Race Lens fallacies continues....
 

This weeks newsletter had something I didn't see prior

In its biggest ROI , it comments on "projected leader"

OK....fine....I can tear that down too.....


Pic #1

Shows Rosario on first call leaders in Stakes Races....from 2021


He actually does fine with the top 3 ....but lets look at Race Lens comments on

being top first call


Pic #2

Here we go ...2021's big ROI year skewed results again....


Would you bet this?

I really thought they were taken a stronger attempt on the stuff they put out .....NOT !!!

The stat is based on "Projected Leader" which comes from the True Odds screen in Race Lens.


The algorithms were developed by Stats Perform and project which horse will be in front at the first and second call, not which horse was on the lead at the first or second call.


The results of that angle are accurate as measured.

You really didn't get my post or are you avoiding the real issue.....:bang:

Something WITH substance.....

I would bet this one....

The 2 yesterday were up the track...OP one was a favorite

saved by the scratch....:p

FG pick ....went off 6/5 ....had nothing

That Midshipman Oaklawn one - with the track having been given a completely new base and a new more heavily clay content cushion this year (instead of the normal "strip, sift, add a lttle material, replace" of the existing cushion) - I've been very wary of continuing all my previous years' use of sire/dam Oaklawn specific numbers.

Totally agree but I could make an argument for most angles...

Week of Feb 16....

Looking at the top ROI Play.....

Looks good for the 2 year stats....

But in Claming Races a .50 ROI.....and guess what...this is a claimer (nCLA 2)

Play or Pass ?

I guess my take is pass....

What's with these horses getting scratched all the time....

It was a fast track too.....:confused:

Lets look lastly at the OP horse for today.......

Pic #1....Trainer at OP with dirt sprints...looks OK

Pic #2....Todays race is a Stakes....looks Ok here

Pic #3....Todays jockey , tho not his best goto.....has 2 wins with trainer

My guess is a PLAY!

Play lost by a nose at 6-1

This weeks plays.....

We are going with same thing I said in Post #10 for Franco's horse...

This time he's in an Allowance Race ....

He's does well with this trainer....

Negatives: O'fer at Santa Anita and this distance

Positives : Horse is class of the field

Take: at 7 or 8 to 1 or higher ...a play

at 3/2 , he was a definite pass...and lost