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[AutumnLotus]

In searching for the contents within the September 1964 issue of ATF, a Ray Taulbot article regarding his Dutching / hedging system when a handicapper frequently narrows the race down to three likely contenders, I came across a link from a short thread within the deep pages of this very message board, the link and brief description was posted sometime in 2011 by one of our very own frequent pace advantage users.

I am hoping to find the article in its entirety, I emailed American turf monthly yesterday so hopefully they can help further.

In the interim, the gentleman who posted the link provided the meat of the system Taulbot created.

I had to take a screenshot of it, refer to the image, give it a look over, would love to hear your opinions.

The dutching program I use calculates the same thing once a target wager is entered. Handy little chart to have nonetheless.


I have become very interested in dutching/hedging as of late, and have been working relentlessly on something that I do not yet want to share, but so far the results have been incredible, and I look forward to sharing it!
BELOW IS ABOUT MY DIVE INTO DUTCHING/HEDGING BEFORE COMING ACROSS THIS SYSTEM - i.e., screenshot

Some of you may have seen recently I posted a thread about the best way to approach three contender selections. I realize it is a loaded question that can spin off in many different opinions on the matter and for the more well versed of you, I am also aware that to give a proper opinion on the matter solid statistical data is needed to answer such questions such as what is the percentage overall that one of the three contenders win/ as well as what is the percentage that two of the three come in enough times to warrant betting exactas/ and so on.

To add some perspective about my situation prior to laying my questions out I will tell you that at the moment I have Just a couple of days under a full two months of back data/ back checking over two tracks (Penn National and Charles Town), Of which by this evening I will be up to date move / March. My situation is threefold:

1. To get a dependable percentage regarding one of the three for the WIN SPOT.

2. To record the true odds of my three selections which will then be scrutinized, painstakingly I might add, getting a clear and concise picture of the spread between the odds / 3 selections, And Inputting those odds into a three horse dutching / hedging program I have, Of which I will then record and analyze the average spread between the odds in an effort to find and record the “sweet spot” and make a chart relative to the information so that I do not have to continue going back and forth between my printouts and hedging program, etc.
The sweet spot/chart is to reveal the average fluctuations/drop/rise of the odds up to the very last moment that my wager would be accepted.
*So far, I have a standard odds chart divided into sections based on what I am uncovering with the odds changing at the last moment, and for the most part it is working. During live testing of this, the odds have not went below my guestimation when odds are FINALIZED/TRU ODDS. In fact, I am being more than conservative and going up to 4 STEPS (steps not groups) LESS than the real final odds, so that any money wagered in the near future, granted will be less profit, will however be covered.

For example, of my 3 selections there is usually a 1st or 2nd favorite that unless super chalky I immediately assume 3/2. If the odds are 2/1 5 min before Post Time I enter it into the program as 3/2. Unless hedging I do not go lower. Then regarding the other 2 selections, obviously one wants a good spread in odds between them, and high odds for a good payoff, I adjust accordingly.

The groups are:
1/9 to 4/5 Not that I would play within this group, just posting how I separated the odds based on my research.
1/1 to 7/5
3/2 to 2/1
5/2 to 4/1
9/2 to 7/1
9/1 to 12/1
13/1 & UP

3. And the last thing that I intend to do once I have this data up to the most current races Of this month is to go over and above with a fine comb all the info about my three selections in its entirety and try to make a set of rules and guidelines to follow and that will of course be scrutinized perhaps every two weeks to a month to make sure the rules and guidelines continue to work. Some of the guidelines I intend to uncover to make things easier will be for example one of the guidelines that I use already in testing is if one of my selections is lower than 5 to 2 and or Has the lowest odds between the other two in the vicinity of 3/1 and lower as post-time approaches I automatically enter 3/2 odds. It sucks to say this but with the small fields and depressing payoffs (I'm looking at you turf paradise. Ridiculously elementary) The majority of my data shows a large portion of the lower odds when one of the three selections are included it is best to make it a rule and enter it as 3 / 2 odds and depending on the odds of my other two selections I will either hedge the 3/ 2 selection or not.

My overall agenda is to reveal via the data a near concrete way of confidently and safely betting on three selections - one for the win spot, Alongside making the one of three selection win spot wager as concretely positive as possible my parallel agenda as a zed before is to Find the sweet spot within the spectrum of fluctuating odds between my selections and create a ready fast chart / table to not only quickly and accurately calculate whether or not to play a race but instead I want to base that decision upon setting a daily profit target.