Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
I'm gonna use a form of Dutching for a while at Pocono based off of the morning line odds. I will play 50% of the field in races with 7 or more runners.
My strategy is to wager an amount that will return at least $50 off of the morning line odds. Some races will have more than $50 wagered, so I'm hoping that the swing in odds from the public influence can lead to profit. I will track outcomes and post results.
Wagers will be returned on scratched horses. The % of change from my initial bankroll, will determine my winnings goal per race in the next card. For example, my starting bankroll is $1000. At the end of tonight if I am at $1500 (50% increase), then my goal next card will be to win $75 off of the ML odds.
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Coach let me offer some unsolicited comments.
Unless you have data to the contrary, a dutch play may be more successful using the win probabilities established as close to post time as possible.
I run those probabilities starting a 4 min to post.
I always convert the win probabilities to the true estimate that is (1/(odds+1)/booking %)
You say you play 50% of the field based on the number of horses in the race.
Try betting no more than 50% of the win pool probabilities.
I use the true estimated probabilities as my bet size, the $1 return is the same as $1 return on dutch play.
I do go a step further. I used the true estimated probabilities to make an exacta betting matrix. there is more to this if interested.
Good luck
