Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Yes, that’s correct.
Basic 2-Entry Dutch Win Bet when both are @ 2/1 odds
Code:
LOW HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.0 2.0 BET PRF
$6 $6
$6 $6 $12 $6 50%
$18 $18
When playing Hong Kong I only look for 3-Entry Dutch Win bets that will provide a greater than 50% Profit margin..
In the example above in Sunday’s Race 2 - #11 = 1.9/1 (2.9HK) / #1 = 2.7/1 (3.7HK) / #3 = 9/1 (10HK)
This was a pass because the Profit margin was less than 50%.
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.9 2.7 9.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $20
$20 $16 $6 $41 $17 40%
$58 $58 $58
|
Ok, I think I understand what is being done here...so in simpler terms
1. Pick 3 horses (example, 10-1, 20-1, 30-1)
2. Take the longest odds horse and assign an arbitrary number of bets to it, then calculate the return....the 30-1 is longest, so: 3 bets @$2 each for $6 total; Since a 30-1 pays $62 for each $2 bet, the combined projected winnings would be $186.
3. Now calculate the other 2 runners by dividing this number $186 by what the others would pay, $186 divided by $42 (for the 20-1), and $186 divided by $22 (for the 10-1): see below:
$186 divided by $62 = (3) $2 bets
$186 divided by $42 = (4.4) $2 bets
$186 divided by $22 = (8.4) $2 bets
4. Now add up the total number of $2 bets to arrive at the total amount wagered...in this case, 3 + 4.4 + 8.4 = 15.8 bets @ $2 each, that equals $32 (rounded up slightly).
5. Now subtract the amount wagered in bets by the projected amount of winnings...in this case $186-$32=$154. This is your profit amount.
6. Then, divide the profit amount by the amount bet...in this case $154 divided by $32 = 4.81 This is your profit Rate.
7. Finally, multiply profit Rate by 100 to arrive at Profit Percentage:
4.81 x 100 = 481% ROI
Most examples using 3 lower odds horses will be much lower...and anything above 50% ROI would be Playable.
Nitro, please review this and let me know if I have this process correct, thanks.
