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-   -   Top Horse Analytics: 01/20/2019 Free Pick of Day (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=149948)

Augenj 01-20-2019 06:20 AM

Top Horse Analytics: 01/20/2019 Free Pick of Day
 
The THA Free Pick race has the highest morning line odds on the THA card and now displays profit statistics on the top rated horse line.

THA Statistics 101: The higher the number of occurrences, the more reliable the profit statistic. Also, "Correlation does not imply causation" (e.g. ensure that the stat "makes sense" to your handicapping wisdom).

Click the link below and select the Top Horse Analytics link(s) if present.
http://www.equibase.com/products/freepicks2.cfm

To reiterate, after scratches, the profit statistics are ONLY valid when they're on the top rated horse line and ONLY valid for the track in the link.

Augenj 01-20-2019 11:40 AM

Revision:

THA Statistics 101:
These are cumputer correlations of racing conditions for the top rated horse at this track. While accurate, the correlations may also be reflective of an unidentified and underlying condition which might boost ROI and profit. High payoffs will also distort both profit and ROI statistics and may be unrelated to the correlated condition. (e.g. "Correlation does not imply causation.") So when presented with a high profit/ROI line, consider the number of occurrences and win percent before betting. This will help mitigate these issues.


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