Jason Kassa Handicaps the Saratoga Early Pick-5
 

:coffee:

RACE1 - A=:2::4: B=:1::6: (:2:QUICK ON THE DRAW- Abreu resuscitates layoff project. :4: COOL AS YOU LIKE - Same boat for Nevin, questionable tactical speed.) (STRATEGY- Don't be stupid by trying to be too cute. 2 is a tempting single, or simply both 2 and 4. Leave the door open for value in a short field that is unlikely to be the leverage point of the P5)


RACE 2 - A=:3::6: (:3: TOSSUP got an education first out. I personally like her better, but why quibble? :6:ELEGANT ZIP is a game filly.) (STRATEGY- I need one of these two standouts to win. I'm willing to lose if they both lose.) (LONG SHOT NOTE: :8: MARGIE CAT really surprised me in her workout footage)


RACE 3 - A=:1::2::4: (STRATEGY- BETTING AGAINST the morning line favorite :3:, who comes off a win in a favorable setup off the turf)

RACE 4 - ALL (:1::2::6::7::8:) (:7: AVERY MAEVE is a bridesmaid type. She is OBVIOUS and logial and will be favored. If she hangs this one could be up for grabs)

RACE 5 - ALL :1::2::3::4::5::6::7::8::9: (Guessing game with tradeoffs for experience and value. Interested in LONG SHOT :6: CHARMING CARA for low% barn with occasionaly NY-Bred success)



['PRO' TICKET
ALL A'S =
$2 P5 2, 4
$2 P5 3, 6
$2 P5 1, 2, 4
$2 P5 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
$2 P5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Wager Total $1080.00

EMPHASIZED OPINION=
$0.50 P5 2, 4
$0.50 P5 3, 6
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 4
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 6, 7
$0.50 P5 1, 4, 6, 7
Wager Total $96.00

A'S WT/ 1B
$0.50 P5 1, 6 ('B')
$0.50 P5 3, 6
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 4
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Wager Total $270.00

TOTAL = $1446]






[BUDGET STAB
$0.50 P5 2, 4
$0.50 P5 3, 6
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 4
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 6, 7
$0.50 P5 1, 4, 6, 7
Wager Total $96.00]


GOOD LUCK. LET'S GET THE RAIN AND THE SCRATCHES OUT OF OUR SYSTEM FOR TRAVERS DAY :ThmbUp:

Good luck, I agree with you on the last two legs, both races have price written all over them.

Thanks. Need a price eventually, as many singled the winner :4: in the first race.

I hope the :3::6: don't duel each other into submission in R2. They both seem like obvious standouts. Also will kick myself if the long shot :8: Margie Cat wins. She is showing some early money in exactas under the :3:... Her workout videos happened to be posted, and she is a decent NY-bred type. Given the strength of the favorites in here, I'm guessing :8: will be focused toward experience here and not hard-used. Maybe keep an eye on her going forward?

you got my interest so I took a look at the 4th leg.
.........IF.............EP.........LP
:1:_-3.713 ___ .37 ___ .27
:2:_-0.507 ___ .36 ___ .29
:4:_-4.809 ___ .37 ___ .25
:5:_0.132___ .36 ___ .29
:6:_0.201___ .35 ___ .29
:7:_1.493___ .35 ___ .31
:8:_3.686___ .33 ___ .35


From my little program. Notice the early pace. It is high (above.35) for six of the 7 runners. Notice the late pace, low for six of the 7 runners. The first column is a improvement factor. The highest rated horse here is also the one most likely to benefit from the pace. :8: is a contender here, and 20-1 on the ML.

:jump:Would love to see that. (provided I survive r3) It looks like either the :7: will out-class the field with a short well-timed move, or whoever happens to be running with the flow will get up...

Race 3 is no given. The 'steam' horse is the :1:. Everyone is hyped because of Navarro taking on this 5yo mare, but to be honest he will need to improve her to be competitive... Had to use, but not overconfident.

:4: Has a puncher's chance to wire this field. I'm slightly rooting for the :2:. I could use a dash of value, and she is a bit one-paced, but very strong and fundamentally sound, and gets off the rail for once today...

I did not use the :5:. Slightly scary, and the :3: is also obviously a danger to ruin all of the tickets.

constantly adapt
 

Given that I believe the :2: to be an overlay in R3 , and the risk IF :7: AVERY MAEVE wins the 4th race creating a value vacuum in my P5 tickets, I'm going to try to leverage;

$10 P3 :2:
$10 P3 :7:
$10 P3 ALL
Wager Total $90.00

Smart move :ThmbUp: Survived the stewards dice-roll randomness :jump:

One way or another, I'm gonna find ya'
I'm gonna get ya', get ya', get ya', get ya'
One way or another,

:ThmbUp:

Got your 2, lets get a price now! (like the longest shot on the board).

For the double I need the :7: or :8:, also keying the :8: in the exacta.

and...

I'm gonna rest on my laurels and cheer on your :8: in race 4

The public single wins agggh!
 

Shot through the heart
Avery Maeve
Darlin', you give love a bad name (bad name)


that hurts.

leverage point in the pick-5. Got a P3 to help the cause, but really want a price in here now

:6: CHARMING CARA longest shot on the board... Same connections that brought us DREAMING OF CARA, and MY CARA MIA.

Bought her from auction in May...

I know Friedman is a low% barn, but he has occasional NY-Breds... Is the horse totally dismissed for trainer stats? or is it well known that the $70k or whatever they spent 3 months ago was a mistake?

could be value

Never Satisfied
 

looks OK on the track

wins the 'best turned-out' award from Godolphin , can't be looking obviously terrible or anything


$1 EX ALL WT/ :6: = $8

$50c Tri ALL WT ALL WT :6: = $28

no need to bet more on her on top as she's covered.


Come on Baby!

wagered: $1,572.00
returned: $4,414.00
$1 ROI: $2.81

add me on facebook if that's your thing

:jump:

Good hit.

Got a good double myself. And just because of the price horse in the last leg...