The
is scratched. I thought I was going to love this race and then I saw that the
, who is the morning line favorite, hasn't run in just over six months. I don't like betting races with horses off that long who are one of the obvious choices if you disregard the layoff. I rarely guess right! I am going to shock everyone with my selection so if you have a bad heart maybe you should stop reading.
Secret Chat 15-1 ML All three of his races he has had horrible starts. What are the chances it happens four in a row? That is what I was thinking, not likely! Three solid races and the last was after over a four month layoff. This horse doesn't quit and a good start may be all that he needs. The longshot special of the Derby trail. THE PICK!
The Wine Steward 5-2 ML Four great races but you wonder how bad the horse was injured and how ready he will be off the layoff. I am tossing him completely from the tri and super and hope he doesn't run one step. TOSS
Dilger 12-1 ML It should be a battle between him and the
for who runs second last. TOSS
Footprint 10-1 ML Another one who has had some bad luck at the start recently. The problem is he has absolutely zero speed and at Keenland that isn't good. Has an outside chance at finishing 3rd or 4th at a decent price.
Hades 7-2 ML Had Fierceness run his race Hades would have been chasing a 47 half. Would he have held on for second? Not sure he would, so he looks better than he really is on paper. He really isn't that fast early and we will see with the two week turnaround. There is just something about him that I don't like and I can't put my finger on it. Blinkers on means he is going for the lead. Wouldn't be shocked if he ran in the money or out of the super.
How's Ur Attitude 30-1 ML I say he loses to the
for second last. TOSS
Encino 5-1 ML Big jockey change for this. What I said last week still applies today. I think he hits the back end of the tri or super.
Liberal Arts 4-1 ML Another coming back in two weeks and Irad takes over. A must use in the exotics, of course I said that last time and he got into all sorts of trouble. Don't see two troubled trips in a row. The main threat to my longshot!
Lucky Jeremy 8-1 ML My problem with him is that he never should have lost second in the Sunland Derby to Alotaluck. I wonder if they are going to try to rate him off of Hades or go for the lead. I think he is better suited as a stalker myself and if that is the case I think he has a strong chance at being in the super.
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QUICK STORY
About 30 years ago at Turfway, the second was a maiden race and I loved the
who was 30-1 on the ML. He had ran two races and lost by like 20 and 22 lengths. Don't know why I thought he couldn't lose so I go over to put 200 to win on him. No one from the DRF picked him in the top three and the guy who does all the horses had him dead last. I had wild dreams in my head of him going off 99-1 and me winning a fortune. The first flash of the tote board and he is 1-9 and goes off at 4-5 and wins easily. I was so pissed at the odds that I didn't bet. This has happened to me a few other times, not this dramatic of a difference but every time I pick a longshot they go off way lower than anyone ever expects. My reason for this story if you like the
I wouldn't expect 15-1 or higher. He could be the favorite!
