Anothertwistafate
 

Here is a semi-hype horse I hope takes some money in the Preakness. He lost in the Sunland Derby to Cutting Humor, who finished a non threatening 10th in the derby and he lost to Owendale in the Lexington who finished 10 lengths behind War of Will and 7.5 behind Country House in the Risen Star. A great bet against. Hes clearly a cut below and prob best on artificial or turf.

as much as i hate the outside at least he won't be hemmed in and blanketed this race like the lexington and should be given a clear path.

the more i look at him the more i hate the post and question where he will be in the race.

even though he looks like he could call on his speed some, where is going with it.

horse looks like he's chit out of luck...especially with the 679 inside him, not even taking into account the 1 and 3 and the horses on the inside looking for position

He ran against it last out (owendale ran with it) and I don’t think the race took a lot out of him. He’s a big threat in my opinion

he's a threat because he has early speed. i just think that it won't matter because of everything that will go on inside of him.

his last 2 race have been pretty similar. and in both he was in good position for the most part. if he tries to race like this again he'll likely be around 5th/6th in the early going from this post

and even if he wants to get better position by going faster, i don't know if he can. but if he does decide to do this the likelihood is that he will get fried and race wide. there's also a strong chance he'll be wide regardless

He's facing five other runners with same or higher average LP figures and a couple additional runners who have flashed he same... but consistently holds his speed well late. Outside post a mild disadvantage for his style. Could be a legit threat but could also be a mild underlay in by far the toughest field he's faced. I'll use defensively underneath.

Gonna be right there . . .
 

Gets Ortiz2; He's gonna go early, take a glance over his left shoulder, settle in and be sittin' sweet right behind the early speed; from there on in its just conservation of energy until the time to move. I like him because he comes in fresh off a mild 6f bullet. I think they are gonna be chasing him down the stretch, just a matter if he can hold on with Improbable and War of Will taking dead aim at him. I actually had him as one of my top picks for the Derby and was relieved he didn't get in.

Trainer says, “I couldn't be happier with where we're at,” he added. “He's eating up. It's time to race.”

:12:
:4:
:1:

i don't think think this horse will ever see the front or ever be in the lead.

if he is he'll be contesting it early and spitting it out

Like my chances . . .
 

Gotta decide if he is or if he isn't . . .

~

I like my chances w/him @ 6/1. War of Will and Improbable are no doubt the class of the field but can't tell what that Kentucky did to em', bettin' they don't have energy for a long stretch drive. I like Twists 6f work, only horse showing that type gets a positive jock switch . . . “I couldn't be happier with where we're at, he's eating up. It's time to race.”

i don't care what the trainer says..post 12 isn't the problem for a horse with tactical speed. it's all the horses inside him that want the same position that's the problem

you know the 9 is gunning.

you know the 7 will be leaving hard as well.

the 6 has no chance in the race but should play a big part in the pace and you really can't rule the horse out on the front end early on. if he isn't on the front end he'll be prompting it.

there's little chance that fate gets over any of these 3 without using using a lot of horse. and he really hasn't shown the ability to even do so on the dirt

now go to the inside. the 3 will be slinging it possibly on the lead or 2nd as well.

back to 1....he has no choice to be used more because of the rail and because of all of this..then you have baffert with smith, and you can't rule that horse being up closer as well.

all of this translates into a 12 horse that will likely race wide and will have to make multiple moves into quite possibly a fast pace

i guess he could leave and try not be wide and sit 5th-6th..and hope to pick up the pieces....but i just think this is the best case scenario and one that won't happen

I've use Quirin's Speed Points System, it gets rid of most of the conjecture and helps w/envisioning how the race will be run. Here is what I get:

:3: Warrior's Charge 5 points (s5)
:7: Alwaysmining 5 points (s5)
:12: Anothertwistafate 4 points (s4)
:4: Improbable 4 points (s4)
Every other is 3 or less.

As I wrote, I figure the :3: and the :7: go, the :12: is wide but he also goes, tucks tight behind the :3::7:. I don't think they'll be as wide as you may think, but that is subjective. The Speed Bias is 100% but only (2) route races . . . won by E, E/P types from the inside. It will be interesting to see if the speed holds and for how long. "Two-horse speed duels do not normally defeat the horses that engage in them, but three-horse duels do. (Quinn 2012) I'm thinkin' the presser overtakes the speed as they turn for home w/the :1: and the :4: fixin' to reak havoc. I'm bettin' a fresh horse and a top jock holds off the weakened class.

That's how I see it, but mind you I haven't picked a winner since I can last remember, but I'm thinkin' if you consider all that has happened along this Trail and what happened in the Kentucky, I'm figurin' there has to be another twist of fate.

well,..if the 6 and 9 don't get involved early it would definitely help fate.

when i look at the race i would be lying if i said i believe they won't be involved early to some degree, and quite possibly a huge degree....i just see the 12 getting the worst of it.

Anotherlookinsidefate . . .
 

I did gave the PPs another review and you are correct . . . I did overlook the 6 horse w/(4) speed points. I still show Bodexpress w/3 speed points. If the 6 or the 9 go w/the 3 and the 7, they may make it more likely a (3) horse duel develops - that's what I'd like to see. Your point is well taken that all that potential speed to the inside may be problematic for the 12. We'll see what Ortiz2 has for em'. . .

FYI
8-7: High early speed
6-5: Good early speed
xx4: Acceptable early speed
0-3: Poor early speed

I like anothertwistafate, bullets at high altitude at sunland, bullet 6f at GG. Good works. He's fit.

Anothertwistafate got me thinking of horse names. How bout Kickinthedick? Explains how I feel a majority of the time betting the Preakness. Although I did have Oxbow one year and got paid pretty well.