Since Songbird won in 2015, the BC Juvenile Fillies has been a terrible barometer of the 2yo filly crop. I think there's been a couple of Grade 3 wins between the last 4 winners.
In addition, since Songbird won, 3 other CA fillies (Moonshine Memories, Bellafina, Bast) have won both the DM Debutante and Oak Leaf and all failed miserably in the BC. Two were favored. Bast went off as an overlay, ran the best of the 3 and actually won a couple more races before retiring with injury. The other 2 were major disappointments, Bellafina mercifully retiring a couple of days ago.
On the plus side, I believe there was somewhat similar chatter about Songbird's figures being too low for the BC (definitely was the case for the male counterpart Nyquist).
That said, its hard to apply strict form using well beaten also-rans but NY and CA exchanged horses for their most recent 2yo filly events with Make Mischief (a distant 2nd to Thoughtfully in the Adirondack) getting buried in the Chandelier and Get On The Bus (no factor in the DM Debutante) left waiting for the bus in the Frizette.
Probably more significant is Thoughtfully switching from NY to KY and finding no extra on the stretch out in the Alcibiades.
So I look to Kentucky. At this early stage looks like Girl Daddy over Simply Ravishing. If Thoughtfully is simply held off the pace instead of the curious grand tour trip her jock gave her in the Alcibiades she can rally late and tag Dayoutoftheoffice for 3rd.
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