I always use the 6% margin of error rule when I look at a race. My rule so...If the top figure is X then you accept as competitive in the race any figure within the 94 percentile. I find this rule to be at worst around 80% and normally around 87%. We keep hearing about Buckpasser X and RAN lines being the esoteric realities of this game and since 1990 RAN is only at 58%. Pedigrees change too. It may never be that good again in the next 18 years. But fast will always be good. It will always outperform nearly all other statistics. Top figure is not only what figure players look at. That perversion of thinking being applied by non figure players is as bad as pace players betting only frontrunners! I understand what is going on in pedigree. And as applied to the Derby it's not that complicated. The pedigree work I do with turf races take some real artful insight. Seeing how it is used here and the scorn by the same players against figures reminds of of someone trying to hit a hard ball with a wiffle ball bat. Looking for the next Giacomo to validate their entire being as their entire playing life revolves around this single race. Talk about outliers, stupidity, and BS! We've got a whole legion of players who embody all those virtues and they all try to preach to us this time of year. Cheers!
