Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
I have talked a ton about Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Audible so I will set them aside ....
Good Magic beat Bolt
Good Magic is coming up to a lifetime best
Bolt hit his peak in the Frontrunner as a 2yr old and never progressed off that.
Good Magic looks like he wants the added distance .... Bolt not so much
Bolt had his jockey leave for greener pastures . Jose Ortiz staying put.
They will be roughly the same odds and you think Bolt offers the better value ?
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lets talk real talk about the Juvenile.
Good Magic final 5/16 and 1/16 was 30.96 and 6.35 Bolt's was 31.17 and 6.44. So Good magic did run slightly over a length better over the last 5/16 but does anyone know how much further Bolt ran in the race? Id imagine it was a bunch, he was what? 6 wide around both turns maybe and Good magic got a perfect trip. If the same thing happens in the Derby and Good Magic gets the best possible trip and Bolt d'Oro gets the worst possible trip/ride id expect Good Magic to beat Bolt by the same amount maybe even more. My guess is Espinoza will be quite an upgrade over Nakatani. If you assume a horse length is 8 feet then Good Magic beat Bolt by 42 feet. Id guess Bolt lost more ground than that. Trips matter, if every horse was guaranteed the same trip the best horse on that day would always win.
Bolt d'Oro is a more naturally talented horse than Good Magic and if the trainers were flipped it wouldnt even be a conversation. Good Magic would never be even close to McKinzie. Chad Brown is a great trainer. Thats the main advantage Good Magic has. The pure hatred for Bolt d'Oro is mind boggling. Lets spin stats on all the other contenders too... smh... Yeah he didnt hit the wire in front of McKinzie and Justify, most of these horses wouldnt.
