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Margin means nothing if you do not have an edge -- meaning that he must know something that the market does not. (as I know you know) Simply betting what appears to be overlays based on a margin difference will still end in a loss without having an underlying edge.
I am not tracking his plays with all his 'substitutions', only the plays with his top 3 picks. I do not believe that he could turn a profit from the flat bet loss percentages that I posted by simply playing overlays. We will never know, however, because he makes many substitutions which cannot be analyzed objectively.
In my experience, those percentages do not suggest an underlying edge. That is just my opinion. And I did use a 172 race sample. Not a 1 day sample :-0
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