Quote:
Originally Posted by Inner Dirt
Me too, I honestly think strong speed biases are not as common or last as long as ages ago. Like in the pre internet era.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
They are just as common, and they last just as long. It’s just that they are now overbet.
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I agree and disagree, I know they are over bet. At the Santa Anita winter meet that started Dec 26th, 1986 I do believe as they always started the day after Christmas around that era there was a speed bias that lasted 3-4 weeks. I am sure what we call a speed bias differs. Back then Delmar would have them regularly for weeks at a time. What I mean by speed bias is when a horse that must have the lead type who wins 20% of the time at $10k claimers jumps to $20k, then $40k and wins both going away setting fractions variant adjusted faster than usual and he had to battle for the lead.
If I was not light on cash right now I would go ring up a nice bill at DRF and start buying lifetime past performances and result charts. The biases can't be as common as the inner dirt track at the Big A is no more, Agua Caliente is long since shuttered, so is Pomona/Fairplex. One day at the inner dirt, I may have the charts somewhere in a computer file, all the pick 6 races were sprints, each one had a furious two horse battle for the lead gate to wire.
After 4 races they said on TVG only 4 live tickets remained for the Pick 6.
Game over, I had played a 2x2x2x2x2x2. Unfortunately for me there was no carryover and it was like a Wednesday, I got $36K, with those prices there were like 4 over $20, and only one favorite, that could have taken down a much larger pool.
Any of you guys saying I am full of it ever hear of a guy named Angel Cordero? He came west to race at Santa Anita. I do remember the horse's name Barb's Relic, I think it was a couple days into the 1986 winter meet.
If memory serves me correct it was his first mount of the meet and I don't think he had ever rode there. I don't know if the race was 6,6.5 or 7F. The horse has my best Beyer (I was using his methods) and also my best pace figures ( There were just shorter distance Beyers adjusted for track configuration) Off the top of my head Santa Anita was even and inner dirt was at +20 points.
I am concerned Angel will take a while to adjust to the speed favoring
track and come out stalking and lose because of the bias. I am ready to drop a $500 bomb and mind you I am 25 years old and that is close to a week's take home pay. I was by myself so no one to consult. I went over and downed a few shots of whiskey looking for courage. I settled on a $500 place bet at 5-1 doing the math on the tote board I figure at least $5 to place.
The gate opens, Angel whips the horse coming out of the gate to clear and get to the rail, game over, he paid like $12.60 to win, paid $5.60 to place.
Lack of huevos, lose out on an extra $1750. Who the hell lays into a horse right out of the gate?
