Kassa's Korner (9/21 PRX PA-Derby day)
 

full-card?

Got the PPs,

looks like a good card. Full fields. Lot's of races on the main track... :coffee:

Thought I'd open a 'Kassa's Korner' thread to jot down some plays/opinions.

Feel free to participate :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

where is the money??
 

RACE1

:3: BOOM BOOM GIRL ... Her debut at Parx was solid, and Ortiz is up. She can certainly win, but her pretty form, and jockey/trainer, ml-odds project her to be an underlay. Just a 'touch slow to respond, chased in a forward-friendly flow, while never looking the winner.

:2: PROJECT WHISKEY ... Also a nice horse with solid fundamentals... Had to be more aggressive in 2nd start, contended for win in a reasonably tough pace scenario. Looked to be a winner or in win-contention much of the race. Took money last. She's back to Parx now after her first two career races at the Spa... Two sharp drills showing... Reasonable to think she may be a bit flashier here today.

Although I prefer the :2: PROJECT WHISKEY to the :3:, and there are some interesting non-favorites, the money on the :3::2: looks to be reasonably strong and rational. Not a ton of obvious value in the win/multi slot.

where is the money??
 

RACE2

:3: GET SET is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, yet is not a top contender.


With the false favorite, this race has potential for some value. There are several well-meant first-time starters, and a couple of solid outfits regrouping in their 2nd-lifetime-start. Looks like a possible opportunity.

Race #6: The Alphabet Soup


:6: Pumpkin Rumble ML favorite and is deserving of this. But is not a strong favorite. Most of the form is on synthetic and at longer distances. Lot of speed signed on here and that helps the cause. I think will get to close to a hot pace and is worth taking a shot against.

:8: Sweet Bye and Bye Second ML favorite has a shot here, but has to do something I do not see in the form. That is win a route from off the pace. Has some races that figure here but will use in a backup roll.

:1: Taxable Goods Is playable at 12/1. Can sit behind the pace and wait for the meltdown. Worth a bet.

:7: Brevard Place Race sets up for a closer, and this one fits the bill. Pace dependent type that gets that help. All his best races and figures have come when the pace gets hot. At 20/1 is a solid play.

These are some good betting races.

Although I know the circuit somewhat, and play occasionally at Parx, I've never been as familiar with the track as some others (and certainly not their lightly used turf course).

Even on the main track, whether it's the actual configuration or the camera angle,... it just 'looks' unique,... and then it's notorious (accurate lately, or not) for having days when the rail is dead...

where is the money??
 

RACE3

:8: BUY LAND AND SEA, and :3: CROI MOR figure to take money, and are logical.

While I'm not crazy about the :6: QUICK ENOUGH, the money on the :8::3: should be rational.

This is Race #5, not #6.

where is the money??
 

RACE4

:2:#2BLUE_EYED_GIRL is 7/5 on the ml. She is a good racehorse. Can be a bit 'keen' on the backstretch to take command prematurely. At the ml price she is an underlay.

However, the :5: #5MALIBU_MISCHIEF is likely to share favoritism. #5MM may be an overlay in early multis, such as the Pick-4 from r1 or PK-3 from r2... If the morning-line prices do somehow hold, she's a slight overlay. Asmussen claimed this one and went up in class, and she took money and won w/ a claim to the Jason Servis barn.

While #2BEG's style begs for a pace confrontation, and a case could be made for stalkers like :7:#7RUMOUR_RIDGE or :9: #9EXCESS_CAPACITY... I'm not overzealous to oppose the money in race 4, with 'solid' favs...

-be sure to check this race for scratches on raceday

where is the money??
 

I like your 1,7... 2 looks tough as well... 3,5,9,10 all hope for a trip...


RACE5

:6:#6PUMPKIN_RUMBLE is 5/2 on the ml. This 8yo warrior is likely to contend, but I do not feel that he is a huge standout.

This race appears to require some coverage.

:8: #8SWEET_BYE_AND_BYE is the 'logical alternative', but is also likely to take money. She should be a slight underlay, primarily because of having raced within favorable flows of late.

She is also solid, but this race may require a 'reach'. Eliminate a couple of these with no chance and hope to net a price, or pass.

where is the money??
 

RACE6

the Sixth Race


tough for me, as "Dove" Houghton has an un-coupled trio of contenders...

some potential to dig deep here, but a pass for me on the surface

where is the money??
 

the Seventh Race

Turf sprints are not in my circle of competence.


:1::1a: #1and1aEntry looks formidable, and largely because of the #1AGOLDWOOD .

Price is a bit of an underlay.

Could treat as a 'spread race'... tough race for me

where is the money??
 

the Eighth Race


:6:#6COAL_FRONT is the 1/1 morning line favorite.

I slightly prefer :4: #4MONONGAHELA ... if the odds discrepancy is as big as the morning line, there is some value with the #4, but as a 'block' of money, the favorites are strong in race eight.

where is the money??
 

the Ninth race


#s769KING_JACK__LANDESKOG__BULLETIN look to be a strong block of favorites... There is always the possibility of a 'pace collapse' when this many early-pace types clash...

On the surface it looks to be chalky, with the 'class' of the favorites shining through to win with a good pace.

--Mildly interesting that #money Mike Smith opts for the 9..

where is the money??
 

the Tenth Race

Nice edition of the Cotillion Stakes.

:8:#8GUARANA will be favored. I thought her CCAOAKS finish was questionable, after what appeared to be a good trip. I do expect her to regroup and be in top condition. She's the most likely winner in this race, but she needs a strong performance to win my full confidence.
:1:#1SERENGETI_EMPRESS is always a pace presence and ran surprisingly well last time.
:11:#11JAYWALK is dangerous.

The favorites in this race figure to be strong, but it is an interesting race.

where is the money??
 

the Eleventh Race

PA Derby

:2:#2IMPROBABLE is perhaps the strongest favorite on the card.