Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
Single-pool wagering opens up new bet types, but many find it too complex:
http://www.drf.com/news/single-pool-...it-too-complex
Simple observation: Look at the wps pool amounts and percentages for any horse paying a big win mutuel under the current system.
True longshots have a really tiny percentage of total win pool vs. the other horses in the race.
But generally that same true longshot ends up with a higher percentage of the total place and show pool than it does for the win pool.
If the new system is adopted and all pools are merged together into a single pool:
What do you think is going to happen to the win mutuel of a true longshot?
Hint: I don't see it going up.
-jp
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You would hope the algorithm is smart enough to understand that the probabilities of a horse placing or showing are related to his chances of winning, but not perfectly. So the payoffs would reflect that in the same way they sometimes get reflected in current pools.
