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Old 11-22-2017, 01:24 PM   #1
letswastemoney
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Let's handicap the Fall Highweight

It's the TimeformUS Race of the Day for Thursday.

https://timeformus.com/basicpps/231389/2124147

Great Stuff (12-1) - This is an improved horse. The Oct. 22 "flop" is forgivable because of the glacial pace and poor break. Is the improvement enough to win this though? Will he get enough pace from behind? Maybe.

Hey Jabber Jaw (20-1) - Taking a horse who gave up the lead after 23 and 46 fractions for a 6F race is tough. He will get no breaks with Green Gratto here.

Stallwalkin' Dude (2-1) - While he is the best horse, he received a wonderful pace setup in the Bold Ruler and failed to finish the job. He also had dead aim on Takaful in the Vosburgh. He does not seem invincible, but must be considered.

Threefiveindia (5-1) - The Phoenix did not look too strong, even though Limousine Liberal came back to win against tomato cans at Churchill Downs. Despite the excellent trainer/jockey team (Brown/Castellano), inclined to pass.

Schivarelli (20-1) - Is he really running here? He just won a few days ago. Any horse that is claimed four times in a row must be healthy and feeling well. With that said, this is a tougher group of horses. Inclined to pass as well.

Green Gratto (8-1) - Wow, is that a 130 TimeformUS Speed Figure? But he's done 130+ speed figures before and failed to repeat it each time. Skeptical.

Life in Shambles (12-1) - The pace could not have been any more glacial in the Oct. 22 race. He won though. Possibly a trifecta factor.

Ready for Rye (10-1) - Just *too slow for Grade I horses, although he tends to pick up checks at this level. Note, he ran third in this same race last year, and owns a win over Life in Shambles back in June.

Seymourdini (5/2) - Is he running here? Read somewhere that he's scratching for the Cigar Mile. An obvious factor if the connections do change their mind and stick with the Fall Highweight.

Conclusion

Interested to see if Great Stuff can keep moving forward. He's my tentative pick for now, but someone needs to go with Green Gratto early.

Last edited by letswastemoney; 11-22-2017 at 01:30 PM.
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