Single-pool wagering opens up new bet types, but many find it too complex:
http://www.drf.com/news/single-pool-...it-too-complex
Quote:
Longitude officials contend that single-pool wagering will provide a multitude of benefits, including the ability to display real-time odds and an increase in pool liquidity, a term that supporters of the system use to describe the ability of a bettor to place a wager of any size without dramatically changing the odds. That ability would presumably enable bettors to make larger and larger bets. It would also give incentives to racetracks to offer new bet types that can’t be justified under the present system because they do not draw enough wagers, supporters say.
Under the system, most wagers – whether exacta, place, superfecta, etc. – would be combined in a single pool. Using patented mathematical techniques that were developed to analyze the prices of commodities and derivatives on exchanges, the pool’s calculator would analyze the amount of money on a specific finish-order outcome to determine payouts. In practical terms, if a horse is being played more heavily in exacta bets to finish first relative to the money bet on the horse to win, the win price for the horse would be lower than in a standard mutuel pool to reflect the positions taken by the exacta players.
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I'm against this.
The proposed changes call for all pools to be merged into a single pool.
I predict that if adopted, the new system will cause the avg win mutuel for true longshots to go down (and not by an insignificant amount.)
Imo, this change, if adopted - would make it harder on a guy like me.
Imo this change, if adopted - would also make it easier on the whale syndicates. (They wouldn't need to go as deep in terms of coverage as they do now. They could bet even more money on the top 2 or 3 in the field than they do now.)
Simple observation: Look at the wps pool amounts and percentages for any horse paying a big win mutuel under the current system.
True longshots have a really tiny percentage of total win pool vs. the other horses in the race.
But generally that same true longshot ends up with a higher percentage of the total place and show pool than it does for the win pool.
If the new system is adopted and all pools are merged together into a single pool:
What do you think is going to happen to the win mutuel of a true longshot?
Hint: I don't see it going up.
-jp
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