Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Using public odds as part of line making always struck me as an admission that your own model is not considering some relevant factors and/or not weighting some of them properly.
I'll be the first to admit that sometimes I don't know all the relevant information, misinterpret information, don't weigh things correctly etc.. So adding in public odds will make my overall odds lines more accurate.
But the goal in gambling is to find situations where the public is wrong.
For example, if I started handicapping races at Hastings (a place I almost never play) there's no doubt that adding in public odds would make my overall odds lines way more accurate.
But would that help me win?
If I happen to have a specific trainer pattern there that the public is not aware of yet, the last thing I want to do is add in the public odds. I already know that relevant information is missing. That's why I am considering a wager.
The goal isn't making more accurate lines.
The goal is finding races where the public is wrong.
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I would think adding in the public odds as a factor will help eliminate blatant errors in a personal odds line.
