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10-11-2017 09:50 AM |
Delaware 10/11-Class Hcp Method
Race 5- Del-5.5 f.-4000 n1y-Purse 10k-10/11/17
Using Class Hcp method: Eliminate the 1, 3, 4, 10, & 11 for recency. Elim. 1 for form for starters.
:1a: Synchronous 3-1 ML 30% - 6194 (3-1) 4 pts.- Qual 2nd - 6 bl’s @ 8000
:2: Carolina Speed 4-1 ML 44% - 4189 (2-2) 4 pts.-Qual ?? 8th-31 bls’ on turf. 2LR > 5 mos.
:5: Mr. Game Seven 5-1ML 10% - 3419 (6-3) 9 pts.-Qual. 3rd - 1 bl. @ 4000
:6: Oxford Street 10-1 ML 25% - 1193 (4-5) 9 pts.-Qual 2nd -4.5 bl’s @ 5000b
:7: Portent 8-1 ML 42% -4015 (2-2) 4 pts.-Qual 4th-6 bl’s @ 8000
:8: Faithful Servant 15-1 ML 16% - 840 (5-6) 11 pts. -Qual 4th-4.75 bl’s @ 4000
:9: Nico’s Prize 6-1 ML 50% - 2700 (1-4) 5 pts. - Qual 2nd - hd @ 4000
So we have three horses tied at 4 points with a 4th horse close behind at 5 pts. I so want to put a NQ next to :2: Carolina Speed since his last race was dismal on the turf, and we have to go back over 5 months to get a qualified race on dirt. However, his huge drop looks formidable. So I get :2: Carolina Speed first for now; :7: Portent, :1a: Synchronous, & :9: Nico’s Prize.
I said in the Hcp Method thread I give “little” consideration to speed. But when three horses are tied with the same numbers, I do two things to break ties. List the last two speed ratings(same dist) and /or look at EPS for this year only. In both cases the :2: wins in both categories. The :1a: is competitive with :2: for SR’s and the :7: beats the :1a: for EPS this year only.
For Races 1 & 2 at Delaware, see Handicapping Thread.
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