Once again we have three horses as clear favorites just like the Arkansas and Florida Derby and are left with eight longshots. This race will wind up with the exact same odds as the Arkansas race with Sierra Leone at 8-5, Dornoch at 2-1 and Just a Touch at 3-1. The big thing to keep in mind is Gargan just said Dornoch has to learn to rate and that will be the plan here. So he won't be on the lead unless he is lying or the jockey forgets the instructions.
Top Conor 15-1 ML He ain't no Taiba I can tell you that, because that is the kind of horse it takes for a three year old to go into a grade 1 mile and an eighth off of one career race. It simply can't be done unless you are immensely talented and this one isn't. TOSS
Be You 8-1 ML He may take some play being a Pletcher/Repole horse but his last two maiden races going long leave a lot to be desired. I guess you can make a case for him in the ass end of the super but a couple others look better to finish off the super. Difficult to see him hitting the tri.
Seize the Grey 20-1 ML Six straight races being in the super is a plus and he should like the distance out of Arrogate. He is one of several that can run in the back end of the super and his price will be huge. The problem is his Brisnet speed figures are all over the place, starting with 51, 89, 72, 86, 74, 92, 87.
Dornoch 3-1 ML Remember what Gargan said, that Dornoch will run a lot stronger next race, well here it is. He came from behind at the beginning of his career and if he can rate then he has an excellent chance at winning. He beat absolutely nothing in the FOY as the second and third place horses ran up the track in the Florida Derby. I see a huge race! THE PICK
Good Magic 20-1 He isn't getting away with 116.1 fractions this time. Ortiz took the
over this one. Both are Brown horses so that should tell you about this ones chances of getting a part of it. TOSS
Just a Touch 7-2 ML Both of his races were in the slop so we don't know whether he will improve, stay the same, or regress on a fast track. He worked a bullet on the fast track at Keenland two weeks ago and is out of Justify so he should like the dry track. Hard to see him out of the super as his Brisnet figures are on par with Dornoch. Can't argue with anyone who picks him to win.
Lat Long 30-1 ML Six for six in the money and has run against some good horses. His race at Keenland was solid behind Dornoch being on the lead which isn't his style. I could see him running fourth at a huge number.
Epic Ride 20-1 ML All his races have been at Turfway but he seems to work well on the dirt, including a 59 at Keenland two weeks ago. Lost the lead to the
last race and now it is a longer distance. Has a chance to be in the tri or super with another move forward.
Mugatu 30-1 ML We come to the third and final horse that I don't see as having any chance hitting the top four. Got buried by the
and
two back and his two dirt races are nothing to write home about. TOSS
Sierra Leone 2-1 ML The rematch with Dornoch is upon us and can't argue with anyone thinking he comes out on top this time. Impressed that he closed into slow fractions last time. Definite win candidate but I don't like dead closers to do it back to back. In the super seems almost certain.
Encino 12-1 ML Another with all his races at Turfway. His running style is God knows what. Huge closer, then wire to wire and then middle of the pack. His two workouts at Keenland weren't fast so maybe he prefers the fake crap. Post a drawback but his Brisnet numbers are improving from 78, 83, 91 so that is a positive sign. Another that could be in the super but others seem just a bit more playable for the fourth spot.
Like I said I am picking the
to win but I would be careful of playing the favorites to run 1-2-3. They almost always don't and there are enough decent horses that one of them may step up big time and run third. Deepest field of the three preps Saturday.
