 2-----#3 Herecomesyourman-----------------XXXX, 3.30
Bel 7-----#7 Dream Passage
Bel 8-----#2 Turco Bravo
Bel 10----#12 Appealing Briefs---------------------3.20, 2.30

Mth 1-----#1 Match the Pot
Mth 7-----#5 Lady Bergen-------------------------XXXX, 2.40
Mth 8-----#4 Zeven----------------------------------3.40, 2.20
Mth 9-----#7 Tattered-----------------------------XXXX, 7.80

SA 1------#4 Flammetta----------------------------9.80, 3.60
SA 3------#5 Incensed------------------------------5.40, 3.60
SA 8------#8 Paddock Pick

Overall:

win frequency (42/137) = 31%
win---------(+1.30/274.00) = <1% profit

place frequency (70/137) = 51%
place---------(-10.50/274.00) = -4% loss

Picks for 6/30/18

GP 2-----#8 Gusty Wind
GP 3-----#1 Alter Moon
GP 5-----#7 Silent Tiger

Mth 1----#7 Lovely Sunset
Mth 8----#2 Backsideofthemoon
Mth 9----#1 Elysea's World
Mth 10---#2 Divine Miss Grey

WO 1-----#7 Carolina Grace
WO 10----#11 Wonder Gadot
WO 13----#1 Hey Howie

CD 1------#2 Electric Avenue
CD 8------#7 Decant

LA 1------#6 Flika
LA 6------#2 Bahamian
LA 7------#6 Rprettyboyfloyd
LA 9------#2 Artistic Ab

win 4/16
place 5/16
win = (16.50-32.00) = -15.50.
place =(16.20-32.00) = -15.80


Picks for 6/30/18

GP 2-----#8 Gusty Wind
GP 3-----#1 Alter Moon---------------3.20, 2.20
GP 5-----#7 Silent Tiger

Mth 1----#7 Lovely Sunset
Mth 8----#2 Backsideofthemoon
Mth 9----#1 Elysea's World
Mth 10---#2 Divine Miss Grey-------2.80, 2.40

WO 1-----#7 Carolina Grace---------xxx, 4.70
WO 10----#11 Wonder Gadot-------6.40, 3.80
WO 13----#1 Hey Howie-------------4.10, 3.10

CD 1------#2 Electric Avenue
CD 8------#7 Decant

LA 1------#6 Flika
LA 6------#2 Bahamian
LA 7------#6 Rprettyboyfloyd
LA 9------#2 Artistic Ab

Overall:

win frequency (46/153) = 30%
win---------(-14.20/306.00) = 5% loss

place frequency (75/153) = 49%
place---------(-26.30/306.00) = 9% loss

Picks for 7/7/18

Bel 2-----#8 Mighty Zealous
Bel 6-----#4 Noble Indy
Bel 9-----#3 Zanotti
Bel 11----#9 Dream Passage

GP 2------#7 Resistance Jak
GP 5------#7 Solve
GP 6------#8 Camila Princess
GP 8------#1 Peggity
GP 11-----#6 Casual Caro
GP 12-----#1 Silent Citizen

AP 4------#1 You Split Tens
AP 5------#3 Pont Du Gard
AP 6------#13 Daddy's Lil Darling
AP 10-----#8 Bird Key

win 3/13
place 6/13
win = (12.70-26.00) = -13.30
place =(18.60-26.00) = -7.40


Picks for 7/7/18

Bel 2-----#8 Mighty Zealous
Bel 6-----#4 Noble Indy
Bel 9-----#3 Zanotti
Bel 11----#9 Dream Passage----------------3.90, 2.70

GP 2------#7 Resistance Jak----------------XXXX, 3.40
GP 5------#7 Solve---------------------------XXXX, 3.20
GP 6------#8 Camila Princes-----------------3.00, 2.10
GP 8------#1 Peggity
GP 11-----#6 Casual Caro
GP 12-----#1 Silent Citizen

AP 4------#1 You Split Tens----------------XXXX, 3.60
AP 5------#3 Pont Du Gard
AP 6------#13 Daddy's Lil Darling----------5.80, 3.40
AP 10-----#8 Bird Key

Overall:

win frequency (49/166) = 30%
win---------(-27.50/332.00) = 8% loss

place frequency (81/166) = 49%
place---------(-33.70/332.00) = 10% loss

Picks for 7/14/18

GP 9-----#8 Giant's Voice
GP 11----#5 Island Reward

Bel 1-----#8 J C S Star
Bel 4-----#6 Ranger in Paradise
Bel 7-----#8 Honey Graeme

Lrl 4-----#4 Virginia Fable
Lrl 8-----#9 Heelstothesky

win 2/7
place 3/7
win = (9.80-14.00) = -4.20
place =(11.90-14.00) = -3.10

Picks for 7/14/18

GP 9-----#8 Giant's Voice
GP 11----#5 Island Reward

Bel 1-----#8 J C S Star
Bel 4-----#6 Ranger in Paradise------------------XXXX, 3.80
Bel 7-----#8 Honey Graeme-----------------------6.40, 4.30

Lrl 4-----#4 Virginia Fable--------------------------3.40, 2.80
Lrl 8-----#9 Heelstothesky




Overall:

win frequency (50/173) = 29%
win---------(-31.70/346.00) = 8% loss

place frequency (81/166) = 49%
place---------(-36.80/346.00) = 11% loss

Picks for 7/21/18

Sar 3-----#5 Behavioral Bias
Sar 9-----#1 Sombeyay
Sar 11----#2 Thatcher Steel

Dmr 1-----#1 Coco Kisses

win 1/4
place 3/4
win = (7.70-8.00) = -0.30
place =(10.80-8.00) = +2.80


Picks for 7/21/18

Sar 3-----#5 Behavioral Bias-------------XXXX, 3.40
Sar 9-----#1 Sombeyay------------------- 7.70, 4.00
Sar 11----#2 Thatcher Steel

Dmr 1-----#1 Coco Kisses-----------------XXXX, 3.40


Overall:

win frequency (52/177) = 29%
win---------(-32.00/354.00) = 9% loss

place frequency (87/177) = 49%
place---------(-34.00/354.00) = 10% loss

Pick for 7/28/18

Lrl 2-----#3 Meddybemps
Lrl 7-----#7 Grand Lassie
Lrl 9-----#2 Gimmie Kimmy
Lrl 10----#2 Ballard High

GP 5------#6 Son of Greatness
GP 10-----#2 Bingo Kitten

Sar 7----#5 Strike Power
Sar 8-----#4 Imperial Hint
Sar 9-----#6 Sadler's Joy

WO 8------#2 Rose's Vision

Dmr 4-----#7 Kershaw
Dmr 6-----#1 Tough But Nice
Dmr 9-----#3 Roy H
Dmr 10----#7 Ocean Fury

win 2/13
place 4/13
win = (6.80-26.00) = -19.20
place =(11.60-26.00) = -14.40

Pick for 7/28/18

Lrl 2-----#3 Meddybemps
Lrl 7-----#7 Grand Lassie---------------scratched
Lrl 9-----#2 Gimmie Kimmy
Lrl 10----#2 Ballard High

GP 5------#6 Son of Greatness
GP 10-----#2 Bingo Kitten

Sar 7----#5 Strike Power
Sar 8-----#4 Imperial Hint--------------3.60, 2.70
Sar 9-----#6 Sadler's Joy

WO 8------#2 Rose's Vision-------------xxxx, 3.30

Dmr 4-----#7 Kershaw------------------3.20, 2.60
Dmr 6-----#1 Tough But Nice
Dmr 9-----#3 Roy H---------------------xxxx, 3.00
Dmr 10----#7 Ocean Fury




Overall:

win frequency (54/190) = 28%
win---------(-51.20/380.00) = 13% loss