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@The General - my two cents is to handicap the races for a feeder or qualifier prior to entering the event, especially if your recreational budget is limited. This should provide a feel for how good a chance you have, which picks got points for you, and steer you away from the days when the tracks and/or races are not to your advantage.
I've been to the NHC twice, and now rarely play the feeders unless one of my favored tracks is in the contest mix (Kee, Aqu, Sar, Dmr). This also has the effect of providing breaks during the course of the year, which is always good for the brain.
Play in the free and cheap tourneys (especially at HTs) to build some confidence. I've strung together some pretty impressive losing streaks, but always feel better when I win in a short field, or finish higher up in a larger field (ie, 3rd out of 350). Check out the list of players in the tournaments you play and you'll see plenty of public names of past winners and tour leaders finish far out of many contests.
The NHC is a lot of fun, in spite of knowing it'll be hard to get a hot streak that last three days. But the limited number of races and the fact that nobody has won it twice make the case for the little guy with no fancy software having somewhat equal footing as the whales....
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