Race of the Day -- TRACK PHANTOM
 

4/15/16

OP 7th– BACHELOR STAKES 150K, 6F DIRT

6 COUNTERFORCE 2-1
2 I WILL SCORE 5-2
1 WILL MUNNINGS 9-2
7 MORNING FIRE 5-2

PICK: #6 COUNTERFORCE (2-1)
Female tree is impressive. 2nd dam, is a half to Rags to Riches, Jazil and Casino Drive, all superstar deep route types. This one ran too good to lose in his last start. He dueled with other speed, put that away, was game with the winner (who got a perfect trip). 4 next out winners from debut at OP.

VALUE: #1 WILL MUNNINGS (9-2)
Could get the run of the race. He will break inside and has tactical speed. The quicker runners will be head to head and soften each other up some. Broke 1st from the gate in 3 of last 4. Was 2nd to Derby hopeful Whitmore.

A) 2,6
B) 1,7
C) 3,4

4/16/16

KEE 6TH– OPT CLM 62K, 1M DIRT

4 STREET SONG 8-1
5 ESKENFORMONEY 8-5
6 FLEET BERTIE 8-1
3 GENRE 6-1

PICK: #4 STREET SONG (8-1)
She comes out of a sneaky tough race at Tampa. The runner-up in there came back to win a 50k stks at FG over Ahh Chocolate. The 4th place finisher came back to win at opt clm at TAM. 7th ran 2nd by a half to stakes type Pangburn in a 75k stks. Works are eye popping.

VALUE: #6 FLEET BERTIE (8-1)
Woke up nicely at 8-1 in her last start before the layoff. She comes in here with a sharp worktab for a trainer who wins at a very high % with comebackers w/ a large ROI.

A) 4,5
B) 2,3,6
C) 1,8,9

FREE KEE FULL CARD ANALYSIS SHEET AT WEBSITE IN SIGNATURE

4/17/16

KEE RACE 4 -- MSW 60K, 1M TURF (2:45 ET)

8 TWENTY FOUR SEVEN 10-1
11 NANA LOOCH 3-1
2 BLINDSIDED BLUES 12-1
12 GO NAVY GO 12-1

VALUE: #8 TWENTY FOUR SEVEN (10-1)
3rd start for this new gelding. He was in serious traffic when trying to close into a slow pace in the debut (notice recent Ark Derby winner was 2nd). Was bet in 2nd start but was away two lengths slow. Made up late ground for a close 5th. Dam is half to 1997 BC Turf, $3M earner, Chief Bearhart.

VALUE: #2 BLINDSIDED BLUES (12-1)
He has been on the turf twice and in both starts he was off a bit slow and made up a lot of ground in the middle of the race before tiring a bit in the late going. Has a pretty decent turf pedigree with the Chester House influence. Cuts back a bit and draws well on the inside. Maybe for a small share.

A) 8,11
B) 2,4,6,7,12
C) 1,5,9,10

4/20/16 KEE 7TH– ALLW 66K, 1M 1/16 TURF

8 MOJO RISIN 7-2
5 NO FAULT OF MINE 8-1
7 OL’ FASHION GAL 3-1
10 PRETTY FANCY 12-1

PICK: #8 MOJO RISIN (7-2)
Another Chad Brown Euro import with his top call rider, Castellano, up. Together they are 7 for 17 (11 in the money) with Euro shippers. This filly was in the Group 1 Longines. The filly who finished right in front of her, Queen’s Jewell, came back and ran 3rd in the BC F&M Turf behind Stephanie’s Kitten. Sharp works.

VALUE: #5 NO FAULT OF MINE (8-1)
Dam was a stakes placed grass runner. Comes out of a race when 2nd to a 415k, G2 winner. 2nd in the G2 Golden Rod at this distance. Trainer is excellent with turf runners. Big name rider.

A) 5,8
B) 7,10
C) 1,2,6,9

4/22/16 KEE 6th– MSW 60K, 1M 1/16 TURF

2 MANITOULIN 5-1
1 SIR DUDLEY DIGGES 3-1
11 KING’S PLAYER 10-1
7 WAR ORDER 9-2

PICK: #2 MANITOULIN (5-1)
This is the move that the breeding calls for. The dam was a superstar on grass. She moved from the dirt to the turf and promptly went 6 for 7 to finish her career, including win in the BC F & M Turf. Massive rider move and a few very sharp drills for a trainer who is 21% going dirt to turf. Expect a serious move forward.

VALUE: #11 KING’S PLAYER (10-1)
Bred to love the grass and has had legitimate excuses. 1st time gelding should come back more relaxed.

A) 1,2
B) 3,6,7,11
C) 5,10

4/23/16 KEE 5th– MSW 60K, 1M 1/16 TURF

2 PRIVATE CLIENT 10-1
5 CHERUB 9-2
12 TRY YOUR LUCK 5-1
3 TIZTHESOUND 3-1

PICK: #2 PRIVATE CLIENT (10-1)
Proctor knows this female line well. He’s had the dam, many of the sibs and 2nd generation runners. All are turfers led by the sibs of this one, Keertana (millionaire), Diversy Harbor, Snow Top Mountain (both graded stakes on turf. Sire is a grass influencer. Works are very typical for a Proctor 1st timer. He is 2 for last 4 at this distance on turf with a debut runner.

VALUE: #12 TRY YOUR LUCK (5-1)
You can toss her last start as it was on a dirt track and she stumbled badly leaving out of the gate. She ran well in all 3 turf starts prior to it. Lanerie up for a sharp 10-1 3rd two back.

A) 2,5
B) 3,12
C) 6,8,9,10

4/24/16 LRC 5th– OPT CLM 62K, 1M DIRT (3:58)

1 BACKINTHEACADEMY 10-1
2 DIVINA COMEDIA 9-5
5 NITE DELITE 5-2
3 BIG BREAK 4-1

PICK: #1 BACKINTHEACADEMY (10-1)
She may be a tad cheap compared to the rest of these but she won’t get a better pace set-up for her late run. Basically, every other runner wants to be near the front. She’ll be all alone waiting for the pace setters to tire. Finished in front of the mare to her outside two starts back. Notice her last win came a year ago at 23-1 closing from last in a 6 horse field.

VALUE: #3 BIG BREAK (4-1)

A) 1,2
B) 3,5
C) 2,6

4/27/16 KEE 7th– OPT CLM 80K, 6F DIRT (4:24 ET)

3 WAKE UP JOE 12-1
6 NO HIDING PLACE 1-1
1 BREWING 3-1
4 GRANDE BASIN 7-2

PICK: #3 WAKE UP JOE (12-1)
There is speed to the inside and outside in this small field. This one can sit handy right up near the lead or finish late from farther back. He is a new gelding. Race he comes out of was strong, were 3 next out winners (2 stakes). Great HAW drills.

VALUE: #4 GRANDE BASIN (7-2)
3 wins in a row here and 4 of his last 5. He now moves to trainer Dallas Stewart. The race may produce a quick pace. He’ll be coming from far back. La-bred is in great form. Picks up some pieces late.

A) 1,3,6
B) 4,5
C) 2

4/28/16 LRC 7TH– CLM 8K, 5.5F DIRT (4:58 PT)

3 HAWK’S EYES 12-1
7 MR. ITKINS 7-2
9 JOHNS JOURNEY 5-2
2 MATTY’S TRIBAL 5-1

PICK: #3 HAWK’S EYES (12-1)
Expecting to see this one more ahead in his second start off the break. He just ran evenly at 5F in his last start and that came with an apprentice up. He gets a huge rider move to Pereira who was up for the last win. Extra half of a furlong should also come in handy. Pace of this race should be a fast one, setting up late closing kick.

VALUE: #2 MATTY’S TRIBAL (5-1)

A) 3,7,9
B) 2
C) 1,5,8

4/29/16 LRC 8th– MDN CL 30K, 5.5F DIRT (8:28 ET)

4 HOLLYWOOD RIVIERA 8-1
7 QUALITY KAY 3-1
9 EVENING AGAIN 5-2
3 LIL JESSICA 5-1

PICK: #4 HOLLYWOOD RIVIERA (8-1)
Dam was a stakes placed sprinter and 3 sibs are sprinters, as well. This is a 1ster for Rollins. This trainer has had 12 first timers on dirt sprinting. He won with 5 of them (including the only 2 he started here at LRC, both in MSW). Works are on typical side for him. Doesn’t face much.

VALUE: #3 LIL JESSICA (5-1)
If the two top choices, both 1sters, don’t fire, this filly has a chance. Tired setting the pace in last. Might just keep going.

A) 4,7
B) 3,9
C) 2,5,8

4/30/16 LRC 5th– MDN CLM 30K, 5.5F DIRT (6:58 ET)

1 JOHANN’S COMMAND 12-1
10 KEEPING THE FAITH 3-1
3 GONE WITH IT 5-2
5 CALVERT STREET 4-1

PICK: #1 JOHANN’S COMMAND (12-1)
Willing to forgive the route try last out when he couldn’t get the lead and was wide. Race two back was decent. Went blazing fast and tired but 4th and 5th in there won back at md clm 25k and in a MSW (at 17-1) both at GG. Digs in late.

VALUE: #10 KEEPING THE FAITH (3-1)
Think the cutback is the key with this one. He didn’t carry his speed going a route twice but has finished better in 3 sprints when facing better runners.

A) 1,3,10
B) 5,11
C) 2,8

5/1/16 -- LRC RACE 5– MSW 45K, 6F DIRT (3:58 PT)

8 FANTASY OF LUCK 3-1
9 UNUSUALLY TALENTED 7-2
4 ROCKY’S RAINBOW 4-1
7 WARM ENDOWMENT 9-2

PICK: #8 FANTASY OF LUCK (3-1)
Baffert runner cost 180k and went off at less than 2-1 in both starts. She flopped in both. Her strong works and addition of Bejarano indicate we’ll see her best here today. Her 1:10.3Hg work came along w/ Toews On Ice, who won a 100k at CD Sat.

VALUE: #4 ROCKY’S RAINBOW (4-1)
Worth noting that Desormeaux lands on this one despite not riding for Puype all that much. The works are strong for this and the rider upgrade is pretty big. Drew the 9 post in debut, draws better today.

A) 8
B) 4,7,9
C) 3,5,6

5/5/16 SA 6th– MSW 56K, 6F DIRT (4:30 PT)

9 HALEY’S COMMENT 15-1
8 WALTZING 4-1
3 EMMZY 5-2
7 RIZZI’S HONORS 4-1

PICK: #9 HALEY’S COMMENT (15-1)
Mulhall is pretty decent with first timers but most of her wins came in maiden clm company. She did team up with a debut winner for these owners and ridden by Pedroza back in Feb (Indavidualist) who won wire to wire with a 90 Beyer at 4-1. She sports an eye catching 59.3 workout.

OTHER: #8 WALTZING (4-1)
Mandella not overly proficient with first timers dirt sprinting in a MSW (2 for 31). This one will be better on turf but can’t look past the steady stream of lightning fast drills on the main track. Check tote.

A) 8,9
B) 3,4,7
C) 1,5,6,10

KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) $2ML – 1M 1/8 DIRT (5:49 ET)

2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 20-1
17 MOR SPIRT 10-1
10 WHITMORE 20-1
13 NYQUIST 4-1
20 DANZING CANDY 15-1

#2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (20-1)
Closers like this one rarely ever win the Derby outright. Quite often, they make a serious late rally to pick up some pieces without really challenging for the top spot. But, I think this one is different. He has the kind of very late, and I mean in the final 100 yards late, acceleration that is rarely seen by a deep closer in the US. His late run in the Southwest was breathtaking. He was far back with half a furlong to go and he was moving two to their one late. Suffered major trouble in the Rebel 2 back and some traffic and wide in the Ark Derby last out. In both cases, he was taking lengths off of Creator in the final stages. Clockers have him working superbly. The Arkansas pipeline was very tough this year with full, deep fields. He drew the 13 and 14 in back to back races there. There are things to like, including likely 20-1 odds. If the pace percolates, there will be breaking news late.

#1 MOR SPIRIT (10-1)
Baffert and Stevens have won the Derby 7x (once together in '97 with Silver Charm). This runner is very reminiscent of Silver Charm. Both he and Silver Charm came into the Derby off of back to back runner-up finishes in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Watching the replays of his three-year old races, it is quite clear the strategy was to allow Mor Spirit to run just fast enough to earn points for the Derby and save as much horse as they could. He was a 650,000 purchase, quite a lot for a Pa-bred. Baffert himself did the bidding and, reportedly, really wanted him after he flashed a 10.1 furlong as a two-year old in training. He should be in a prime spot early. With the best connections.

#10 WHITMORE (20-1)
As mentioned with Suddenbreakingnews, the Arkansas Derby prep season was the strongest top to bottom anywhere. This one found some serious traffic and difficulties in many of those starts. He did hang a bit in his races but with Espinoza up, he might be sitting closer to the pace and that will be a very good thing. Has always looked like a serious runner. Could be overlooked at 30-1 in here.

#3 NYQUIST (4-1)
Nothing but good things with him, except for maybe the price. He’s undefeated and won the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in superb fashion. He really opened some eyes with that win. He beat 2nd favorite, Exaggerator in the San Vicente. Didn’t think he did much in the Florida Derby but he did take care of business professionally. He should be on every ticket, defensively, at the very least.

A) 2,4,10,11,13,17
B) 3,4,5,9,19
C) 6,14,15

5/8/16 -- SA 8th– CLM 8K, 1M 1/16 DIRT (4:13 PT)

5 BLUEGRASS REWARD 6-1 Bednar
2 CASS IN STONE 5-2 Pereira
4 SENNA 5-2 Baze
3 NO SURRENDER 12-1 Elliott

PICK: #5 BLUEGRASS REWARD (6-1)
Was in too high last out and didn’t help matters when he was wide into the lane. Forget the two races at TUP when with a 9% outfit. This trainer had him four back and he ran huge for 2nd by head after setting the pace. Could go wire to wire here.

OTHER: #3 NO SURRENDER (12-1)
Can completely toss last as there was a spill in the race and this one was forced out badly. Couldn’t make up ground back of a slow pace two back. All 3 wins came on dirt. Playable.

A) 2,4,5
B) 1,3,8
C) 6,7

SANTA ANITA 5/15/16 RACE 1 – MSW 56K, 7F DIRT

1 TRYST 3-5
5 SUGARY 5-1
3 ESCALANTE 6-1
6 EVERLOVIN WOMAN 6-1

PICK: #1 TRYST (3-5)
She ran as if it were a prep for longer in her debut. She didn’t really start to pick up her feet until the winner was home. She was bet down to 2-5 due to the :58.2 work she had prior to the race. Mandella is better with 2nd timers. Dam half to 4 stakes winners. 81 Beyer dwarfs anything from this field so far.

VALUE: #5 SUGARY (5-1)
Jones has a nice ROI with 2nd time starters. This one was 3-1 in the debut but had little chance trying to close into such a slow early pace. The winner went wire to wire. Grade 1 winner, Tiz Flirtatious, is in the female tree.

A) 1
B) 3,5,6
C) 2,4

SANTA ANITA 5/19/16 RACE 1 – MSW 56K, 4.5F DIRT

6 LOFTY CAUSE 4-1
4 BARBARA JO 7-2
9 YOU’RE LATE 7-2
5 FORTHE LOVEOF PATTY 5-1

PICK: #6 LOFTY CAUSE (4-1)
Bet down to 4-5 in the debut but the rail did her no favors. Was off awkwardly and in tight, steadied for much of the stretch (a throw out race). Maldonado picks up the call, apprentice off. This is win early breeding. Dam stakes winning sprinter.

VALUE: #4 BARBARA JO (7-2)
This trainer has won four times with 2YO runners at 4.5 or 5F in the last two years including 2x this year. Maldonado was aboard both wins. Working smartly and gets aggressive gate jock. Expect speed.

A) 4,6,9
B) 3,5
C) 2,7

SANTA ANITA 5/20/16 RACE 2 – MSW 56K, 1M DIRT

4 CRIMSON AND GOLD 4-1
2 SHAZARA 5-2
5 CARADINI 5-2
6 THAT’S A LADY 2-1

PICK: #4 CRIMSON AND GOLD (4-1)
Forget her last on the off-track, routing where they were aiming. Owner had the G1 dam, 2nd dam, both won their money going long. Debut was excellent since this trainer rarely wins sprinting 1st time out. Serious move to go back to Smith.

VALUE: #2 SHAZARA (5-2)
Third in both start and both were not the best trips. Off slow, steadied in debut and very wide in her last start. Bred for the route. Winner in last came back to run 2nd a neck in an alw at CD last week.

A) 2,4
B) 5
C) 6

Full card for Pimlico, Santa Anita and Canterbury at the link in signature

SANTA ANITA 5/21/16 RACE 1 – MSW 56K, 4.5F DIRT

4 LA PREMEIERE ETOILE 12-1
8 ALL THAT HEAT 5-2
6 WARM ENDOWMENT 7-2
3 HIJIKI 4-1

PICK: #4 LA PREMEIRE (12-1)
Tough to know if she has any talent after that debut but have to cut her a bit of slack. She chased a freak who won by 16, 99 Beyer. She tired from the early efforts and came to a walk. Dam Group 2 turf placed in Europe. Sib 4 for 19, 171k on turf.

VALUE: #6 WARM ENDOW (7-2)
Good 2nd in her debut but she was a bit one-paced in her 2nd out. The winner drew off and 2nd was far off of 3rd. Bred top to bottom for grass and comes in with a bullet work in :46.2 here. Looks live on the turf.

A) 4,6,8
B) 3
C) 1,2

SA 5/22/16 - 5th–MDN CLM 50K, 6F DIRT

4 REE O KERR 3-1
6 ARCH KISSER 8-1
7 PHANTOM HEAT 20-1
1 RED CAR MAC 6-1

PICK: #4 REE O KERR (3-1)
Not many 12 horse maiden races at LRC but this one drew the 12 post in there and went up with a fast early pace and paid a price. Big rider move to Maldonado who is 23% for Bonde. Top 3 two back ran 1,2,2, next starts. Best speed. Goes all the way.

VALUE: #7 PHANTOM HEAT (20-1)
Mismanaged animal trained by a guy that has little clue. However, this gelding has a few races that would win this. Last time he was at 50k for Cal-breds, he was beaten just a neck at 19-1. Finally at right level. Don’t be surprised when he hits the board.

A) 4,6
B) 1,7
C) 5,8,9

SA 5/26/16 - 1st – MSW 56K, 4.5F DIRT

3 THEONEWEWAITEDFOR 2-1
2 DIAMONDINTHECENTER 5-2
5 WILD CAUSE 3-1
1 YOU MISSED IT 4-1

PICK: #3 THEONEWEWAITEDFOR (2-1)
Harrington, who is 17% with these 4.5F 1st timers, trained the dam and sire, both G1 type. Dam won her debut. Sire a G1 winner at 2. Good worktab for this and has his go-to rider (won last two 2YO MSW for him).

VALUE: #5 WILD CAUSE (3-1)
Was green in the early going. She got near the heels of others, steadied and dropped far back. She got her act together and was strong late for 3rd. Another by the superb 2YO star, Creative Cause. Big rider move to Bejarano. Nice drills. Expecting better.

A) 2,3
B) 1,5
C) 4,6

SA 5/27/16 - 2nd – CLM 20K, 6F DIRT

5 NICARADALIC ROCKS 4-1
4 SUAVEMENTE 5-2
2 LAST ONE STANDING 7-2
6 SECRET ROOM 2-1

PICK: #5 NICARADALIC ROCKS (4-1)
Much confirmed speed and runner on the rail getting blinkers, it should be fast and contested, and set up for closer. This one will be closing from farthest back. Clocker report high on the 5/21 work. Kent superb with deep closers making an early move.

VALUE: #4 SUAVEMENTE (5-2)
Only one poor race and it was so bad, two back, that it can’t be considered. Was in a difficult chase mode behind even money Diodoro favorite who returned to win 40k in his next start. Should sit a good journey.

A) 4,5
B) 2,6
C) 1,3

SA 5/28 -- 1st–LYNFR 100K, 6.5F TURF

3 AMBITIOUS BREW 7-5
1 FOREST CHATTER 6-5
2 PAY THE FINE 9-2
5 K THIRTY EIGHT 6-1

PICK: #3 AMBITIOUS BREW (7-5)
Was sent off as the 8-5 second choice in the 100k last time out but he bled and was vanned off. Clockers indicate he is working superbly in the morning. Was 5 for 6 in the exacta at this 6.5F distance before last. Expecting a fast early pace which will set it up for him.

VALUE: #2 PAY THE FINE (9-2)
Has a good record at the distance and is coming in off a big effort when 2nd at LRC. He was 2 behind Forest Chatter two back in the Sensational Star. Will have little trouble getting into the tri.

A) 1,3
B) 2
C) 5

SA 5/29/16 - 3rd – OP CLM 75K, 1M 1/16 DIRT

2 RARE CANDY 4-5
5 CURLIN RULES 5-2
4 PRINCE OF ARABIA 6-1
1 DALMORE 7-2

PICK: #2 RARE CANDY (4-5)
Really put in a good effort when 2nd to the Triple Crown runner, Uncle Lino, who was the pace setter in the Preakness. Clocker reports say he really looked great in that 59 bullet work. Trainer Hofmans started meet with 2 wins already. He looks tough.

VALUE: #4 PRINCE OF ARABIA (6-1)
Cassidy runners typically get better with a bit of racing and this one is no different. Winner two back may go in the Belmont in 2 weeks. Has a decent set of drills coming in. Slow work indicates he’s ready. Use.

A) 2
B) 4,5
C) 1,3

SA 5/30/16 - 1st – MSW 56K, 5.5F DIRT

7 MAI TAI 3-1
5 MALWARE 6-5
4 PLANE LUCKY 2-1
6 SWISS BREEZE 12-1

PICK: #7 MAI TAI (3-1)
Took a lot of action in the debut and actually ran quite well for 2nd to comeback 200k Melair stakes winner, Enola Gray. Homebred is working nicely for her comeback and picks up Castellano for this. She’ll be flying into this very late.

VALUE: #6 SWISS BREEZE (12-1)
Trainer doesn’t win often with 1st timers and this one is probably a better play underneath. She does have a big win early pedigree and works are decent. Sib won 124k

A) 4,5,7
B)
C) 3,6

SA 6/3/16 - 1st – MDN CLM 75K, 1M DIRT

5 BEDEVILED 4-1
7 LATEST CRAZE 5-2
1 BEAUMARCHAIS 7-2
3 OSO 9-2

PICK: #5 BEDEVILED (4-1)
Really didn’t run badly in the route MSW in last start. That race was loaded and is going to come back strong (this is the 1st runner to come out of it). Lots of speed in this race and he’ll likely watch the speed duel up front. 65k purchase, well-placed.

VALUE: #3 OSO (9-2)
Street Sense colt is one of the few in the race that is bred to route. Garcia was up three back when he ran 3rd at 3-1 in MSW company. Blinkers go on today. Takes a needed class drop for this. Should be in a good spot in the early part of this race.

A) 5
B) 1,3,7
C) 2

1st-MD CL 20K, 5.5F DIRT

4 TURF CLUB QUEEN 4-1
5 WARREN’S HONEY BEE 3-1
7 FIFTYPRECENTCOTTON 5-1
3 WONDROUS CAT 5-2

PICK: #4 TURF CLUB QU (4-1)
No tricky angles here. This 6YO has been getting better each start. The blinkers were added in last and it helped produced a big effort. 3rd in there won back at 15-1 vs mdn clm 30k types. This rider has been very good at the meet. Solid price here.

VALUE: #7 FIFTYPERCEN (5-1)
Exits the same race as the top pick and she was off slow for the 2nd in a row. She did make up a bit to split that field. Blinkers go on and a new rider takes the call. She worked 2x since that last race. Would expect her to be closer to the pace in here.

A) 4,5,7
B) 3
C) 6,8

SA 6/5/16 - 1st – SIREN LURE 75K, 6.5F TURF

1 HUNT 9-5
5 ACT 5-2
3 TOOWINDYTOHAULROX 5-2
2 MISS DOUBLE D’ORO 7-2

PICK: #1 HUNT (9-5)
No speed in here and this one has been closest to the early pace. With the rail draw, they will go out with a clean break. Won 3 of his last 4, all at this distance. No disgrace in 3rd to Guns Loaded or Rocket Heat, both won G3 turf sprints after. A race flow edge.

VALUE: #5 ACT (5-2)
Only runner who has actually set the pace in any of his races. Comes out of a good 3rd at CD in a 5F sprint. Did well to close into slow early fractions. 4th place finisher was 3rd in the 100k Paradise Creek at BEL at 20-1 next.

A) 1
B) 3,5
C) 2

SA 6/9/16 - 1st – MDN CLM 30K, 1M 1/16 DIRT

3 MONEY MAKIN MIKE 5-2
4 GOLDRUSHER 3-1
7 MIMIS BIG BOY 5-1
1 BLYDE RIVER 8-1

PICK: #3 MONEY MAKIN MIKE (5-2)
O’Neill made this move just once before. He brought back Navy Hymn off a long layoff at mdn 30k (dropped from mdn 62k where he had run 2nd). He had Bejarano on and won it easily. Solid works and blinkers added. He’s a logical player but clearly are some issues.

VALUE: #7 MIMIS BIG BOY (5-1)
Ran 4th in a key race at GG two back. Top 4 finishers all came back to win. Might want the added ground and he’ll get a weight alw here with the apprentice rider. Sharp drill over training track. Gets a look going long.

A) 3
B) 1,4,7
C) 2,5,6

Belmont, Santa Anita, Canterbury Full Card Analysis Sheets at link in signature below

SA 6/11/16 RACE 6 – MD CLM 50K, 6F DIRT

1 WORLDWIDE 5-2
8 SKOOKUM SPIRIT 4-1
6 LOOK ME IN THE E 7-2
10 RICKLES 15-1

PICK: #1 WORLDWIDE (5-2)
This is really where Ellis does his best as a trainer. He likes to work horses into form and they peak 3rd start off a layoff. Tough loss in last as the even money favorite. Has a sharp 5F move 9 days ago. Looks like he’s overdue.

VALUE: #8 SKOOKUM SPIR (4-1)
Not sure there is much turf pedigree here so it’s not surprising he did not care for it. He set the pace going long in last and now cuts back. Effort when 2nd three back was superb. He was off slow two back. Sitting on a big race.

A) 1,6,8
B)
C) 3,5,9,10

6/16/16 SA RACE 1 – MSW 56K, 5F DIRT

5 STORMY ENDEAVOR 3-1
7 OCEAN DREAM 4-1
6 MS WAKAYA 8-1
3 R SUNDAY SURPRISE 5-2

PICK: 5 STORMY ENDEAVOR (3-1)
Broke 1st in debut at 40-1 and ended up being very game for 2nd. Winner assumed command and went wire to wire for Sherlock. Moger is 1 for 17 with 2YO 1strs so you know she’ll improve. Received high comments from clockers for the June 10th work.

VALUE: 6 MS WAKAYA (8-1)
Dam broke her maiden in 2nd start, a stakes at Del, and was in the ’09 BC Juv Fillies. Trainer/owner 18% (2 for 11) with debut 2YO’s. Usually works slow. Two quick moves for this one.

A) 5,6,7
B) 2,3
C) 4,8

6/17/16 SA R1 – MSW 56K, 6F DIRT (1:30 PT)

1 SEASIDE GLORY 5-2
5 TANDORA 7-2
4 TRYST 6-5
3 LITTLE DUME 5-1

PICK: 1 SEASIDE GLORY (5-2)
Hollendorfer filly is making her 3YO debut in here after two mediocre starts as a 2YO at Del Mar. She broke a step slow last out and was shuffled back on the rail for a lot of the running. Finished w/ interest for 4th. Clockers say she is working like a monster. A strong finish with Garcia up in last work.

VALUE: 5 TANDORA (7-2)
Trainer D’Amato is 6 for 22 (27%) with 11 in the money (50%) with a debut 3YO+ in a MSW on dirt sprinting. Last time T Baze rode a first timer for D’Amato, he won by 16 lengths with a 99 Beyer (Enola Gray). Clockers high on her morning activity. Her dam was a multiple G3 sprinting winner.

A) 1,5
B) 4
C) 2,3

Full card analysis for Santa Anita, Canterbury and the Top 8 Best Bets of the Day can be found at the website in the signature

6/18/16 SA R1 – MDN CLM 75K, 1M TURF (1:30)

7 BEDEVILED 9-2
9 DREAMY MARTINI 5-1
5 TIZZING 6-1
2 RUN THE SHOW 6-1

PICK: 7 BEDEVILED (9-2)
Coming out of some very strong races. 3rd in last in a strong MSW. The winner is a Baffert runner who earned a 96 Beyer in that win. 4th was the Zenyatta offspring, Ziconic. Sib to 572k winner, Wicked Style (won 2 of 6 on turf for 71k). Should enjoy move to the lawn. Back to Desormeaux.

VALUE: 9 DREAMY MARTINI (5-1)
Has a lot of turf in the pedigree. Deep in the female tree is the great turf runner, El Gran Senor (won 7 of 8 on the grass in his career). Good 2nd two back at 17-1. He drew outside post in last and was wide.

A) 7,9
B) 2,5,8
C) 1,3,4,6

6/19/16 SA R3 – OPT CLM 75K, 1M TURF (1:00 PT)

4 LONG HOT SUMMER 5-2
8 SINGING KITTY 3-1
1 GRANDMA’S HANDS 8-1
2 FASNALOICH 8-1

PICK: 4 LONG HOT SUMMER (5-2)
She hasn’t run a bad race on the turf but the question is if she is better at 6.5F vs this mile or longer. She was caught late in both mile efforts. She looks like she’ll be the controlling speed which could be an equalizer if the mile isn’t desired. Her dam won grass stakes going up to a mile but was best middle sprinting. She beat male runners last out. Holds a pace edge.

VALUE: 1 GRANDMA’S HANDS (8-1)
She was clearly best in last if not for just an awful trip. Once she got clear, she was finishing two to their one and lost a very tough photo. That was a soft field vs this group. Big rider change. 3 sharp works.

A) 4,8
B) 1,2,3
C) 5,6,7

6/23/16 SA R1 – MDN CLM 20K, 1M 1/16 DIRT

6 MONEY MAKIN MIKE 5-2
4 BIG DISCOVERY 3-1
5 ALSTON 3-1
3 VIEWFROMTHEPULPIT 15-1

PICK: 6 MONEY MAKIN MIKE (5-2)
Some will be put off by the good effort in his last, layoff and drop. It might not be a good sign but worth noting that O’Neill is 56% (5 for 9) with long layoffs, coming back bottom maiden clm. That includes Navy Hymn (claimed 4x, won 5 straight). He was a vet scratch for 30k on June 9th.

VALUE: 4 BIG DISCOVERY (3-1)
Was reclaim by Yakteen, who hasn’t had a reclaim in the last 5 years. Note the low percentage trainer took the blinkers off when taken from Yakteen and Yakteen puts them back on. Bejarano been up for 5 starts on him, 3 in the money. Late run.

A) 6
B) 4,5
C) 1,2,3,7

1 – MDN CLM 20K, 1M 1/16 DIRT

6 AIDAN’S HOPE 6-5
4 DUPREE’S DIAMOND 6-1
2 ONE FOR MY BABY 4-1
5 LUCKY DOUBLE 15-1

PICK: 6 AIDAN’S HOPE (6-5)
Was very unlucky to lose in his last start when 26-1. Did the dirty work pressing a fast early pace with the runner who ran 3rd (the fav). Very game, just outfinished. The race is turning out to be strong. 4th won easily at OTP next. 6th ran 2nd at SA at this level. Massive rider move to Baze.

VALUE: 4 DUPREE’S DIAMOND (6-1)
Could be an interesting longshot player in here. The trainer had one just one 1st timer ridden by this rider. It came with a Cal-bred at mdn 50k last year and that runner won by 5. Been working a long time. Doesn’t have to be too much here.

A) 4,6
B) 2,5
C) 3,7

6/25/16 SA R3 – STR ALLW 40K, 6F DIRT

5 BASINCA 7-2
3 PETE’S PLAY CALL 3-1
1 CONCORD’S STAR 5-2
8 SCHILLAIRESS 6-1

PICK: 5 BASINCA (7-2)
Ran 2nd to Navy Hymn last time out. That one has since come back to just crush an opt 75k field for 5 wins in a row. He was well clear of third in that one. Runner-up two back won the 70k Desert Code in his next start. He’s been gelded since his last start. Should get a great trip in this spot.

VALUE: 8 SCHILLAIRESS (6-1)
No telling how good this one is. He won in his debut, for fun, at 4.5 furlongs. His comeback was a pop and stop on the turf last out, while drifting. Blinkers come off and a move back to the dirt. Bullet move 9 days ago. Too soon to give up on him.

A) 1,3,5
B) 4,8
C) 2,6,7

6/26/16 SA R3 – MDN CLM 50K, 4.5F DIRT (2:29 PT)

3 SO HERES THE THING 5-2
4 CHOCOLATE GODDESS 4-1
6 KIMCHEE 2-1
1 IT’S NOT SO EASY 7-2

PICK: 3 SO HERES THE THING (5-2)
Has had some excuses in her two starts. Rider lost the whip in the debut and she was off slow in last. The winner got away from them in last but she was picking off the also-rans. Just a 7500 purchase last year, so the move to 50k is acceptable. Dam won nearly 200k, mostly sprinting.

VALUE: 4 CHOCOLATE GODDESS (4-1)
Other Rollins runner also drops in from a MSW race. She gets first time Lasix and blinkers on. 2nd and 3rd from her debut race both came back to win MSW races in their next starts. She might have been outworked by the top choice on June 7th.

A) 3
B) 4,6
C) 1,2,5

SA 6/30/16 R1 – OPT CLM 20K, 6.5F DIRT (1:30 PT)

3 PULMARACK 5-2
1 ATTA BOY PETE 4-5
2 EIGHT SPOKES 3-1
4 SCATASTIC 12-1

PICK: 3 PULMARACK (5-2)
Hollendorfer runner cut back in distance in last and ran well for 3rd at 8-1. His win came on this track back in 2014. He was nibbling in stakes company last year and is a bit overdue to break through. He’ll be the fastest finisher here. Move to the dirt is good. His big late run gets up late.

VALUE: 2 EIGHT SPOKES (3-1)
Projects a good trip in behind the speed in here. Was in the same race as the top choice two back and was far behind that one. Won at this distance four starts ago. Nice works at LRC since his last time out.

A) 1,2,3
B)
C) 4,5