TWO DOLLAR BETTOR
 

$2 a race best value

I'm looking at races ≥ $30,000 Purse

No state breds unless they are 30K fields in open-company.

Woodbine 3
$2 win :2:

just realized that Da Silva is 8 or 9/1
anytime you see that with a horse with 4 legs, probably good try a gimmick.

second best on a $9.30 horse. Lost to the $3.40 chalk in a race where the pace lasted until deep stretch. Both horses moved in tandem, driven through the wire.

(-$2)

Belmont race 3

$2 cold exacta :4: w/ :3:


Vision Perfect (3) comes out of a race where he made a subtle move to get into striking range behind a strong controlling chalk.
Today he potentially makes that move to tackle the pace (1), a horse who has been becoming a 'victim' in the stretch.
(4) Trombelaine is currently 1/5 for Chad Brown, and is likely a higher quality than these.
(7) Dowse's Beach is a cool horse, we've all followed with Cristophe Clement, and has been claimed by high% trainer Brad Cox for 62K last time. Figures to take money, but Cox will have to find a way to improve this horse in order to contend. Certainly the main exacta spoiler threat.

Great job by Brad Cox to improve Dowse's Beach(7).
Dowse's beach took the initiative from the pace setter (1), then opened up and lead the field into the lane and gamely ran on.
Vision Perfect(3) sat in striking range behind Dowse's Beach, and finished well.
(4) Trombelaine had a big turn of foot late to get the place.

(-$4)

Churchill R6

$1 exacta :2::3: w/ :1:

This could turn out to be a very weak field.
:1:Bowman West for rejuvinated Jack Van Berg, made a decent move to break maiden vs a controlling chalk that didn't quit last time. Poor speed figures help price.

Made no impact, finished far back, distanced from field.

You don't have to hit those very often to make a profit, but you'd like to see your selections contend. With the benefit of hindsight, the 1 would have been poor value as $1,000 exacta.

(-$6)

Belmont race 6

$2 Exacta :5: w/ :1:

5-1 exacta returns $17

(+9)

Race 7 Belmont
$2 win on :4:

stopped after setting a hot pace

(+7)

monday

Parx 3 40k purse turf sprint.

Parx 5 46k MSW

Finger Lakes 7 50k stakes

Delaware 3 34k MSW

Delaware 6 34k MSW

Delaware 9 36k allowance

Parx r3

$1 Double :4: :7: w/ :5:


(+5)

Parx r5

$2 Win :7:

(+3)

qualifying races
 

Tuesday

Parx r7 50k

Parx r7
 

when you only have one qualifier, I guess that maker her the RACE O' THE DAY. :headbanger:

F&M OC40n3x $50kpurse 1m70yds

:1: PLEASANT MINE
:2: SERIOUS HAPPINESS
:3: TRACE OF GRACE
:4: LINE OF BEST FIT
:5: FLATTER ME ZANJA
:6: LA INESPERADA

ACT I: "the 5/16 race"
:1::4::5: exit the 5/16 race at this class.
Subtle dynamics. :4: LINE OF BEST FIT Fired off to a strong start wide, as did :1: PLEASANT MINE while very wide.
Meanwhile, Toledo, and Pennington on :5: FLATTER ME ZANJA, rode intelligent races saving ground and horse for the late run.
:4: LINE OF BEST FIT briefly won the speed duel inside her rival, and then took on Toledo's winning filly for a few strides, before flattening out and running evenly with :1: PLEASANT MINE.
:5: FLATTER ME ZANJA capitalized and came up to take 2nd while showing decent energy and fundamentals, although lugging-out a bit.

Subtle, but it appears that :1: PLEASANT MINE and :4: LINE OF BEST FIT were probably best out of that race.


ACT II: "Gary Sciacca ships in the :6:"
:6: LA INESPERADA has a history of flattening out. Claimed 2 back from Rudy/Dubb for $32K. Last race hounded a reasonably live Linda Rice filly Game Girl going a mile on the turf. Her chart looks better than her replay, as Game Girl briefly put her away, while :6: faded, and was then persevered more than Game Girl. She adds some additional quality to the pace. Tempting to consider as a price. She doesn't have as much of a class edge as some other NY -> Philly shippers.

ACT III: pace projecter
(benefits Pennington and the :5:)
:2:..............:1::4:
.........:5:......:3:
................:6:


Conclusion: Race Flow will ultimately be the strongest model in this race. :5: should stalk and pounce, with :4:(likeliest) or :1:(next likeliest) holding for Place, after winning the race-within-the-race vs the other early speeds.

Not exactly a dream value scenario. :1: or :6: are the two that you hope to use, to inject some value. They just don't seem to fit.
I guess the :5: winning late here could look visually impressive enough, that it will create value by betting against the :5: next out. Hopefully this is not the race where she finishes out of the exacta after a dull bid behind the horses knocking heads on the pace.

:4: is cold in pick3's and exactas, as well as the early WPS

:1: is taking money

Parx r7

$1 ex box :1::5:

(+1)

:coffee: 4 wins and pays $15
Wonder why the 4 was ice cold on the board?? Looked like the best horse in the race, while being a likely race flow victim.

That contested pace never materialized, and the 5 chose today to throw in the dull effort.

Not only do I feel bad that I didn't bet my opinion at a price, I don't get to bet against the 5 next time. :D

$1 exacta :3::4: over :2:

(-$1)


(2) Dream Saturday is in good form, and his good form is darkened by the race vs. Clearly Now, and the class-drop last time.

"DREAM SATURDAY raced five wide in the backstretch then picked up the pace
past the half, gained position near three eighths pole, continued driving five wide in the lane, was no match for clear winner, kept along to finish second best."

Belmont r7
50cent trifecta :5: w/ :4::8::11: w/ :4::11:


I think the 11, Divine Interventio is an interesting horse. This race is basically a 90K ungraded stakes. Good horses.

(-$3)

Belmont r6

$2 Show on :14: St Louie

Should get a generous payout if I hit this. I think I see some subtle form. Hopefully they don't walk on the pace. Guessing Pletcher's 1 being a likely pace setter, and horses like the 7, 10 , 11 trying to keep the 1 honest.

(-$5)

Belmont r4

$2 win :4:

(-$7)

$5.10 winner

(-$1.90)

Bel 5

$1 ex bx :2::3:

($-3.90)

If the public would do their part, I'd be way up in this thread. :coffee:

St. Louie proved best. Show pays $5.10

(+1.2) back above the surface *gasp*

Belmont r4

$1 Win :5::2:

(-$0.80)

that was a dumb bet. 'do-something syndrome'

$1 Exacta :4::8: w/ :2:


(-$2.80)

GOLD cup
 

$1 win on :3::4:

(-$4.80)

belmont r2

$2 Win :7:

(-$6.80)

returns $5.70

(-$1.10)

belmont r3

$2 Win :7:

(-$3.10)

returns $10.00

back above the surface again *gasp*

(+6.90)

$2 cold exacta :8: w/ :10:

(+$4.90)