Quote:
Originally Posted by Keeneland
Hi all
Long time lurker first time poster. First off thanks for all the information and entertainment that can be found on this board. I’ve enjoyed the banter and depth of the types of handicappers here.
I’m a recreational player who enjoys on-site capping in Kentucky. My favorite tracks are Keeneland, Turfway, and Kentucky Downs (big fields).
Just looking for thoughts on ticket structure around trifectas and pic 3’s. Since there are not many odds on type favorites at these tracks so: should I be going deeper? More focused on keys/singles? etc. My normal wagering pattern for tri’s are 4 horse box or ab/abcd/abcde. Pic 3’s are all over the place.
This has been something I’ve struggled with. Just looking for other views/opinions.
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Hi,
Ideally you want your ticket structure to reflect your expectations about the end result of the race.
Very seldom is it the case that a 4-horse box truly reflects what you expect, as there are nearly always one or two that seem identifiably more probable as winners than the next ones.
Your trifecta layout of ab/abcd/abcde is bound to be more rewarding than is the "box" alternative. I certainly don't feel that the ab/abcd/abcde should be rigid, instead it should be adaptable to (the 7-horse fields of today). That is to say that, depending upon the scenario, you should be perfectly willing and comfortable adjusting to the race before you while maintaining the "Christmas tree" look of your ticket (narrow on top, and getting wider on the way down).
Sure, a 4-horse box is simple... and there is even a button on the screen to facilitate it (because sooooooooooooo many people do it)... but it isn't optimal except in the oddest of situations.
With regard to pick-3's... being adaptable to the layout of the card in front of you is most important. People probably spread too deep because of that gnawing urge to be "alive". Don't be afraid to just take your stand on a limited number of pick-3 combinations, knowing that another pick-3 begins on the next race (if done optimally, your stances on consecutive pick-3's can certainly complement one another. Building a bit of leverage never hurt anyone)
