Race 5- Del-5.5 f.-4000 n1y-Purse 10k-10/11/17
Using Class Hcp method: Eliminate the 1, 3, 4, 10, & 11 for recency. Elim. 1 for form for starters.
Synchronous 3-1 ML 30% - 6194 (3-1) 4 pts.- Qual 2nd - 6 bl’s @ 8000
Carolina Speed 4-1 ML 44% - 4189 (2-2) 4 pts.-Qual ?? 8th-31 bls’ on turf. 2LR > 5 mos.
Mr. Game Seven 5-1ML 10% - 3419 (6-3) 9 pts.-Qual. 3rd - 1 bl. @ 4000
Oxford Street 10-1 ML 25% - 1193 (4-5) 9 pts.-Qual 2nd -4.5 bl’s @ 5000b
Portent 8-1 ML 42% -4015 (2-2) 4 pts.-Qual 4th-6 bl’s @ 8000
Faithful Servant 15-1 ML 16% - 840 (5-6) 11 pts. -Qual 4th-4.75 bl’s @ 4000
Nico’s Prize 6-1 ML 50% - 2700 (1-4) 5 pts. - Qual 2nd - hd @ 4000
So we have three horses tied at 4 points with a 4th horse close behind at 5 pts. I so want to put a NQ next to
Carolina Speed since his last race was dismal on the turf, and we have to go back over 5 months to get a qualified race on dirt. However, his huge drop looks formidable. So I get
Carolina Speed first for now;
Portent,
Synchronous, &
Nico’s Prize.
I said in the Hcp Method thread I give “little” consideration to speed. But when three horses are tied with the same numbers, I do two things to break ties. List the last two speed ratings(same dist) and /or look at EPS for this year only. In both cases the
wins in both categories. The
is competitive with
for SR’s and the
beats the
for EPS this year only.
For Races 1 & 2 at Delaware, see Handicapping Thread.
