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- Selections (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=4)

- - formula's win bets (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=147808)

formula_2002

11-12-2018 04:31 PM

Code:

"Del Mar Race 3 Post 4:30 MTP 1 $1 Exacta Pool $70,401" SEE BOX TO RIGHT FOR PLAY ANALYSIS. EXACTA BET SIZES FOR THE PLAYS ARE WITHIN THE MATRIX, WIN BET IS THE PGNO LINE TOTAL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL 1 47 6 5 8 20 25 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 130.93 pgno bet size 2 59 16 16 24 61 74 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 310.87 2 "LAY THIS HORSE" 3 5 12 1 2 5 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36.52 7 ALL/PGNO EXACTA 4 5 11 1 2 5 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35.19 6 WIN AND ALL/PGNO EXACTA 5 7 17 2 2 7 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52.43 6 21 49 6 6 8 26 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 135.49 7 26 61 7 7 10 26 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 163.47 8 20 49 6 5 8 21 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 135.09 9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 142.60 245.19 43.89 42.35 62.10 146.75 170.73 146.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1000.00

formula_2002

11-13-2018 09:20 AM

Code:

"UK Lingfield Race 4 Post 9:19 MTP 2 $1 Exacta Pool $1,262" SEE BOX TO RIGHT FOR PLAY ANALYSIS. EXACTA BET SIZES FOR THE PLAYS ARE WITHIN THE MATRIX, WIN BET IS THE PGNO LINE TOTAL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL 1 16 40 29 34 18 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 145.72 pgno bet size 2 15 24 17 20 11 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 91.58 3 "LAY THIS HORSE" 3 44 28 53 61 33 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 233.62 5 ALL/PGNO EXACTA 4 30 19 49 41 23 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 172.79 4 WIN AND ALL/PGNO EXACTA 5 36 23 58 43 27 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 198.53 6 18 11 28 21 24 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 108.29 7 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 8 8 5 12 9 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 49.47 9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 150.93 101.24 210.60 172.35 190.31 117.48 0.00 57.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1000.00

formula_2002

11-13-2018 09:47 AM

uk Lingfield race 4 11-13-2018

that worked out well
betfair largest lay pool would require a $1 win return of $2.81
the horse went off at $2.20.
I estimate I would collect on a lay bet 80% on the time, my advantage, without adjusting for the various final odds would be 1.25 time the final odds.
2.20x 1.25 = $2.75m my maximum payout to break even:faint:

I need to add 1 additional column to the matrix information, that would be, how much to bet on all the horses other than the top pick

in this case the #1 horse won. my return would be $1.35, exceeding my required minimum return:jump:

the 1/5 exacta won, paying $27.60 on the dollar, my return would be $3.66.

not certain what my min $1 return for this play is just yet. have not reviewed but 22 races, 11 of which won.. that seems like too high a success rate.

formula_2002

11-13-2018 03:23 PM

Code:

"Zia Park Race 4 Post 3:22 MTP 1 $1 Exacta Pool $3,918" SEE BOX TO RIGHT FOR PLAY ANALYSIS. EXACTA BET SIZES FOR THE PLAYS ARE WITHIN THE MATRIX, WIN BET IS THE PGNO LINE TOTAL c37 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL 0.118 1 23 23 7 19 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 117.77 pgno bet size 0.170 2 24 35 11 29 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 170.33 6 "LAY THIS HORSE" 0.169 3 24 35 11 28 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 168.64 2 ALL/PGNO EXACTA 0.053 4 7 9 9 8 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52.55 3 WIN AND ALL/PGNO EXACTA 0.139 5 19 27 27 8 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 138.88 0.352 6 64 92 92 29 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 351.84 0.000 7 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 8 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 1.00 137.52 186.66 185.22 65.47 158.31 266.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1000.00

formula_2002

11-13-2018 06:57 PM

Code:

"Dover Downs Race 8 Post 6:54 MTP 0 $2 Exacta Pool $655" SEE BOX TO RIGHT FOR PLAY ANALYSIS. EXACTA BET SIZES FOR THE PLAYS ARE WITHIN THE MATRIX, WIN BET IS THE PGNO LINE TOTAL c37 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL 0.035 1 7 12 7 7 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34.83 pgno bet size 0.190 2 8 76 44 47 6 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 189.77 3 "LAY THIS HORSE" 0.326 3 17 92 91 97 13 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 326.23 5 ALL/PGNO EXACTA 0.187 4 8 44 75 46 6 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 186.92 2 WIN AND ALL/PGNO EXACTA 0.200 5 9 48 82 47 7 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200.43 0.026 6 1 5 9 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26.30 0.036 7 1 7 12 7 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35.54 0.000 8 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 1.00 43.98 202.04 265.78 199.82 210.09 33.45 44.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1000.00

formula_2002

11-14-2018 05:01 PM

Code:

"Churchill Downs Race 9 Post 5:00 MTP 1 $2 Exacta Pool $43,809" SEE BOX TO RIGHT FOR PLAY ANALYSIS. EXACTA BET SIZES FOR THE PLAYS ARE WITHIN THE MATRIX, WIN BET IS THE PGNO LINE TOTAL c37 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL 0.000 1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 pgno bet size 0.000 2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 3 LAY THIS HORSE 0.279 3 0 0 0 32 104 8 50 21 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 278.66 6 pgno/all 0.000 4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 10 bet pgno to win 0.083 5 0 0 25 0 24 2 12 5 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 82.86 0.269 6 0 0 102 0 30 8 47 20 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 268.62 0.022 7 0 0 6 0 2 6 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 21.56 0.129 8 0 0 41 0 12 40 3 8 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 129.29 0.053 9 0 0 16 0 5 15 1 7 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 53.44 0.166 10 0 0 55 0 16 53 4 26 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 165.57 0.000 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 0.000 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 246.07 0.00 97.69 242.31 26.89 144.92 64.81 177.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1000.00

formula_2002

11-14-2018 05:13 PM

IN THE ABOVE RACE THE $1, 5/9 EXACTA RETURNED $146.80
THE LAY HORSE DID NOT WIN.
DELETEING THE LAY HORSE FROM TEH EXACTA MATRIX, A TOTAL BET OF $475 RETURNED $708

formula_2002

11-14-2018 06:49 PM

1 Attachment(s)

WOTB R1, LAY #7

formula_2002

11-14-2018 06:54 PM

1 Attachment(s)

DD R2 LAY 6

formula_2002

11-14-2018 08:17 PM

1 Attachment(s)

dd r5 lay 5

formula_2002

11-14-2018 08:36 PM

1 Attachment(s)

lay 4

formula_2002

11-14-2018 08:44 PM

1 Attachment(s)

lay 1

formula_2002

11-15-2018 09:46 AM

1 Attachment(s)

lay 10

formula_2002

11-15-2018 10:52 AM

1 Attachment(s)

lay 7

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