Is Bolt d'Oro is next Real Quiet?
 

Real Quiet finished 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby and made a bold move around the turn that I can see Bolt making in the Kentucky Derby... food for thought. I can see it. If you get 10-1 on the most battle tested horse in the field that's really good value. I know he finished behind McKinzie and Justify but so would of Good Magic, Vino Rosso, and Audible. Who woulda guessed Bolt would be an under the radar horse? 4-1 not a great bet, 8 or 10-1 and i'd take that all day.

I've been considering this for weeks!:ThmbUp:

Bolt and Good Magic will be my plays....funny the top two year olds, who would have guessed.

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Wasn't Real Quiet a pretty average 2 year old?
Lots of foundation heading into the Derby.
Took him a while to improve.

Bolt was a beast of a 2 year old.
I'm thinking we may have seen the best of him, though.

I think the larger point was that a very talented horse, Real Quit, was forgotten because of a very very talented young horse whipped him in the SA Derby in Indian Charlie.

Indian Charlie was a very good horse, he finished 3rd in that Derby and got hurt, he could have been special.

Bolt DOro is very good, he may be forgotten because of Justify. I think its a fair point.

I won't rule him out, by any means.
He's a tough horse.

An MDO colt going a mile and a quarter on dirt, I would need a lot more than 10-1.

I think they said the same thing about Quiet American in the 1998 Kentucky Derby. They got a little over 8-1.

It’s possible but Real Quiet was another Raise A Native and Buckpasser-x horse. He picked up a couple lengths on Indian Charlie through the final 3/8. This relative to Bolt who lost a couple lengths. I guess if you like Bolt then you almost have to like Justify as well.

Agreed, plus somehow people leave out the fact that Good Magic beat Bolt D'oro and Solomini shipping west on their home tracks as a maiden. But the original poster and many others seem to have forgotten about the BC Juvenile race. Now somehow Good Magic would of finished behind all of them? A horse that also beat Enticed in a grade 1 as a maiden in NY. The logic is pretty thin on the accounts you read here. Now, he's Real Quiet? Ok I'm buying.......:)

Oh, that BC Juvenile sucked, so did the Champagne and Blue Grass, even though he's beaten much of the competition in this race.

I have talked a ton about Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Audible so I will set them aside ....

Good Magic beat Bolt
Good Magic is coming up to a lifetime best
Bolt hit his peak in the Frontrunner as a 2yr old and never progressed off that.
Good Magic looks like he wants the added distance .... Bolt not so much
Bolt had his jockey leave for greener pastures . Jose Ortiz staying put.
They will be roughly the same odds and you think Bolt offers the better value ?

lets talk real talk about the Juvenile.

Good Magic final 5/16 and 1/16 was 30.96 and 6.35 Bolt's was 31.17 and 6.44. So Good magic did run slightly over a length better over the last 5/16 but does anyone know how much further Bolt ran in the race? Id imagine it was a bunch, he was what? 6 wide around both turns maybe and Good magic got a perfect trip. If the same thing happens in the Derby and Good Magic gets the best possible trip and Bolt d'Oro gets the worst possible trip/ride id expect Good Magic to beat Bolt by the same amount maybe even more. My guess is Espinoza will be quite an upgrade over Nakatani. If you assume a horse length is 8 feet then Good Magic beat Bolt by 42 feet. Id guess Bolt lost more ground than that. Trips matter, if every horse was guaranteed the same trip the best horse on that day would always win.

Bolt d'Oro is a more naturally talented horse than Good Magic and if the trainers were flipped it wouldnt even be a conversation. Good Magic would never be even close to McKinzie. Chad Brown is a great trainer. Thats the main advantage Good Magic has. The pure hatred for Bolt d'Oro is mind boggling. Lets spin stats on all the other contenders too... smh... Yeah he didnt hit the wire in front of McKinzie and Justify, most of these horses wouldnt.

One was in his third crop of racers, the other is in his thirteenth.

Bolt D'Oro is from Medaglia D'Oro's 10th crop. Point taken regardless.

That aside, there is plenty of stamina in the fillies and the turf males. Additionally, there is no shortage of 9f dirt winners in an age where there is a clear dearth of graded stakes at 10f or more.