Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
(Post 2277969)
Real bleak. Has worked in the past and I'm too bullheaded to quit.
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It's a game of streaks...
You could be doing great selecting and still be on a bad random streak when dealing with long shots. Then you may hit 2 in a day...
Everyone has an opinion, so I may as well chime in.
I feel like these kind of results are relatively more likely to occur in races with a high degree of randomness/chaos/entropy than in races where I happen to 'like' a longer shot.
I think you already touched on that with your 'Turf' pre-selection, but it could be expanded upon.
What are the main things that cause a chaos race?
Not a question that I have a strong answer to.
-Sometimes a race just doesn't have any dominant horses, so by default, the public bets the 'best' of that bunch...
-The above can be in any race, but sometimes it seems to happen more often than usual in maiden claimers or cheap claimers. Occasionally a full field of 'bad' horses is carded, and it just takes a little bit of a bad trip with the 'most likely' horse, to allow a long shot to wire the field, or a cavalry charge to reward whoever happens to still be running in the stretch...
-Sometimes it's as simple as a type of race. For a while last year, full-field turf sprints at Belmont seemed to often be chaotic.
What are the best types of long shots for these races?
Another question I wish I had the answer to.
-I want long shots that either will be up on the lead(however unlikely they are to get the distance), or long shots that have some semblance of a stretch run((doesn't have to be a 'deep' closer)should the late flow of the race 'move them up'). These long shots
tease that they have a chance to at least be in position (on the lead, or with the stretch-runners late), but they generally either have demonstrated some success in recent races at a significantly lower class level, or they have 'proven to be dull' at this level(or above) and would really need to be brave or get a good trip today.
