Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
Look at it this way --
How many horses does a player win bet that turn out to be actual +EV overlays?
For me, a realistic number might be a handful out of say 65-80 runners on a given race card.
For others, your mileage may vary.
Now, how many +EV overlays can you realistically expect when a track employee creates a betting interest for Roulette where he takes that rare actual +EV overlay and combines it with other random horses? Thus diluting the value.
For me, the answer would be just about never.
But again, for others, your mileage may vary.
-jp
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Jeff, your thoughts pretty much echo the linked op/ed
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...ll-never-work/
But both of you are assuming there are not any overlays and the takeout will kill you. I disagree but the pools are small (most I have seen lately are in the $300 to $1200 range) and partly hidden (can find current odds, but not pool size before race)
If you add up the probabilities in each group and then compare odds, there are some bets. Here are a couple examples
52,41,7 -- 3/5, 1, 6
44,48,8 -- 2, 1/5, 5
