The Jersey Exchange Layers (12-24-2018)
 

In this thread I will attempt to make a profit using exchange tracks laying horses.


Here are my rules.


1. Only one horse a day
2. my bet will be posted before the race is run
3. stake will be 50 units
4. will not post everyday. Only when the appropriate opportunity arises.
5. Most if not all of my bets will be SP. (Betfair Starting Price)
6. all of my bets will be lays
7. actual Profits/And or losses will be posted with the 12% commission deducted. (losses dont have a commission attached to them)

8. Thread will end after 100 plays. (5000 units risked)


Allan

My first play will be a bet against will be an easy one

50 units against :2: Market high in the first race at Tampa today (1-4-2019). Slow 1 for 20 mare with no redeeming qualities in a 5 horse field at BSP (Betfair Starting Price)

Allan

Results

50@29.24

Profit—1.57

Allan

2nd play

Tampa 1st today 1-5-2019

:4: Dancers Kin

Slow maiden for low percentage connections in a 6 horse field

50 units @ BSP against.

Allan

2nd play results

50@15.30

Profit 3.07

Composite results

2 plays
Profit—4.64

Allan

3rd play

50 units on :3: good save is a horse that has soured on racing, used to be good but now is on at least an 0 for 23 run with one second for low percentage connections. Today is not the day.

Parx 2nd (1-7-2019)

Allan

3nd play results

50@93.66

Profit—.47

Composite results

Plays 3

Profit—5.11

Sorry about that price 12-1 ml becomes 93 yikes

Allan

4th play

8th at Parx (1-8-2019)

I always love betting against good trip winners when the horse won’t get one today so 50 units against :5: don’t make it easy. Won 2 of 3 but this is harder.

Allan

Just realized race was running when I posted. So no play

However I did win the race but I won’t count it

Bet
20:34 Parx Racing At Philadelphia Park
Dont Make It Easy - Win
Lay 22.63
(BSP) 2,31 49,97
2,03
Won
08-Jan-19
20:35:38 20:34 Parx Racing At Philadelphia Park
Dont Make It Easy - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:150207914145 | Placed: 08-Jan-19 20:27:13 Lay 22.63
(BSP) 2,31 49,97
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 2,31 | Commission (12.12%): ($) 0,28 | Net Profit/Loss: 2,03

Allan

4th play take 2

I hate absolutely hate :6: Prequalified in the 1st at Tampa today. (1-11-2019)
5 year old gelding has had 4 starts and has not shown any ability to pass horse so low percentage jock will have to use him early and that early effort will take too much out of him and he will be fading late. Trainer won only one race last year, so bob Baffert he is not.

All signs are pointing to him not winning so

50 units against @betfair starting price.

Allan

4th play results

11-Jan-19
17:51:32 17:45 Tampa Bay Downs
Prequalified - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:150456895130 | Placed: 11-Jan-19 17:20:22 Lay 24.78
(BSP) 2,10 49,94
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 2,10 | Commission (11.90%): ($) 0,25 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 1,85

Composite

4 plays
Profit—6.96

Allan

5th play

Going with a Firster here.

50 units on :1: itsallridingonme to lose Tampa,s 5th on 1-12-2019

Horse works have been slow and draws the rail for low percentage connections

Maiden specials doesn’t seem like a good spot for debut.

Allan

5th play results

12-Jan-19
19:53:42 19:38 Tampa Bay Downs
Itsallridingonme - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:150615673122 | Placed: 12-Jan-19 19:34:12 Lay 106.38
(BSP) 0,47 49,53
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 0,47 | Commission (12.77%): ($) 0,06 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 0,41

Yikes 12-1ml becomes 105-1. Lol. Not good.

Composite

5 plays
Profits 7.37

Allan

6th play

I really don’t like :4: Gold Ducat in today’s 6th at Tampa. (1-13-2019) Speed and fade in only turf try and broke maiden last out dirt sprinting. Unsure why they are giving turf another go but these are low percentage connections for a reason.

50 units @ BSP against.

Allan

6th play results

13-Jan-19
19:57:23 19:49 Tampa Bay Downs
Gold Ducat - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:150727060254 | Placed: 13-Jan-19 19:44:26 Lay 46.83
(BSP) 1,09 49,95
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 1,09 | Commission (11.93%): ($) 0,13 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 0,96

Composite

6 plays
Profits 8.33

Allan

7th play

Going out to Lingfield racetrack for today’s play

50 units @BSP on :2: Not So Shy in the 3rd at Lingfield (1-18-2019) slow horse that has never even made it into the exacta. One day it will find a field that it can beat. This field ain’t it.

Allan

7th play results

18-Jan-19
14:03:58 14:00 Lingfield
Not So Shy - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:151110872322 | Placed: 18-Jan-19 13:45:47 Lay 15.81
(BSP) 3,37 49,91
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 3,37 | Commission (11.87%): ($) 0,40 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 2,97

Composite

7 plays
Profits—11.30

Allan

8th play

50 units on :4: ZJ Wins in the 1st at Tampa (1-19-2019) to lose.
Looks a lot slower than most of these. Last win was at Monmouth in a 5000 beaten claimer many races back. Looks like a mid pack clunker and an easy horse to bet against.

Allan

8th play results

19-Jan-19
17:17:05 17:09 Tampa Bay Downs
Z J Wins - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:151285022187 | Placed: 19-Jan-19 16:45:54 Lay 23.72
(BSP) 2,20 49,98
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 2,20 | Commission (11.82%): ($) 0,26 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 1,94

Composite

8 plays
Profits—13.24

Allan

9th play

50 units@BSP on :7: Promethean in the 8th at Tampa today (1-20-2019)
Seems a bit slower than most of these. A mid pack clunk is prolly the best this horse can do here. Easy to play against.

Allan

9th play results

20-Jan-19
20:57:49 20:50 Tampa Bay Downs
Promethean - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:151428277987 | Placed: 20-Jan-19 20:36:36 Lay 42.00
(BSP) 1,21 49,61
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 1,21 | Commission (12.40%): ($) 0,15 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 1,06

Composite

9 plays
Profits—-14.30

Allan

10th play

50 units @BSP against :1: Shake Me Handy at the 1:55 at Lingfield today (1-26-2017)

Slow horse, ice cold trainer and jock spells a loss in my book

Allan

10th play results


26-Jan-19
13:58:49 13:55 Lingfield
Shake Me Handy - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:151916974025 | Placed: 26-Jan-19 13:52:42 Lay 13.52
(BSP) 3,99 49,95

Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 3,99| Commission (11.98%): ($) 0,48| Net Profit/Loss: ($) 3,51

Composite

10 plays
Profit—-17.81

11th play

I laid the :1: miss Viscounti @25-1 odds 50 units in the first at Tampa bay today

Slow horse

Should lose to odds on choice the :7:

Allan

11th play results

17:34:03 17:22 Tampa Bay Downs
Miss Visconti - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:152352062785 | Placed: 30-Jan-19 17:21:24 Lay 26.00 2,00 50,00
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 2,00 | Commission (12.00%): ($) 0,24 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 1,76

Composite

11 plays
Profits—-19.57

BTW this is the first time I locked odds and didn’t use BSP.
I thought the price would drift and was correct

I locked at 26.00 BSP was 49.52

Allan

12th play

Will be playing against :5: straight madness in the 1st at Tampa (2-2-2019) was prolly entered to make sure the race went for his stablemate who needed a race. Horse will be far back early and attempt to rally race is 5.5f way too short for this horse to give his best performance

50 units @BSP to lay.

Allan

12th play results

02-Feb-19
17:50:27 17:40 Tampa Bay Downs
Straight Madness - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:152675371223 | Placed: 02-Feb-19 16:58:41 Lay 88.48
(BSP) 0,57 49,86
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 0,57 | Commission (12.28%): ($) 0,07 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 0,50

Wowsie 33-1 on the tote. 87-1 BSP. We take the profit and move on

Composite

12 plays
Profits—20.07

Allan

13th play

50 units @BSP against :5: Hasty lady in Tampa 2nd (2-3-2019)

Horse broke maiden in sloooooowww time. Much faster horses in this one. Pace factor and than backs up when the real running commences.

Allan

13th play results

03-Feb-19
18:19:22 18:10 Tampa Bay Downs
Hasty Lady - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:152809723433 | Placed: 03-Feb-19 17:55:06 Lay 141.34
(BSP) 0,35 49,12
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 0,35 | Commission (11.43%): ($) 0,04 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 0,31

Another wowsie. 37-1 on the tote 140-1 BSP we again will take the profit and move on.

Composite

13 plays
Profits—-20.38

Allan

14th play

50 units@BSP on:3:Rallelujah to lose the 8th at Turf Paradise (2-5-2019)

Slow low winning percentage horse for low percentage connections. Primed for another loss today.

Allan

14th play results

5-Feb-19
23:12:18 23:05 Turf Paradise
Rallelujah - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:152982756981 | Placed: 05-Feb-19 21:58:58 Lay 182.86
(BSP) 0,26 47,28
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 0,26 | Commission (11.54%): ($) 0,03 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 0,23

Composite

14 plays
Profits—-20.61

Wowsie once again 56-1 on the tote. 181-1 BSP

Will have to change my selection choices.

Allan

15th play


50 units @BSP against :2: Jens Big O in the 6th at Turf Paradise (2-6-2019)


slow horse with low percentage connection. the horse doesnt like to win, has never won at the distance (0 for 21) with a bug boy who hasnt won at the meet. primed for another loss


Allan

15th play results

06-Feb-19
22:09:30 22:03 Turf Paradise
Jens Big O - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:153074382365 | Placed: 06-Feb-19 21:33:17 Lay 29.60
(BSP) 1,74 49,76
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 1,74 | Commission (12.07%): ($) 0,21 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 1,53

Composite

15 plays
Profit—-22.14

A little better with the price. Could had 17-1 but had already placed my bet for this study.

Allan

16th play


50 units @BSP on :5: Kellyslittlesecret in Penn National's 1st (2-7-2019)


slow horse is a lose machine for low percentage connections. no figures even remotely coming close to a win at this level. seems likely to lose


Allan

16th play results

07-Feb-19
23:07:37 23:05 Penn National
Kellyslittlesecret - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:153133524243 | Placed: 07-Feb-19 21:39:12 Lay 24.18
(BSP) 2,15 49,84
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 2,15 | Commission (12.09%): ($) 0,26 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 1,89

Composite

16 plays
Profits—-24.03

Allan

17th play

50 units @BSP against :2: Pep the Champ in Tampa’s 1st (2-9-2019)

Slow horse has a lot of negatives. He’s a dirt maiden at 8. No wins last year, has absolutely no speed and has low percentage connections. Hard to find any reason to see him winning this race.

Allan

17th race results

09-Feb-19
17:18:36 17:12 Tampa Bay Downs
Pep The Champ - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:153331166207 | Placed: 09-Feb-19 16:38:47 Lay 130.00
(BSP) 0,38 49,02
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 0,38 | Commission (13.16%): ($) 0,05 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 0,33

Composite

17th plays
Profits—-24.36

Allan

18th play

50@BSP against :6: clouded appeal in Tampa’s 4th (2-10-2019)

Mare has been overraced by low percentage connections. Could be decent but needs some rest. Seems likely to lose.

Allan

18 play results

10-Feb-19
19:23:47 19:10 Tampa Bay Downs
Clouded Appeal - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:153477950616 | Placed: 10-Feb-19 18:57:17 Lay 116.22
(BSP) 0,43 49,54
--
Won
Gross Profit/Loss: ($) 0,43 | Commission (11.63%): ($) 0,05 | Net Profit/Loss: ($) 0,38

Composite

18 plays
Profits—-24.74

Allan

19th play

50 units@25-1 (bet matched) on :3: Thisismystory in Turf paradise 7th (2-11-2019)

Used to have speed but low percentage trainer dulled it by stretching out with this gelding. Could win with another trainer but it an almost certain loser here.

Allan