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-   -   Risen Star - G2 (Sat, 2/19/22 - 6:58 est) (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=169272)

Michael 02-18-2022 10:45 AM

Risen Star - G2 (Sat, 2/19/22 - 6:58 est)
 
The links to free past performances are to encourage discussion.

I'll leave my comments for later when I have a solidified opinion. :coffee:

As for The Rachel Alexandra - I'm fairy sure the public is going to get this one wrong. In fact, I think every contender will be an underlay. (Just a gut feeling, as it's difficult for me to sus out a strong opinion) I don't think I can take anything less than 7/1 on any entry. Guess the hope is that the crowd runs in one direction... or I can just be wrong and have a terrible opinion on this race.

Free Past Performances
brisnet: https://www.horseracingnation.com/co...rformances_pps
timeform US: (free to sign up and view pps)
https://timeformus.com/

jay68802 02-18-2022 12:06 PM

The Rachel Alexandra

:1: La Crete 8/1 Has done nothing wrong. Broke maiden at CD in a romp, and followed it up with a win on this track while being headed and fought back. Going to find out what she is made of here. 8/1 is to low for me to find out, esp with two other E horses that appear to be faster.

:2: North County 8/1 Another on that has done nothing wrong. Has the right running style in a race that appears to have some speed. But has not seen a race with pace and do not think she will like a hotter pace.

:3: Miss Mattie B 15/1 Best race was on the turf and was a shocker at almost 30/1. One of three that still qualify for N2L or N1X competition. Not good enough IMO.

:4: Dream Lith 6/1 Added blinkers in last and ran her best race. Got a break and has steady works. Dangerous jockey and trainer. 6/1, if you get that price is right. Contender.

:5: Divine Huntress 6/1 Might take some $ but not any of mine. Won two at Parx with great set ups against weak fields. Sees much better in this race and will not like it.

:6: Candy Raid 30/1 No idea why this horse is entered here. Toss

:7: Turnerloose 12/1 Will be involved early. Faded badly in last but got a break and maybe Cox can work some magic....Price says use in a spread bet.

:8: Goddess of Fire 8/1 Pletcher and Saez. Did not get much pace in last but still almost won. Got my attention. Contender.

:9: Awake At Midnyte 7/2 One of two likely favorites, and deserves it. Looks to set just off the pace and hope nothing runs her down. Can be a default winner.

:10: California Angel 30/1 Best figure came while finishing 11th of 14 and on the turf. Needs 10 other runners to scratch.

:11: Hidden Connection 3/1 Colonial Downs to break maiden??? Wide post and low odds are not a good combination.


The Risen Star.

The :10: Slow Down Andy is going to take $$. People are going to see the win over Mesier and the last fig and might go crazy. Save your money and bet the winner. :8: Smile Happy.

Good luck!

Michael 02-19-2022 09:04 AM

I'm going with :8: Smile Happy as a single. Pretty sure he's going to expose all the others as pretenders. That said, I can't argue against anyone betting Slow Down Andy. The horse won last out running sideways. Reminded me of Authentic's maiden race when he was all over the place coming down the stretch.(Pretty sure they jammed cotton balls into his ears as the fix) It's possible he puts it together.

As for the Rachel Alexandra - Contenders: La Crete, Dream Lith, Divine Huntress, Awake at Midnyte and Hidden Connection. All of which I have in that 18% ball park and strangely enough I don't believe I'll get the value I would want on any of them. Exciting race but I'll pass on the betting end... and just for action single Awake at Midnyte in the pick 5.

PalaceOfFortLarned 02-19-2022 09:27 AM

This has become a really nice KD prep with the increased purse and distance to 9F. Solid winners recently with Gun Runner, War Of Will, and Mandaloun just last year.

Likely a race between :1:Pappacap, :7:Zandon, :8:Smile Happy, and :10:Slow Down Andy. :8: Smile Happy has handled 8.5F thus far with little trouble, but I'm still leery of Runhappy's at Classic distances.

Don't like the :5: at all, so likely put him in the winner's circle.

:9:Bodock is the horse of some interest for me. Solid breeding for Classic distances, Calumet, and Brad Cox. However, we're looking at a massive jump in class from OC$50K, and distance from his 5.5F and 6F races thus far. Would need 25/1 or better for a W bet. Likely will not get that.

Robert Fischer 02-19-2022 11:49 AM

have a nice day guys


Thomas Roulston 02-19-2022 01:37 PM

One would think that Smile Happy doesn't have a Derby pedigree - but the bottom half of his pedigree is so loaded with stamina that Smile Happy's Dosage Profile is 2-6-5-2-1, yielding a DI of 1.91 and a CD of 0.38.

zico20 02-19-2022 05:26 PM

:5: to win in a wide open affair. Other than the :2: there is no definite throw out for the super although I don't care for the :9: very much. Slow times, stretching out and moving up in class. Not a good combination.

:5: with :1::3::8: with :1::3::6::7::8::10: with :1::3::6::7::8::10:

Tom 02-19-2022 06:26 PM

Rachael Alexandra

:9: Awake at Midnyte for me.

1W3P

Tom 02-19-2022 06:35 PM

For the Risen Srar.....

:5::1::10:

Hard to judge Zandon off the pathecic Remsen. Be watching him closely now he is runnoing with real horses on a real track. Was he pulling a milk wagon at Aqu? :rolleyes:

Tom 02-19-2022 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom (Post 2788057)
Rachael Alexandra

:9: Awake at Midnyte for me.

1W3P

:rant::rant::rant::mad::mad::mad:

3rd

CheckMark 02-19-2022 06:54 PM

Does anyone know what happened with :1: La Crete in R12?

Looked like the horse broke something but hoping all is ok :eek:

ctownraces@bp 02-19-2022 07:09 PM

try 2 longshots to win #3 and #4 and play them in the exacta with #1 and #8

CaptainObvious 02-19-2022 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CheckMark (Post 2788063)
Does anyone know what happened with :1: La Crete in R12?

Looked like the horse broke something but hoping all is ok :eek:

From Stonestreet - La Crete is comfortable and weight bearing. She has a condylar fracture that is a good candidate for repair.

CheckMark 02-20-2022 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious (Post 2788110)
From Stonestreet - La Crete is comfortable and weight bearing. She has a condylar fracture that is a good candidate for repair.

Thanks for the update :ThmbUp:

Tom 02-20-2022 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CheckMark (Post 2788175)
Thanks for the update :ThmbUp:

+1 :ThmbUp:


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