Saratoga&Del Mar 'Train-of Thought' welcome to play along&share your $0.02
 

Let's Go! #positivity #luck #learn #enjoy

1st race Saratoga coming up soon :jump:

https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...21&oe=5BE6DF76

RACE 1
 

First thought is that the :1: has become a colloquial 'wise-guy' horse. ML was a touch high, everybody fell in love with the 10/1 ML but they aren't getting 10/1 - he's as low as 4/1 while I type this and figures to go off perhaps 9/2-6/1 at post.
I'd prefer to exclude a negative value like this.

This distance/configuration is going to favor a horse who can break quickly without using a ton of horse and secure a forward inside position. Who fits that bill??
:2: Nobody Move showed improved tactical/gate speed last time. Castellano is back and they've got nothing to lose here trying for a claim repeat share of $50k and $25 claim tag. Seems like a horse for course that everyone is trying to beat...

:5::6::7: all figure to be close.

The :6: is the most interesting. He's a danger to break to the lead.

:7: Improved with the switch to Amoss/Moss. Figures to contend.

:2::6::7::5:

:2: Nobody Move was not a factor, but the :6: carried his weight with a good trip behind cheap speed 3.

:7: Ran 'ok' to get third. Overlooked Turco Bravo closed inside for 2nd.


I just did a win dutch in that race, so was happy to have the 6 @ $13+change. That was the value as he was almost as big a price as the #1 underlay , and Turco Bravo who seemed outclassed.

2nd race
 

Not crazy about this race. Also getting some distractions / phone-calls


I don't like the :1:. I feel that's an 'obvious' trap for a mediocre contender.

Suppose there is value elsewhere, but I don't have the play in mind.

small dd vs 1 (245910 w/ 268) and emphasized for the chalk amongst thoses

Got through the 1st half of the Double , but very chalky.

Was right about the :1: being a 'trap'.

Hindsight = I wish I had played the exacta, but wasn't happy with my depth of opinion, so I stuck to picking the winners.
#2 in race3 = small profit, #6 or #8 moderate profit.

r3
 

First thought is that the :4: Sicilia Mike is a decent sized underlay. Cool name. He's mildly dangerous to suck-up and trip into 2nd or 3rd...

:3: Come on Cat - Brave effort in an electric pace last time. He was actually well handled by Pennington, it wasn't a MONSTER effort but was solid. Unfortunately he's taking money. I'd want him to be 7/1 and S.Mike 7/2 in a dream 'green-light' scenario...


:2::6: are ultra-obvious takeout pits. No value here. Either could dominate. Both have '?'s.

:8: is the temptation. That last race was better than it looked. The 5 in that race was supposed to clobber them, but the pace never really allowed a breather and a closer nailed that 5 in the stretch.


So I'm looking :3::8: top/bottom :2::3::6::8: for value. considerations, but to be honest they ain't paying me the kind of money I want for 'reaching' for a value number @ 'TOGA. :confused:
If 8 scores, I get the generous double multiple times, and I'm not in love with the 3.

--------------

Ok , NEXT thought (choo choo #thought train)
Who does the :3: Come on Pussy Cat 'HURT' the most? :2: or :6:??
Answer? = He hurts the :2: the most. :2: Wants to cruise near, not duel a philly cheese steak.... The :6: tried to close into a slow pace last time, so this looks to be a value boost (tough to boost chalk). Also helps the sucker-bet :4: Sicilian Michael. If he was 10/1 where he should be, I'd consider under a tri or exacta...

Considering a 50cent backdoor tri :6:/ :2::3::8: / :5::7: (late closing 3rd from the turtles??)

nah...

Im going WILD HERE (and I wish some of you guys would chime in with some thoughts/opinions/picks/etc...)
Going to throw $2 to SHOW on my :6: for a trip bet , maybe he gets set up by the 3?

:6: appeared to 'miss the thought train' there. #3 did in fact do some dirty work before heading toward the 'caboose.'
Logic seemed good, but was 'off track', as the #2 did just fine behind the cheap speed.

$2 to show ticket was 'derailed'

out of bad puns, but the chalky 2 saved my emphasized double in a 'blanket' finish...
Overlooked #1 spiced up the tickets for those who like to do the old Chalk/chaos/chaos play in these top meet's cheaper races :ThmbUp:
Wow nevermind that= it was a really Light payout!:ThmbDown: Everybody must have gone that route.

r4 Guessing game / 2nd chance for MCLM turfers ...

My thought here is to make a run to the store to pick up a few items for seafood linguine dinner.

Will sink my teeth back into the card when returned / settled. :ThmbUp:

I hope some of you guys chime in , perhaps carry the thread with some picks :ThmbUp:

There's too many del Mar races I like tomorrow, gotta take it easy today. So haven't any PPs. But enjoying the thought train as I watch the races.

Just looking at the free TFUS for R9, there's no real pace/pace setter. Best value seems to be the :2:, a 30-1 long shot who's not run in such tough company yet :D But I like the :6: or :8: for the win. Of the closers I like :1:

:7: is a contender but still vulnerable fave, looks like short odds due to Chad Brown as trainer. 3-1 nah.

Very tempting to try to construct a tri or cheap super and squeeze value out of this.

I will check him out. Big price and Matz has occasionally long shots like that.



7th race = Supposed to be against the wide :12:, and with the Rail/Chad Brown:1:, but EVERYONE is going that direction, and there's no value in that...

If I'm tossing :12:, I'm tossing :10: also = in addition to wide-draw he also was close to that soft pace.
I do like the :2: out of that same race as the 10.

I can't bet :1::2: at these prices for the obvious Chad Brown in here.

Pass and looking at the 8th, 9th... :ThmbUp:

So much for the post position bias...

looked like :12: held on

Looking forward to see if Casse's Cathereinethegreat with J Ortiz pulls through as the favourite. Drives me nuts to see a dominant up in the Canadian stakes races but down in the USA I want to see him win! Might throw down a working class dollar if the odds aren't too short at post.

Picks
 

Remainder of Saratoga picks. Had a few pricy winners today so feel good for tomorrow.

8: :1::8::9:

9: :7::2::3:

10: :8::11::7:

Best of luck to all! :p

r8

2 - looks electric

8 is a good price

257810