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-   -   Beat the Chalk at 2-1 or less...ie...throw-outs from win spot (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=123120)

ReplayRandall 06-14-2015 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ultracapper
Betting aggressively against Miller in the 4th at SA on Sunday 6/14

As Rick Perry would say.....Ooops..... :)

ultracapper 06-14-2015 05:30 PM

Damn it!! I had the right "other one" also.

ultracapper 06-14-2015 05:36 PM

You think I'd just do a saver exacta? Hell no, that would be too easy. Did you see what that exacta pay? I really shouldn't care, but you know how it is.

ultracapper 06-14-2015 05:47 PM

HA!! It paid $5.10. Glad I just took my lumps.

Lemon Drop Husker 06-14-2015 07:07 PM

R8 Santa Anita.

:8: Sam's Sister will be the chalk at somewhere from 3/5 to 6/5. She had a monster summer/fall/winter campaign as she won 5 of her first 6 races including the G1 La Brea and G2 Santa Monica at this very track. She ran into some tougher competition in her last two while getting some rest in between and heading into this one. She is unbeaten at Santa Anita (3 for 3) and is 2 for 2 at the distance.

A lighter field, supposedly, won't be a breather as there is oodles of speed on tap in here with the :2::5::6::9::11: all possessing front runner tendencies and sharpness from the gate. That should open it up for someone to come off the pace with Sam's Sister being the one to beat and could well encounter traffic problems.

I'll look for the :4: Living The Life and/or the :7: Harlington's Rose to get the job done today, and maybe even keep Sam's Sister out of the Exacta along with the :5: Wasted Talent.

Lemon Drop Husker 06-14-2015 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
R8 Santa Anita.

:8: Sam's Sister will be the chalk at somewhere from 3/5 to 6/5. She had a monster summer/fall/winter campaign as she won 5 of her first 6 races including the G1 La Brea and G2 Santa Monica at this very track. She ran into some tougher competition in her last two while getting some rest in between and heading into this one. She is unbeaten at Santa Anita (3 for 3) and is 2 for 2 at the distance.

A lighter field, supposedly, won't be a breather as there is oodles of speed on tap in here with the :2::5::6::9::11: all possessing front runner tendencies and sharpness from the gate. That should open it up for someone to come off the pace with Sam's Sister being the one to beat and could well encounter traffic problems.

I'll look for the :4: Living The Life and/or the :7: Harlington's Rose to get the job done today, and maybe even keep Sam's Sister out of the Exacta along with the :5: Wasted Talent.

Welp, we got the :8: to finish 3rd, but I certainly couldn't see the :2: winning this thing in gate to wire fashion at a bomb of a price at 43/1. :eek: A near $90 winner and a $560 Exacta. I guess you can't be immune to the "All" button sometimes. :D

sammy the sage 06-14-2015 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
R8 Santa Anita.

:8: Sam's Sister will be the chalk at somewhere from 3/5 to 6/5. She had a monster summer/fall/winter campaign as she won 5 of her first 6 races including the G1 La Brea and G2 Santa Monica at this very track. She ran into some tougher competition in her last two while getting some rest in between and heading into this one. She is unbeaten at Santa Anita (3 for 3) and is 2 for 2 at the distance.

A lighter field, supposedly, won't be a breather as there is oodles of speed on tap in here with the :2::5::6::9::11: all possessing front runner tendencies and sharpness from the gate. That should open it up for someone to come off the pace with Sam's Sister being the one to beat and could well encounter traffic problems.

I'll look for the :4: Living The Life and/or the :7: Harlington's Rose to get the job done today, and maybe even keep Sam's Sister out of the Exacta along with the :5: Wasted Talent.

nice write & call on the big fav. NOT winning!...

sammy the sage 06-27-2015 09:37 AM

6/27/15
 
6/27/15 Santa Anita

7th race Triple Bend...Masochistic...don't like the work-out pattern change...and that last work...wow...still a weak grade 1.....maybe he get's it done...betting against tho...b.o.l. all...

sammy the sage 07-04-2015 07:20 AM

7/4 Happy birthday USA !
 
Belmont the Dwyer...Texas Red should get beat today...thinking this is a prep for the Dandy/Travers...especially off a problem...and on a rolled sealed track or sloppy...coming from dead last at this distance will be tough against this bunch....some other's improving as well....

current record 3-2...big stakes only...

pandy 07-04-2015 10:06 AM

Samraat is a nice horse but off the long layoff in the 4th at Belmont today, he seems vulnerable, especially considering that he had screws put in him since his last race.

lamboguy 07-04-2015 10:25 AM

bet the chalk
 
Bel 1-4, 8-2

Del 1-4, 5-7

Mth 2-3

Prx 1-2

Wdb 9-2

sammy the sage 07-04-2015 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy
Bel 1-4, 8-2

Del 1-4, 5-7

Mth 2-3

Prx 1-2

Wdb 9-2

think I'll start a thread w/that...my bet would be Tonalist today...w/the upcoming weather will be even tougher...

the Key to betting chalk in my book is to create value by betting w/another horse...that's YOUR job...but I try to get 6/1 at least w/either doubles or exactas or pik3/4's...

sammy the sage 07-04-2015 08:46 PM

Great call Pandy....thanks for the reasoning as well....

record now for o.p....4-2...in big stakes...

pandy 07-04-2015 08:52 PM

Thanks. I read about the injury and operation he had in the Daily Racing Form yesterday.

sammy the sage 07-05-2015 07:33 AM

7/5/15...Gulfstream smile sprint 250k...9/5 shot Work All Week....ain't coming down to fla. at 90 deg.'s + humidity for feel like temp of 105+....unless much the best...don't think so...might not even hit the board...would watch post parade and make a call...


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