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-   -   Beat the Chalk at 2-1 or less...ie...throw-outs from win spot (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=123120)

sammy the sage 05-30-2015 09:20 AM

Beat the Chalk at 2-1 or less...ie...throw-outs from win spot
 
going to run this thread for a few sat.'s...to see how bad a handicapper I am...at picking low prices NOT to run...didn't say I could pick a winner of said races...

5/30/15...two today don't like...

Churchill 8th...Work All Week #7...why...don't think this race is intended target...think it's work-out...could be wrong...

Santa Anita 8th...Moreno #7...why....gotta trust my eyes...will see if I need glass's or need to quit this game...reason's here in this thread...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ghlight=moreno

ReplayRandall 05-30-2015 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammy the sage
going to run this thread for a few sat.'s...to see how bad a handicapper I am...at picking low prices NOT to run...didn't say I could pick a winner of said races...

5/30/15...two today don't like...

Churchill 8th...Work All Week #7...why...don't think this race is intended target...think it's work-out...could be wrong...

Santa Anita 8th...Moreno #7...why....gotta trust my eyes...will see if I need glass's or need to quit this game...reason's here in this thread...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ghlight=moreno

Sammy, hope I don't mush you here, but I'm betting aggressively against both horses.....

sammy the sage 05-30-2015 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Sammy, hope I don't mush you here, but I'm betting aggressively against both horses.....

no mush & no problem...hope ya made out well... :ThmbUp:

ReplayRandall 05-30-2015 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammy the sage
no mush & no problem...hope ya made out well... :ThmbUp:

It's all good, hope the same for you...

sammy the sage 06-06-2015 08:25 AM

yes it was good...last week...this week 6/6/15...got nothing certain on...

the whole point is to be able to throw out the huge chalk at a better than 67% rate...after all it's that....just betting against blindly!!!

Sure there are couple to bet against this week...but not wasting much bankroll trying to beat...and not touting them to lose either...B.O.L. all...

til next time..............

ps...anybody want to contribute...as long as there's a legit reason behind...feel free! :ThmbUp:

ps.ps...internet rumor...believe at OWN risk....a virus going thru Pletcher Barn in NY...whose affected and whose not...anybody's guess...

sammy the sage 06-13-2015 07:14 AM

6/13...Churchill downs...."Lea" the strong favorite...they'll be a strong 2nd & 3rd choice as well...but "Lea" is the throw-out for on top...not only coming back from Dubai...but also w/a history of problems...good enough to take stand against...

sammy the sage 06-13-2015 08:19 AM

6/13...at Santa Anita...an even crazier throw-out for the win spot..."Beholder".....just a feeling...don't like the race pattern nor the being treated w/kid gloves treatment....she should be running for MUCH more money in this spot...she was scratched awhile back...gambling as they say!

Capper Al 06-13-2015 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammy the sage
yes it was good...last week...this week 6/6/15...got nothing certain on...

the whole point is to be able to throw out the huge chalk at a better than 67% rate...after all it's that....just betting against blindly!!!

Sure there are couple to bet against this week...but not wasting much bankroll trying to beat...and not touting them to lose either...B.O.L. all...

til next time..............

ps...anybody want to contribute...as long as there's a legit reason behind...feel free! :ThmbUp:

ps.ps...internet rumor...believe at OWN risk....a virus going thru Pletcher Barn in NY...whose affected and whose not...anybody's guess...

Admirable goal at 67%. Good luck.

Prytanis 06-13-2015 11:05 AM

Belmont 6/13
Race #3. I'm tossing #2 Hereditary @6/5 in a five horse field!

lamboguy 06-13-2015 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammy the sage
6/13...at Santa Anita...an even crazier throw-out for the win spot..."Beholder".....just a feeling...don't like the race pattern nor the being treated w/kid gloves treatment....she should be running for MUCH more money in this spot...she was scratched awhile back...gambling as they say!

she is training real solid, bad throwout

sammy the sage 06-14-2015 06:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy
she is training real solid, bad throwout

When Lambo speaks/writes....LISTEN....he has VERY good connections...and inside knowledge is better than form reading anytime!

record 3-1...

sammy the sage 06-14-2015 06:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prytanis
Belmont 6/13
Race #3. I'm tossing #2 Hereditary @6/5 in a five horse field!

good call...reasons why next time please...

lamboguy 06-14-2015 02:13 PM

Santa Anita race 9------i will try to beat the #3. the race he came out of wasn't that great even though it was msw and he hasn't trained that great since the race

ReplayRandall 06-14-2015 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy
Santa Anita race 9------i will try to beat the #3. the race he came out of wasn't that great even though it was msw and he hasn't trained that great since the race

Agree....use the #2- Restrike at 6-1 and the #8- Da Fastest One at 15-1 M/L......Like anyone pays attention or cares what I play.. :cool:

ultracapper 06-14-2015 05:07 PM

Betting aggressively against Miller in the 4th at SA on Sunday 6/14

ReplayRandall 06-14-2015 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ultracapper
Betting aggressively against Miller in the 4th at SA on Sunday 6/14

As Rick Perry would say.....Ooops..... :)

ultracapper 06-14-2015 05:30 PM

Damn it!! I had the right "other one" also.

ultracapper 06-14-2015 05:36 PM

You think I'd just do a saver exacta? Hell no, that would be too easy. Did you see what that exacta pay? I really shouldn't care, but you know how it is.

ultracapper 06-14-2015 05:47 PM

HA!! It paid $5.10. Glad I just took my lumps.

Lemon Drop Husker 06-14-2015 07:07 PM

R8 Santa Anita.

:8: Sam's Sister will be the chalk at somewhere from 3/5 to 6/5. She had a monster summer/fall/winter campaign as she won 5 of her first 6 races including the G1 La Brea and G2 Santa Monica at this very track. She ran into some tougher competition in her last two while getting some rest in between and heading into this one. She is unbeaten at Santa Anita (3 for 3) and is 2 for 2 at the distance.

A lighter field, supposedly, won't be a breather as there is oodles of speed on tap in here with the :2::5::6::9::11: all possessing front runner tendencies and sharpness from the gate. That should open it up for someone to come off the pace with Sam's Sister being the one to beat and could well encounter traffic problems.

I'll look for the :4: Living The Life and/or the :7: Harlington's Rose to get the job done today, and maybe even keep Sam's Sister out of the Exacta along with the :5: Wasted Talent.

Lemon Drop Husker 06-14-2015 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
R8 Santa Anita.

:8: Sam's Sister will be the chalk at somewhere from 3/5 to 6/5. She had a monster summer/fall/winter campaign as she won 5 of her first 6 races including the G1 La Brea and G2 Santa Monica at this very track. She ran into some tougher competition in her last two while getting some rest in between and heading into this one. She is unbeaten at Santa Anita (3 for 3) and is 2 for 2 at the distance.

A lighter field, supposedly, won't be a breather as there is oodles of speed on tap in here with the :2::5::6::9::11: all possessing front runner tendencies and sharpness from the gate. That should open it up for someone to come off the pace with Sam's Sister being the one to beat and could well encounter traffic problems.

I'll look for the :4: Living The Life and/or the :7: Harlington's Rose to get the job done today, and maybe even keep Sam's Sister out of the Exacta along with the :5: Wasted Talent.

Welp, we got the :8: to finish 3rd, but I certainly couldn't see the :2: winning this thing in gate to wire fashion at a bomb of a price at 43/1. :eek: A near $90 winner and a $560 Exacta. I guess you can't be immune to the "All" button sometimes. :D

sammy the sage 06-14-2015 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
R8 Santa Anita.

:8: Sam's Sister will be the chalk at somewhere from 3/5 to 6/5. She had a monster summer/fall/winter campaign as she won 5 of her first 6 races including the G1 La Brea and G2 Santa Monica at this very track. She ran into some tougher competition in her last two while getting some rest in between and heading into this one. She is unbeaten at Santa Anita (3 for 3) and is 2 for 2 at the distance.

A lighter field, supposedly, won't be a breather as there is oodles of speed on tap in here with the :2::5::6::9::11: all possessing front runner tendencies and sharpness from the gate. That should open it up for someone to come off the pace with Sam's Sister being the one to beat and could well encounter traffic problems.

I'll look for the :4: Living The Life and/or the :7: Harlington's Rose to get the job done today, and maybe even keep Sam's Sister out of the Exacta along with the :5: Wasted Talent.

nice write & call on the big fav. NOT winning!...

sammy the sage 06-27-2015 09:37 AM

6/27/15
 
6/27/15 Santa Anita

7th race Triple Bend...Masochistic...don't like the work-out pattern change...and that last work...wow...still a weak grade 1.....maybe he get's it done...betting against tho...b.o.l. all...

sammy the sage 07-04-2015 07:20 AM

7/4 Happy birthday USA !
 
Belmont the Dwyer...Texas Red should get beat today...thinking this is a prep for the Dandy/Travers...especially off a problem...and on a rolled sealed track or sloppy...coming from dead last at this distance will be tough against this bunch....some other's improving as well....

current record 3-2...big stakes only...

pandy 07-04-2015 10:06 AM

Samraat is a nice horse but off the long layoff in the 4th at Belmont today, he seems vulnerable, especially considering that he had screws put in him since his last race.

lamboguy 07-04-2015 10:25 AM

bet the chalk
 
Bel 1-4, 8-2

Del 1-4, 5-7

Mth 2-3

Prx 1-2

Wdb 9-2

sammy the sage 07-04-2015 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy
Bel 1-4, 8-2

Del 1-4, 5-7

Mth 2-3

Prx 1-2

Wdb 9-2

think I'll start a thread w/that...my bet would be Tonalist today...w/the upcoming weather will be even tougher...

the Key to betting chalk in my book is to create value by betting w/another horse...that's YOUR job...but I try to get 6/1 at least w/either doubles or exactas or pik3/4's...

sammy the sage 07-04-2015 08:46 PM

Great call Pandy....thanks for the reasoning as well....

record now for o.p....4-2...in big stakes...

pandy 07-04-2015 08:52 PM

Thanks. I read about the injury and operation he had in the Daily Racing Form yesterday.

sammy the sage 07-05-2015 07:33 AM

7/5/15...Gulfstream smile sprint 250k...9/5 shot Work All Week....ain't coming down to fla. at 90 deg.'s + humidity for feel like temp of 105+....unless much the best...don't think so...might not even hit the board...would watch post parade and make a call...

sammy the sage 07-05-2015 08:02 PM

5-2 now...although will have to admit today's pick/reasoning w/climate...might not have been the best of reasons...still something one must consider infrequently as it may be...

Lemon Drop Husker 07-09-2015 04:56 PM

7/9/15: Belmont R8

:8: Havana getting all the early tote action getting bet down to 2/1 with the :9: Classy Class the ML favorite right there at 3/1. In an OC $62.5n2x, I see both looking ahead to bigger and better while trying to land a win in this one and advance.

The 7F distance is what really gets me interested here. While both ran this distance in their last out, both finished well back in 11th and 4th respectively at this track. I'm sure one or both will rebound with a much more solid effort against less competition, but a win certainly isn't guaranteed.

The :3: Doc Almon is running as well as he ever has coming in off of 2 victories at Monmouth and Parx. They have tried him at Belmont before 3 times with a lone 2nd, so he can run decently enough here while getting Jacobson in the barn and Cornelio on the mount.

However, I'll be leaning elsewhere with the :6: Warrior's Crown. His last on Belmont Stakes day wasn't that bad against a pretty solid field. He came out of it with some solid works,a nd another move forward today could see him in the winner's circle at a nice 5-6/1 price.

Lemon Drop Husker 07-09-2015 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
7/9/15: Belmont R8

:8: Havana getting all the early tote action getting bet down to 2/1 with the :9: Classy Class the ML favorite right there at 3/1. In an OC $62.5n2x, I see both looking ahead to bigger and better while trying to land a win in this one and advance.

The 7F distance is what really gets me interested here. While both ran this distance in their last out, both finished well back in 11th and 4th respectively at this track. I'm sure one or both will rebound with a much more solid effort against less competition, but a win certainly isn't guaranteed.

The :3: Doc Almon is running as well as he ever has coming in off of 2 victories at Monmouth and Parx. They have tried him at Belmont before 3 times with a lone 2nd, so he can run decently enough here while getting Jacobson in the barn and Cornelio on the mount.

However, I'll be leaning elsewhere with the :6: Warrior's Crown. His last on Belmont Stakes day wasn't that bad against a pretty solid field. He came out of it with some solid works,a nd another move forward today could see him in the winner's circle at a nice 5-6/1 price.

Swing and a miss. :9: Classy Class with a solid, professional, and easy win as he coasts home to a 1+ length victory over a late running :3: Doc Almon. :6: was an also ran along with the :8: Havana in which CC ran them off their feet and could have won by 5 or more if need be.

sammy the sage 08-08-2015 10:44 AM

8/8/15

1st race at Saratoga...#6....Mail...trainer's leading jock bails...so will I...

6th also 'toga'....#4...Ocean Knight...whilst the best here...don't think this race is the intended target...more like a good work-out...might get paid...might not is my stance....thinking NEXT is the time to bet this one...

sammy the sage 08-09-2015 05:05 PM

correct on 1...scratch on the other...record now...6-2...

sammy the sage 08-12-2015 08:19 AM

8/12...Delmar stakes 7th race...#7 Pretty N Cool...a Baffert throw-out from the win spot......which is tough to do...still...last 2 works are NOT Baffert like....

sammy the sage 08-12-2015 08:35 PM

ouch...wrong on this one...record now 6-3...average...

sammy the sage 10-03-2015 09:48 AM

5th...Belmont...Honor Code #5...3/5...yes last was spectacular...yes he's won on mud before....BUTTTTT.......this horse has been ouchy and never put 3 good ones in a row++++today's race is NOT the target....

pandy 10-03-2015 09:54 AM

I hope you're right, I took a swing against Honor Code today.

sammy the sage 10-03-2015 10:18 AM

Keeneland 6th..#3..Judy the Beauty..at 6/5...whilst bred for slop...hasn't done it yet+++many other's here also well bred for it++++her last 2...no excuses...+++this race is NOT her target... if she wins...I lose...


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