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IMHO, the volatility of the tote board in this era makes it all but impossible to use as a line tool. Frankly, it was making me nuts, especially at the high rebate tracks where there is WAY MORE VOLATILITY.
I moved away from the tote board about 3.5 years ago. I (as well as many of my HSH users) use what we call "Object Odds."
That is, we use a 5-factor object to represent the odds. There are two static objects I suggest, one for low-rebate tracks and the other for high rebates. The difference is that the most important object for the low-rebate tracks is the morning line, while at the high rebate tracks it moves down to 3rd or 4th.
Personally, I do it dynamically (i.e. have the software build it "on-the-fly" from the database of "races like this one").
The output is clearly better than most morning lines but sometimes makes huge mistakes. For example, Just watched the 4th at PRX - very playable (40 units) - where we went in with 2 horses projected to be 7.3/1 and 12.8/1. We loaded on the 7/1 and watched as he paid $5.80.
I've also had horses projected to be 5/2 pay $28. LOL
Of course, it is usually better than that, but the point is IT WORKS for us.
That is, it allows us to forget about the tote board. Many of our users double-check the tote visually and some simply use the tote scraping capability built in at 0 or 1 minute to post. Personally, I find that the first update after 0 minutes is "good enough" to play but still makes me crazy.
Despite the occasional inaccuracies, most of the time our object odds are dead on with the low odds horses, especially in terms of public choice order.
I recently did a 150-race test and the average error was +/- .6 positions (in the odds), and in the top 3 choices the positional error is less than half that. There are a lot of 6 horse fields where it gets the order top to bottom.
I shown on several videos how to do this and will do so again in our upcoming (Late July) "Summer Seminar Series."
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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